VZCZCXRO4201
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHPOD #0088/01 0731652
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 131652Z MAR 08
FM AMEMBASSY PODGORICA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0695
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHPOD/AMEMBASSY PODGORICA 0769

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PODGORICA 000088 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL MW
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:  MEET THE CANDIDATES 
 
REF: PODGORICA 013 AND PREVIOUS 
 
PODGORICA 00000088  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The deadline for registration for Montenegro's 
presidential election is March 17, but the identities of the 
four leading candidates have been clear for some time.  (The 
first round of the election will be April 6, with an if-needed 
second round on April 20).  The contenders are incumbent 
President Vujanovic of the ruling Democratic Party of 
Socialists, Nebojsa Medojevic of the centrist Movement for 
Change, Andrija Mandic of the Serbian People's Party, and Srdjan 
Milic of the Socialist People's Party.  A recent poll shows 
President Vujanovic potentially within reach of a first round 
victory, with Medojevic and Mandic vying for second place.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
 
 
¶2. (SBU) Four candidates have gathered the required 7,266 
signatures (1.5 percent of voters) to register for the April 6 
presidential elections.  (Note:  Two independents are still 
attempting to gather signatures.  One, Dragan Hajdukovic, a 
physicist living in Switzerland, received more than four percent 
of the vote in the 2003 presidential election, but should not be 
a factor in this race even if he manages to register.  The other 
independent, Dragic Bulatovic, is an unemployed worker.)  The 
four contenders are: 
 
 
 
President Filip Vujanovic 
 
------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶3. (SBU) The incumbent President, 54, represents the ruling 
Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS).  A graduate of the 
Belgrade Law Faculty, he served as Minister of Justice and then 
Interior from 1993 to 1998 and was Prime Minister from 1998 
until 2002, when he became Speaker of Parliament.  Vujanovic was 
elected President in May 2003 with 64 percent of the vote. 
 
 
 
¶4. (SBU) Vujanovic's incumbency did not prevent a noisy campaign 
to nominate DPS leader Milo Djukanovic for the presidency, as 
DPS supporters worried that the low key Vujanovic lacks the 
charisma and nationalist credentials to mobilize the party's 
base.  Vujanovic is no lightweight, however:  he has the lowest 
negative ratings of any of the four candidates and a relatively 
clean image.  His support for the Serbian Orthodox Church also 
makes him less objectionable for Montenegro's large Serb 
community.  Vujanovic has also made regular efforts to reach out 
to the ethnic Albanian community in Montenegro. Finally, 
Djukanovic's election as PM has reassured the DPS base, and the 
backing of the party's formidable political and patronage 
machine makes Vujanovic the overwhelming frontrunner. 
 
 
 
Nebojsa Medojevic, Movement for Change (PzP) 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) Medojevic, now 42, graduated with a degree in 
electrical engineering from the University of Montenegro in 1991 
and subsequently worked as a consultant for the GoM's Agency for 
Restructuring and Foreign Investments.  He co-founded the "Group 
for Change" NGO in 2002 to lobby for economic and democratic 
reforms.  In 2006, Medojevic turned the NGO into a political 
party, the Movement for Change (PzP).  Competing for the first 
time in the September 2006 parliamentary election, the PzP 
received 13 percent of the vote, making the new party the second 
largest in Parliament (after the PM's DPS). 
 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) The ambitious and charismatic Medojevic appeals to 
moderates weary of the DPS stranglehold on political power.  His 
anti-DPS electoral campaign focuses on economic issues and 
corruption.  His chief challenge is that he lacks a set 
electorate and party structure (he was the last of the four 
contenders to submit signatures despite being the first to 
declare).  He also tends to pander and is hard to pin down on 
controversial issues, including Kosovo and NATO.  Ironically, 
his one principled stand -- support for the new Constitution -- 
enabled opposition rivals to cast him as a traitor, and could 
hurt him with pro-Serb voters, particularly if he makes it to 
the second round. 
 
 
 
PODGORICA 00000088  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
 
Andrija Mandic, Serbian People's Party (SNS) 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶7. (SBU) Mandic, 43, heads both the SNS, Montenegro's largest 
pro-Serb party, and the Serbian List political alliance.  He has 
a degree in metallurgy from the University of Podgorica.  After 
graduation, he founded a company which designed, produced, and 
installed aluminum molding.  Mandic joined the SNS in 1997 and 
served as Deputy Minister of Economy of the FRY from 2000 to 
¶2001. 
 
 
 
¶8. (SBU) Mandic has a stable and committed electorate of 
anti-independence Serbs.  This is also a weakness, since his 
strident rhetoric and identification with Serb issues sharply 
limits his appeal beyond his base.  His critics accuse him of 
grandstanding and serving Belgrade's interests, and polls give 
him the highest negative ratings of the four candidates. (Note: 
He comes across as pragmatic and opportunistic in meetings, 
where he takes pains to convey that he values his relationship 
with the USG despite frequent critical public positions.) 
Mandic is hoping Kosovo will energize his campaign; he organized 
an anti-Kosovo independence rally which brought as many as 
10,000 peaceful protestors to Podgorica.  (Note:  Mandic assured 
us he would not target our Embassy, and kept his word.) 
 
 
 
Srdjan Milic, Socialist People's Party (SNP) 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶9. (SBU) Milic, 42, graduated from the Faculty of Foreign Trade 
and Tourism in Dubrovnik and worked in the tourism industry for 
most of the 1980s and 1990s.  He joined the SNP in 1998 and was 
elected to the Montenegrin Parliament in 2002.  He was elected 
head of his party in November 2006 in a general shake-up 
intended to stem the party's slide in the polls (Note:  The SNP 
declined in support from 20.4 percent in 2002 to 8.2 percent in 
2006). 
 
 
 
¶10. (SBU) Milic has tried to reinvent the heavily Serb, 
anti-independence SNP into a multi-ethnic, civic party, but has 
faced resistance from the SNP's conservative wing and has found 
his electorate squeezed by the PzP and SNS.  He was a reluctant 
presidential candidate, delaying committing in the hopes that an 
independent, joint opposition candidate would emerge.  The 
understated Milic is often overshadowed by the more voluble 
Mandic and Medojevic, but benefits from a still-strong party 
structure (he was the first candidate to gather the required 
signatures despite being the last to declare).  He hopes to 
present himself as a moderate alternative to Mandic and a 
stronger oppositionist than Medojevic.  Interestingly, Milic 
claims to be an advocate of NATO membership for Montenegro. 
(Note:  The latest polls suggest the SNP has gained back some of 
the votes it lost to PzP in the last election, likely due to 
Medojevic's support for the new Constitution). 
 
 
 
What The Polls Say 
 
------------------ 
 
 
 
¶11. (U) The most recent poll from the respected CEDEM think tank 
surveyed 1,000 Montenegrins from February 15 - 20.  According to 
the poll (which had a margin of error of 1.5 percent), 49.5 
percent of likely voters would cast their ballots for Vujanovic, 
21.2 percent for Medojevic, 14.8 percent for Mandic, and 9.9 
percent for Milic.  4.6 percent of respondents would vote for 
none of the above, and the expected turnout for the election's 
first round was 71.1 percent. 
 
 
 
¶12. (U) Should the election go to a second round (if no 
candidate won more than 50 percent of the vote in the first 
round), voter turnout would fall to 62.1 percent.  Vujanovic 
would beat Medojevic by a margin of 63.2 percent to 36.8 
percent, and would beat Mandic 68.5 percent to 31.5 percent. 
The poll did not offer a Vujanovic - Milic match-up.  Should 
 
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Medojevic face off against Mandic, however, the former would 
beat the latter 67.3 percent to 32.7 percent. 
 
 
 
Comment 
 
------- 
 
 
 
¶13. (SBU) The main drama at this point is whether Vujanovic can 
win a first round victory, and if not, whether it will be 
Medojevic or Mandic (since at this point Milic is running a 
clear fourth) to lead the opposition in the second round. 
Septel will discuss this election's political implications for 
Montenegro. 
MOORE