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INFO RUCNCAN/ALCAN COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 TORONTO 000090 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON CA
SUBJECT: No Push for Elections as Canadians Focus on Local Issues 
 
 
Sensitive But Unclassified - Please protect accordingly. 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  Mission Canada reporting officers concur that, 
from the brink of defeat in the fall of 2007, Conservative Prime 
Minister Stephen Harper's government has established itself as a 
stable minority government, pushing through a relatively impressive 
policy agenda such as a renewed commitment to Canadian engagement in 
Afghanistan, Haiti and Darfur; domestic security measures such as 
the Omnibus crime bill and a refined security-certificate process; 
and significant tax cuts.   On March 25 Mission Canada reporting 
officers concluded that Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper's 
government draws its stability from different sources across the 
country.  Provincial governments and the populations they represent 
(except Ontario; Newfoundland and Labrador; and Nova Scotia) are 
either focused more on local issues or have established a relatively 
peaceful relationship with the Harper-led federal government. 
Across the country the federal Liberals-particularly Leader Stephane 
Dion-- are perceived to be weak, ineffectual, and incapable of 
forming an effective opposition, let alone a viable alternative to 
Harper's Conservatives.  Economic and environmental concerns tend to 
dominate voters' minds in eastern Canada, with crime a higher 
priority in the west.  This first country-wide DVC dialogue among 
reporting officers from eight Mission Canada posts reflected the 
wide variety of issues and diversity of provincial government 
configurations, illustrated the difficulty of generalizing political 
developments, and underscored the delicate balancing act the federal 
government faces, especially in a minority status.  END SUMMARY. 
 
---------------------- 
Mission Canada Confers 
---------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) Mission Canada reporting officers on March 25 initiated a new 
monthly DVC forum to focus on political and economic issues by 
exchanging views and offering different local and provincial 
perspectives on national issues.  The kick-off topic was the 
perception of the performance of the Harper government so far, and 
prospects for a new federal election.  Reporting officers from all 
Canada posts took part, as well as representatives from WHA/CAN. 
 
---------------------- 
The Provinces Make Do 
---------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Across Canada, most provinces are relatively satisfied with 
Prime Minister Stephen Harper's leadership, or are so absorbed in 
their own provincial issues that a change in federal leadership is 
seen as unwanted and/or unnecessary.  Big picture national issues 
such as Afghanistan do not appear to have traction in the day-to-day 
provincial evaluations of the federal government's performance. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Given PM Harper's roots in Western Canada, support for the 
Conservatives in Alberta and neighboring Saskatchewan remains high. 
Some ConGen Calgary contacts have complained that Harper's 
government is insufficiently accommodating on issues important to 
Western Canadians, such as emissions regulations and climate change. 
 However, given the Liberal alternative, a significant reduction in 
support for the Conservatives is extremely unlikely, a trend 
reflected in the overwhelming victory of Alberta Premier Ed 
Stelmach's Progressive Conservative party on March 3, and the 
election win by center-right Saskatchewan Party Premier Brad Wall in 
November 2007. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Further west in British Columbia, the flourishing economy 
and uniquely independent character of the BC Liberals in the 
provincial government have enabled them to establish a cooperative 
and generally positive relationship with the federal government. 
With the 2010 Olympics rapidly approaching, the provincial 
government is busy creating the fundamentals to solidify lasting 
economic growth, including the Pacific Gateway, and is implementing 
new programs that largely complement federal economic initiatives. 
Currently, there does not appear to be a groundswell of support in 
BC for change at the federal level. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Dalton McGuinty's Ontario government, in contrast, has 
staked out policy priorities intentionally designed to contrast with 
the government in Ottawa.  The ongoing partisan spat between the 
Ontario Finance Minister Dwight Duncan and federal Finance Minister 
Jim Flaherty over Ontario's business tax policy is just one of an 
ongoing series of conflicts.  Targeted assistance to Ontario's 
ailing manufacturers is another major area of disagreement. 
Neither the Ontario government nor federal ministers have concealed 
their respective desires for different partners (Note: Prime 
Minister Stephen Harper and Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty appeared 
to have at least temporarily buried the hatchet on March 27 when 
they jointly  announced C$709 million in federal support for 
provincial assistance programs.  End Note). 
 
¶7. (SBU) In Atlantic Canada, the long-standing sense of neglect 
compared to the rest of the country continues to varying degrees. 
Newfoundland and Labrador's Premier Danny Williams, although a 
Conservative himself, has vowed to campaign actively against the 
 
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Harper government in the next federal election.  "Anyone but 
Conservative," is his battle cry.  Similarly, but with less vitriol, 
Nova Scotia's Rodney MacDonald (also a Conservative) has had 
problems with how PM Harper has treated his province, although there 
are recent signs of an incipient rapprochement between the two 
leaders.  In contrast, New Brunswick's Liberal Premier Shawn Graham 
has established a solid working relationship with the federal 
government.  Despite their misgivings about the federal government, 
absent a more competitive federal Liberal alternative, there is not 
a widespread appetite among Atlantic Canadians for a federal 
election at this time. 
 
¶8. (SBU) In Quebec, home of significant Conservative breakthroughs 
in the 2006 federal election, PM Harper has been surprisingly 
successful.  His 2007 motion to recognize Quebec as a "nation within 
Canada" was a strategic victory that continues to work to his 
benefit.  Harper gets credit for delivering the programs he promised 
during the election campaign.  He has a politically pragmatic 
relationship with Premier Charest.  While the federal Liberals may 
still be strong in Montreal, in the rest of Quebec, a visceral 
distaste for Stephane Dion leaves the Conservatives as the only 
viable alternative to the Bloc Quebecois. 
 
------------------------------- 
Stephane Dion: Who is This Guy? 
------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) Provincial contacts across the country have commented that 
Stephane Dion's leadership has been a disaster and that the Liberals 
are currently not in a position successfully to contest an election. 
 Dion's perceived ineptness has proven to be a source of stability 
for the minority Harper government.  Conservative insiders in 
Vancouver and Toronto have noted that Dion is a "better" alternative 
from the Conservative perspective than any of the other potential 
Liberal leaders, who might provide stronger leadership in 
opposition.  The recent by-election victory of Liberal foreign 
affairs critic Bob Rae is a reminder that the federal Liberals have 
several high-profile, politically talented personalities who could 
credibly assume the party's leadership mantle upon Dion's departure. 
 
 
¶10. (SBU) While merely unpopular in most of the country, Dion is 
still reviled as "traitor" in large parts of Quebec due to his past 
strident opposition of Quebec sovereignty, and, especially his role 
in the federal Clarity Act which sets the guidelines for any new 
Quebec referendum on secession.  By-election defeats and criticism 
of his Quebec "team" have contributed to the decline of the party in 
areas outside Montreal. 
 
¶11. (SBU) Apart from Dion's leadership problems, the Federal 
Liberals might be financially unable effectively to contest an 
election if they were to bring the government down, contacts have 
noted.  Though Ottawa-based Liberal leaders have denied that the 
party is in financial trouble, several failed candidates from the 
2006 leadership race are still paying off debts resulting from the 
campaign (Note:  This week deputy Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff 
and Stephane Dion were both in Montreal independently fundraising 
for their separate campaign debts - the former asking C$1,000, and 
the latter C$100 per attendee.  End Note). 
 
----------------------------- 
Key Election Issues, Whenever 
----------------------------- 
 
¶12. (SBU) Whenever the next federal election is held, different 
issues will come to the fore in each region of Canada. The economy 
will likely be the highest priority issue for Canadians in Atlantic 
Canada (economic and resource development); Quebec and Ontario 
(manufacturing slow-down); and Alberta and British Columbia 
(maintaining economic growth).  Crime is a key election issue for 
Manitobans and British Columbians.  Environmental issues are 
important to Quebecers, Ontarians, Manitobans, and British 
Columbians.  Social issues are important in Alberta (health, 
education, and affordable housing), Quebec (health, education, and 
immigration), and the Atlantic provinces (out-migration). 
 
¶13. (SBU) Canadians seem to be universally fascinated with the U.S. 
Presidential election, with some Canadian political activists musing 
to us about how they would like to "volunteer" to work on a 
particular U.S. presidential campaign.  Many of our interlocutors 
across the country quickly change the subject from the prospects for 
a Canadian federal election to what is happening in the U.S. 
Presidential election.  We believe Canadians would by and large 
prefer to watch the U.S. election through to its conclusion before 
thinking about heading to their own polls to vote for the next 
Canadian federal government. 
 
¶14. (SBU) COMMENT:  Across Canada, there is little appetite for an 
early federal election or significant desire for the fall of the 
Harper government.  Among the various key priority issues at the 
provincial level, it was striking that none of the posts cited 
border issues or WHTI as a major local concern.  This first 
 
TORONTO 00000090  003 OF 003 
 
 
country-wide DVC dialogue among reporting officers from eight 
Mission Canada posts reflected the wide variety of issues and 
diversity of provincial government configurations, illustrated the 
difficulty of generalizing political developments, and underscored 
the delicate balancing act the federal government faces, especially 
in a minority status.  Canada is an immense country where the gaze 
of the population is as often focused southward on political and 
economic developments in the United States  -- particularly at this 
time given the U.S. presidential campaign -- as on issues with 
east-west resonance across Canada.  END COMMENT. 
 
NAY