VZCZCXRO9347
RR RUEHBW RUEHPOD
DE RUEHPOD #0093/01 0791522
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 191522Z MAR 08
FM AMEMBASSY PODGORICA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0704
INFO RUEHBW/AMEMBASSY BELGRADE 0317
RUEHVB/AMEMBASSY ZAGREB 0130
RUEHPS/USOFFICE PRISTINA 0081
RUEHVJ/AMEMBASSY SARAJEVO 0068
RUEHPOD/AMEMBASSY PODGORICA 0778

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PODGORICA 000093 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV MW
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:  WHAT'S AT STAKE 
 
REF: PODGORICA 088 AND PREVIOUS 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Montenegro will hold presidential elections on 
April 6, with a runoff on April 20 if no candidate gets more 
than 50 percent of the vote in the first round.  The President 
has limited and largely ceremonial powers, but as the head of 
state he commands authority beyond his formal prerogatives. 
Although incumbent President Vujanovic leads significantly in 
the polls, this election is being hotly contested by the top 
three opposition leaders.  This is also a race for primacy among 
opposition candidates.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
 
Presidential Powers Limited... 
 
------------------------------ 
 
 
 
¶2. (U) According to the Constitution, Montenegro's President has 
limited rights and responsibilities.  He or she: 
 
 
 
-- represents Montenegro in the country and abroad; 
 
-- commands the armed forces, on the basis of decisions taken by 
the Defense and Security Council; 
 
-- promulgates laws by ordinance (Note:  The President can also 
veto legislation; the Parliament may override the veto with a 
simple majority, or by two-thirds vote in the case of specific 
legislation spelled out in the Constitution); 
 
-- announces parliamentary elections; 
 
-- nominates to the Parliament:  candidates for PM (after 
consulting with political parties); the Chief Justice and judges 
of the Constitutional Court; and the Protector of Human Rights; 
 
-- appoints and recalls ambassadors and head of diplomatic 
missions of Montenegro abroad, at the proposal of the Government 
and after obtaining the opinion of the parliamentary committee 
responsible for international relations; 
 
-- receives letters of accreditation from foreign ambassadors; 
 
-- awards medals and honors; 
 
-- grants amnesty; and 
 
-- performs other duties stipulated by the Constitution or the 
law. 
 
 
 
¶3. (U) (Note:  President Vujanovic has a staff of about 30, 
divided between a Cabinet and a General Secretariat.  The former 
consists of Vujanovic's chiefs of staff and protocol, as well as 
advisors for international relations, national security, 
economic relations, human rights and minorities, and security 
policy.  The latter, headed by a Secretary General, includes 
offices for petitions, amnesty, and awards.  End Note.) 
 
 
 
¶4. (U) In contrast, the Prime Minister and the Parliament have 
considerably more authority.  Among other powers, the Government 
manages domestic and foreign policy, enforces laws, adopts 
decrees and signs international agreements, and proposes the 
state budget and the national security and defense strategy. 
The Parliament, among other powers, passes laws, proclaims war 
and emergencies, adopts the budget and national security and 
defense strategy, authorizes the use of Montenegrin armed forces 
abroad, calls national referendums, and elects and dismisses the 
government, chief prosecutor, and central bank. 
 
 
 
...But Race Still Matters 
 
------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) The fact that the president's formal powers are limited 
does not mean this election is unimportant: 
 
 
 
PODGORICA 00000093  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
-- As head of state, the President has moral authority and media 
access with which to criticize (or support) the Government, 
promote his or her own vision of Montenegro's future, and/or 
propose alternative policies and positions.  The President's 
ability to veto legislation is a powerful tool, and, as in any 
institution, a strong personality also exercises authority 
beyond his or her formal powers. 
 
 
 
-- The President also chairs the Council for National Security, 
the triumvirate (including the PM and Speaker of Parliament) 
that commands the armed forces.  At present, all three members 
are from the ruling coalition. 
 
 
 
-- While Vujanovic has a big lead and will most probably be 
reelected, a strong opposition showing would be symbolically 
significant in demonstrating that the Democratic Party of 
Socialists (DPS) -- which has had a virtual monopoly on power 
for 17-plus years (as one of the successors to the Communists) 
-- is politically vulnerable.  Opposition candidates at a 
minimum want to force a runoff election in order to spoil the 
DPS aura of invincibility and to draw further attention to 
substantive differences with DPS policies. 
 
 
 
-- There is a race within a race between Nebojsa Medojevic 
(PzP), Andrija Mandic (SNS), and Srdjan Milic (SNP) for primacy 
among opposition parties going into the 2009 parliamentary 
elections.  Medojevic wants to restore his (self-promoted) claim 
to be the opposition's standard-bearer, while Mandic wants to 
show that he has appeal beyond anti-independence Serbs.  Milic 
is in a fight for his political life, as he has seen his 
potential constituency squeezed by the more charismatic 
Medojevic and the more radical Mandic. 
 
 
 
-- The election is a marker of Montenegro's democratic 
development.  A free and fair election meeting international 
standards would boost the country's case for integration into 
Euro-Atlantic institutions.  Conversely, a race marred by 
violations would provide skeptics with ammunition to slow 
integration.  Already, opposition leaders are charging that the 
ruling DPS is buying votes, paying opponents to temporarily 
surrender their ID cards, and abusing state resources. 
Presidential candidate Medojevic even told the Ambassador on 
3/19 that the DPS campaign is being financed in part through a 5 
million euro donation from a Rozaje narco-trafficker 
 
 
 
-- Finally, this will be the first election in over a decade not 
dominated by the issue of independence -- at least not overtly. 
(Note:  The September 2006 parliamentary elections occurred 
after independence, but the referendum's conduct and results 
still dominated that campaign.)  Montenegro's politicians have a 
chance to move beyond existential questions to focus on issues 
which are now of everyday concern to voters, such as the 
economy, jobs, regional inequality, corruption, and the tradeoff 
between development and environmental protection, as well as 
larger questions regarding Montenegro's foreign policy 
orientation. 
 
 
 
Comment 
 
------- 
 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) Montenegro is the only country in eastern and central 
Europe in which the government has not changed since the fall of 
communism.  Opposition politicians profess confidence that the 
election will go to a second round, despite mid-February polls 
showing Vujanovic's support at close to 50 percent.  Ironically, 
it is Vujanovic, not Mandic, who appears to be dwelling most on 
the issue of independence.  Vujanovic has stressed on a number 
of occasions that he represents the party that brought 
Montenegro statehood. Mandic, because he already has strong 
support among anti-independence Serbs and is now seeking to 
broaden his electorate, has not publicly questioned statehood. 
Mandic and Milic, however, have both tried to capitalize on 
passions about Kosovo. 
MOORE