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RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000287 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/03/2018 
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: DIRECTOR AND KMT PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE MA 
YING-JEOU DISCUSS CROSS-STRAIT POLICY, CAMPAIGN ISSUES 
 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young, 
 Reason: Sec 1.4 (a/b/d) 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1.  (C) During a March 2 meeting with Director Young, KMT 
presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou sketched out his plans to 
quickly expand cross-strait direct flights and tourism, while 
acknowledging this would require a spirit of reciprocity and 
openness on the part of Beijing to a new relationship with 
Taiwan.  Ma was careful not to define the extent of his lead 
over Frank Hsieh in internal KMT polls, but made it clear he 
remains worried that  DPP campaigning and "dirty tricks" 
could narrow the contest in the remaining weeks before March 
¶22.  DIR noted some pressing issues the next president of 
Taiwan will have to address in the U.S.-Taiwan relationship. 
End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (C) Director Young met KMT presidential candidate Ma 
Ying-jeou on March 2 to discuss campaign issues in the last 
weeks before Taiwan's presidential elections (consular issues 
covered Septel).  DIR asked for Ma's interpretation of last 
week's decision by the South Korean government to bar both 
DPP NSC Secretary General Mark Chen and KMT Speaker of the 
Legislative Yuan Wang Jin-pyng from participating in the new 
ROK President's inauguration ceremony.  Ma admitted this was 
a setback to Taiwan, which highlighted the challenges the 
island's next leader would face.  The Chinese MFA was 
particularly aggressive in seeking to prevent any expansion 
of Taiwan's "international space," Ma continued, and this 
policy would continue until China's MFA was directed to 
change by top PRC leaders.  Ma believed there was a framework 
for resolving such questions as part of broader 
liberalization of cross-strait ties, based upon Lien Chan's 
2005 accord with Hu Jintao. Ma delineated three areas of 
special concern:  peace, which would  take some time, 
prosperity, i.e. broadening the scope of cross strait trade 
and investment, including the expansion of direct flights; 
and international space, meaning reaching some understanding 
that would end the zero-sum Chinese approach to Taiwan 
participation in international organizations as well as the 
cutthroat competition over Taiwan's dwindling stable of 
diplomatic allies.  He planned to test Hu's sincerity to move 
forward in these areas early in his tenure, if elected. 
 
¶3.  (C) A key priority was liberalization of direct flights 
and expansion of PRC tourism to Taiwan by July first.  This 
was timed to permit Taiwan to enjoy some spillover from the 
many international tourists coming to Beijing for the August 
Olympics, as well as to fulfill Ma's pledge to quickly expand 
the volume of PRC tourists to Taiwan to 3000 a day.  This 
proposal had been warmly embraced by Taiwan's tourism 
industry, which he claimed already has the infrastructure in 
place to accommodate these numbers.  That said, Ma told us he 
has underscored the importance of having Taiwan's tourism 
adjust to the needs of mainland tourists, if it was to keep 
the numbers flowing.  Increasing from one million mainland 
tourists a year to higher target numbers would depend on 
making this adjustment.  But Ma seemed confident this could 
work, to the benefit of the local economy here. 
 
¶4.  (C) DIR took this opportunity to push for expanded 
cross-strait direct flights to include third country 
nationals.  This would address longtime concerns of 
international business, by allowing their executives and 
other employees to travel easily from one side of the strait 
to the other.  Ma readily agreed, adding that this would also 
promote greater China tourism.  But he also suggested his 
first priority was to open up charter flights for Taiwan and 
PRC passengers, then move on to this second stage.  DIR 
cautioned that it might be harder to broach this topic later 
if it wasn't placed on the agenda early on, and Ma agreed to 
consider the idea. 
 
¶5.  (C) DIR asked Ma to comment on KMT Chairman Wu 
Poh-hsiung's weekend comment that Ma's lead over Frank Hsieh 
was now only ten percent.  Ma professed not to be clear as to 
just what Wu was referring to, but he quickly went on to 
 
TAIPEI 00000287  002 OF 002 
 
 
suggest his lead was actually higher.  Without giving 
numbers, Ma claimed there had been very little change since 
last summer in his lead over Hsieh, according to various 
internal polls.  Hsieh's support numbers had climbed a couple 
of points, but so had Ma's, suggesting merely that undecided 
voters were shifting over to the two camps in equal numbers. 
Pushed to discuss his own internal poll numbers, Ma 
sidestepped, saying merely that a TVBS (a pro-Blue television 
station) poll over the weekend had Ma ahead of Hsieh by a 
margin of 54 to 30.  But Ma went on to express worry that the 
DPP was prepared to continue to hammer the green card issue 
and perhaps introduce other "dirty tricks" in an attempt to 
narrow the gap.  (Note: Global Views Monthly Polling Center 
Director Tai Li-an told AIT that Wu's ten percent figure came 
from a special internal KMT poll whose questions were 
specially designed to show the worst-case results for Ma in 
the presidential election.) 
 
¶6.  (C) DIR highlighted some ongoing issues that would have 
to be briefed to whoever wins March 22's contest.  This list 
included Taiwan's program to develop offensive missiles, the 
management of bilateral security cooperation programs, fully 
opening up of Taiwan's market to beef and liberalization of 
conditions surrounding the import of U.S. pork, and 
preparation for the next round of Trade and Investment 
Framework Agreement (TIFA) talks here in Taipei this summer. 
With a change of administrations coming up in the U.S. in 
January, 2009, it would be important for Taiwan's next 
president to move swiftly to address these issues in the 
first months of his presidency.  Ma welcomed the opportunity 
to engage on these subjects if elected. 
 
¶7.  (C) In closing, DIR stressed the care with which AIT and 
the USG continue to approach our exchanges with the 
candidates, in an effort to prevent leaks which could be 
manipulated by the two parties or the Taiwan media to imply a 
U.S. bias on the election.  He urged the KMT to respect this 
proprietary approach to our discussions. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶8.  (C) Though still seemingly confident in his lead, Ma was 
at his most emotional in revealing fear that his opponent was 
still planning further unpleasant surprises ("dirty tricks") 
between now and election day that could sway the outcome 
against him. 
YOUNG