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DE RUEHSH #0038/01 0810804
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 210804Z MAR 08
FM AMCONSUL SHENYANG
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INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE
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RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC 0100
RHMFISS/COMUSKOREA J2 SEOUL KOR
RUEKJCS/DIA WASHDC 0073
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RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
RHMFISS/SACINCUNC SEOUL KOR
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC 0095
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 0539
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0020

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SHENYANG 000038 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EAP/CM, EAP/K, PRM 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: TEN YEARS AFTER KOREAN UNIFICATION 
TAGS: PREF PREL PINR PGOV KN KS CH
SUBJECT: NORTH KOREAN BORDER-CROSSERS: PRC OLYMPICS 
WORRIES; CHINESE RESEARCHER ON RECENT TRENDS 
 
REF: 07 SHENYANG 229 
 
Classified By: CONSUL GENERAL STEPHEN B. WICKMAN. 
REASONS: 1.4(b)/(d). 
 
 ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Two Chinese provincial governments hosting 
Olympics events this summer have enlisted Korea specialists 
to investigate potential contingencies involving North 
Korean border-crossers or activists that support them. 
Scholars in Liaoning and Shandong have told us they are 
keeping a close watch on U.S.-based NGOs active on DPRK 
human-rights issues, among others.  North Korean border- 
crossings into China in early 2008 remain at levels similar 
to last year, despite the acute agricultural difficulties 
facing the DPRK over the past year, according to a Chinese 
Government scholar whose research suggests that increasing 
numbers of North Koreans wish to stay in China instead of 
resettling in South Korea.  END SUMMARY. 
 
NORTH KOREAN BORDER-CROSSERS AND OLYMPICS SECURITY 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
¶2. (C) Two provincial governments set to host Olympics 
events this summer enlisted a number of government scholars 
to investigate possible Olympics security problems, 
including potential incidents involving North Korean 
border-crossers or activists that support them.  In 
Shenyang, which will host some of the Olympics soccer 
events in August, the Liaoning Academy of Social Sciences' 
LU Chao (STRICTLY PROTECT), a DPRK"expert who researches 
North Korean border-crossers for the PRC Government, was 
instructed by the Liaoning provincial government to examine 
ROK- and U.S.-based human-rights groups active on North 
Korean border-crosser issues.  Lu told Poloff February 22 
that he briefed the Liaoning provincial leadership, the 
Liaoning Public Security Bureau and other government organs 
on the circumstances of North Korean border-crossers in 
Liaoning Province and northeast China more broadly. 
 
¶3. (C) Another two scholars from Shandong Province, which 
will host sailing events in Qingdao, were tasked with 
exploring similar issues (see reftel for background). 
While visiting Shenyang March 18, LI Chunwang (STRICTLY 
PROTECT), Vice Director of Yantai University's East Asia 
Research Institute, and SUN Jingquan (STRICTLY PROTECT), an 
Associate Professor there, told Poloff they currently study 
how the Shandong provincial government might prevent and/or 
handle incidents involving North Korean border-crossers, 
Falun Gong adherents and human-rights activists.  Sun 
pointed to recent events in Tibet as an example of the type 
of "unpredictable" event the Shandong government is eager 
to avoid.  Both scholars claimed most potential "problems" 
were likely to originate domestically.  At the same time, 
they were clearly fishing for the names of individual U.S. 
journalists and news outlets planning to cover Shandong 
during the Olympics; specific areas to which they might 
seek to travel; and political stories in which they might 
be interested. 
 
¶4. (C) On the question of a potential border-crosser 
related contingency in Shandong before or during the 
Olympics, Li and Sun said they will recommend the Shandong 
government emphasize early "intelligence" and "prevention" 
to ensure that authorities can "quietly" make arrests out 
of the public eye.  Failing this, both claimed they will 
advise against apprehending North Koreans publicly, for to 
do otherwise might prove "embarrassing" for China and, 
perhaps, a third country (in the event of an intrusion into 
a diplomatic facility). 
 
NORTH KOREAN BORDER-CROSSERS IN EARLY 2008 
------------------------------------------ 
¶5. (C) Into the first quarter of 2008, North Korean border- 
crossings are still at the relatively low levels seen last 
year, according to the Liaoning Academy of Social Science's 
Lu, who in the past has claimed to have access to Chinese 
statistics through research he conducts on the issue for 
the Liaoning Government.  Notable this year, he claimed, is 
that overall numbers of North Koreans crossing into China 
 
SHENYANG 00000038  002 OF 002 
 
 
remain low despite the "more severe" agricultural/other 
problems besetting North Korea since last year (e.g., 
floods, fall-off in international aid).  On repatriation 
levels, Lu noted he has yet to see the final 2007 year-end 
tallies, but he said they are relatively "low."  Asked to 
elaborate, he claimed "high" levels in recent years 
involved "as many as three thousand" repatriations, while 
"low" levels hovered around "one thousand or several 
hundreds." 
 
¶6. (C) Queried on recent trends, Lu claimed his research 
suggests that, compared to earlier years, fewer and fewer 
North Koreans now wish to resettle in the ROK after 
crossing into China.  Larger numbers now seek to stay in 
China for an extended period.  Some of the root causes of 
this shift, he said, include the drop in ROKG resettlement 
funds to pay North Koreans; greater interest in U.S. 
resettlement following the publicity of the North Korean 
Human Rights Act; the proximity of China to North Korea, 
making contact with remaining family easier; and the 
alienation encountered by North Koreans resettled in the 
South.  Lu emphasized the painful social isolation North 
Koreans arriving in South Korea have discovered after being 
released from the resettlement center at Hanawon.  Lu 
recounted the story of one North Korean he knows in 
Shenyang who, because of what she experienced in the ROK 
after successfully fleeing North Korea, moved back to China 
after securing a South Korean passport.  Today she works 
for a South Korean firm in Shenyang, where Lu claims she is 
more comfortable. 
 
¶7. (C) Lu believes divergent North Korean domestic 
perceptions of China and the ROK may also play a part.  He 
recalled the experience of another North Korean border- 
crosser whom he met in Shenyang, where she now lives sub 
rosa.  Both her parents are Korean Workers Party (KWP) 
officials still living in the DPRK who have to date 
encountered no political difficulties, despite their 
friends and neighbors knowing about the daughter's flight 
to China.  The North Korean told Lu that had she gone to 
the ROK instead, her parents would have suffered severe 
consequences because of the disparate perceptions of China 
and the ROK in the North. 
WICKMAN