VZCZCXRO3417
RR RUEHCHI RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHJS #0040 0850733
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 250733Z MAR 08
FM AMCONSUL SURABAYA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0185
RUEHJA/AMEMBASSY JAKARTA 0172
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 0097
RUEHCAA/GEOLOGICAL SURVEY DEPT OF INTERIOR WASHINGTON DC
RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON 0095
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 0040
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEHJS/AMCONSUL SURABAYA 0190

UNCLAS SURABAYA 000040 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, INR/EAP, EB/ESC/IES 
DOE FOR CUTLER/PI-32 AND NAKANO/PI-42 
COMMERCE FOR USDOC 4430 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EPET ENRG PGOV ASEC EAID ID
SUBJECT: EAST JAVA: MUDFLOW UPDATE:  DEMONSTRATORS BLOCK MAIN ROAD; 
DEMAND COMPENSATION; POLITICAL STAKES INCREASE 
 
REF: A. SURABAYA 29 (FLAMES AND GEYSERS) 
 
     ¶B. SURABAYA 27 AND PREVIOUS 
 
This message is sensitive but unclassified.  Please protect 
accordingly. 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: On March 24, residents of nine villages whose 
homes are being destroyed by the unabated mudflow took their 
demands for compensation to the street -- blocking the primary 
transportation corridor linking Surabaya with the rest of East 
Java for over eight hours.  The blockade was lifted only after 
the Governor of East Java promised to meet with the 
demonstrators on March 25.  Residents are demanding their 
villages be included in compensation plans, although their homes 
have yet to be submerged in mud.  Gubernatorial candidates are 
attempting to keep out of this political quagmire, and offer few 
indications of how they would address the mudflow with Jakarta. 
As the mudflow, land subsidence, flaming geysers, and leaking 
methane affect ever widening areas and transportation 
bottlenecks affect provincial economics, local observers predict 
that the mud may become a powerful election issue in both the 
2008 gubernatorial and 2009 presidential elections.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Thousands of victims of the Sidoarjo mudflow took to 
the streets of Porong on March 24, demanding that the central 
government include their villages in compensation plans. 
Residents of Siring Barat, Jatirejo Barat, Mindi, Ketapang, 
Plumbon, Kalitengah, Glagaharum, Panjotan, and Gedang initiated 
their blockade of road and rail transportation routes linking 
Surabaya and East Java at 0900.  The demonstration created 
gridlock throughout surrounding areas, cancelling trains and 
disrupting shipping schedules.  The demonstrators demanded that 
the central government include their villages in the impact map 
that authorizes compensation as the increasing incidences of 
land subsidence, geysers, and methane leaks threaten their 
homes.  After a late-afternoon meeting with the Deputy Regent of 
Sidoarjo, the demonstrators agreed to reopen the road on the 
condition that the Governor of East Java meet with them 
personally the following afternoon. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Handoko Teguh from the Sidoarjo Mud Management Board 
(BPLS) told ConGen Surabaya that the villagers were unhappy with 
the central government's recent decision to compensate victims 
from three recently inundated villages (Kedungcangkring, Jabon, 
and Besuki Kulon) from the state budget rather than adding these 
areas to the impact map.  Victims located within the boundaries 
of the impact map qualify for compensation from Lapindo, the 
company accused of triggering the mudflow.  The ongoing rainy 
season has seen an increased incidence of dam collapses, 
widespread land subsidence, and the emergence of new flaming 
geysers and methane bubbles in the residential areas surrounding 
the mudflow containment areas. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Professor Aribowo, a political observer from Airlangga 
University, told ConGen Surabaya that the protestors are fed up 
with promises from the local and provincial governments that 
their grievances will be raised with the central government. 
Aribowo suggested that it was time for the central government to 
visit the site and revise the impact map accordingly to allow 
all victims to receive appropriate compensation.  Failure to 
demonstrate sufficient concern, he concluded, would see the 
central government's image drop rapidly.  (Note: President 
Yudhoyono (SBY) has flown over the site, but never visited. 
SBY enjoyed widespread support in East Java during the 2004 
presidential elections. End Note.)  Aribowo added that it wasn't 
difficult to predict that additional villages will soon become 
victims as the area effected by the mudflow continues to grow. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Radio callers during the standoff in Porong asked why 
none of the gubernatorial candidates were taking a position on 
the mudflow.  Aribowo, who also works as an expert for the East 
Java parliament and has contact with the various gubernatorial 
campaign teams, surmised that the candidates have no idea how to 
handle the problems in Porong.  He added that the candidates do 
not dare to raise this issue publicly for fear of creating 
conflicts with the power elite in Jakarta.  Kiai Ali Maschan 
Moesa, the chairman of East Java NU and a Golkar vice 
gubernatorial candidate, told local TV station JTV that the 
victims of the mudflow should be moved quickly so that Porong 
could become a "tourist resort." 
 
MCCLELLAND