VZCZCXRO9266
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHPOD #0105/01 0911626
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 311626Z MAR 08
FM AMEMBASSY PODGORICA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0719
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHPOD/AMEMBASSY PODGORICA 0797

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PODGORICA 000105 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL MW
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:  THE CONDUCT OF THE 
CAMPAIGN TO DATE 
 
REF: PODGORICA 93 AND PREVIOUS 
 
PODGORICA 00000105  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  Montenegro will hold presidential elections 
April 6.  Despite initial lack of clarity on electoral 
legislation, observers believe the voter registry is solid and 
that political party oversight, procedural safeguards, and 
domestic and international observers will adequately ensure the 
integrity of the vote.  The opposition has accused the ruling 
party of abusing state resources and purchasing IDs to prevent 
citizens from voting and has complained of media bias and 
inadequate campaign financing.  OSCE/ODIHR mission has reported 
a "slight" bias in state media toward the incumbent, but has 
been unable to substantiate the allegations of ID buying. 
Overall, the candidates have focused on substantive issues and 
the campaign has witnessed fewer accusations of violations than 
in recent elections.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
 
¶2. (U) Montenegro will hold presidential elections April 6, with 
a runoff on April 20 if no candidate gets more than 50 percent 
in the first round.  According to a March 14-20 poll conducted 
by the CEDEM think tank, incumbent President Vujanovic of the 
Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) is supported by 52.8 
percent of voters (an increase of more than four percent from 
CEDEM's February poll).  Andrija Mandic of the Serbian People's 
Party (SNS) has moved into second place, with 19.1 percent (up 
from 14.8 percent in February), just ahead of Nebojsa Medojevic 
of the Movement for Change (PzP), who has 18.3 percent support 
(21.2 percent in February).  Srdjan Milic of the Socialist 
People's Party (SNP) trails with 9.8 percent (9.9 percent in the 
February poll). 
 
 
 
Lack of Legislation Causes Initial Confusion... 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶3. (U) The campaign got off to an uncertain start in January 
when Parliament failed to pass legislation defining voter 
eligibility and campaign financing.  Parliament's failure until 
March 19 to elect a quorum to the Public Broadcasting Service 
Council also prevented that body from adopting regulations 
governing state media's coverage of the campaign. In the absence 
of these laws and regulations, the campaign has been conducted 
under existing legislation, some of which has been criticized as 
ambiguous (but which the ODIHR mission has assessed as 
sufficient according to international standards). 
 
 
 
...But Few Worries About Voter List, Election Day Vote 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Despite some unhappiness over the election's 
legislative framework, most observers have expressed few 
concerns about the quality of Montenegro's voter registry and 
the competence and objectivity of its electoral administration. 
ODIHR told us the registry, which consists of 489,894 
individuals, was solid.  (Note:  All individuals listed as of 
September 2006 -- the last parliamentary election -- may vote). 
In addition, according to ODIHR, election commissions were 
transparent and had met all deadlines.  Opposition candidates 
were expected to place representatives on the 21 municipal 
commissions and the boards of 1,141 polling stations; ODIHR 
believes political party controls and other procedural 
safeguards will ensure the basic integrity of the vote. 
 
 
 
¶5. (U) ODIHR will field 120 short-term and 14 long-term monitors 
(in country since early March).  Embassies are contributing 
another 14 observers to ODIHR; together with a handful of 
Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe representatives 
and other OSCE staff, about 175 foreign monitors will deploy 
throughout Montenegro.  They will be joined by approximately 500 
observers from the NGO the Center for Democratic Transition 
(CDT), which will conduct a Parallel Vote Tabulation from about 
200 polling stations (Note: CDT's election activities are funded 
by NED).  Another NGO, the Center for Monitoring (CEMI), may 
also field observers. 
 
 
 
Concerns About the Campaign 
 
--------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) While few expect fraud on election day, political 
parties have raised the following concerns: 
 
PODGORICA 00000105  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
 
 
 
-- Abuse of state resources:  The opposition has charged that 
President Vujanovic is using his office to further his campaign. 
 SNP MP Aleksandar Damjanovic told us Vujanovic had stepped up 
presidential activities since the start of the campaign, and SNS 
Deputy Leader Goran Danilovic complained that the President was 
using state transport (such as a helicoptor) to travel to 
campaign rallies. 
 
 
 
-- Bias in state media:  The opposition charges that RTCG has 
devoted more time to Vujanovic.  They also complain about the 
lack of TV debates (RTCG will hold its only debate on April 3, 
and Damjanovic told us a private TV station cancelled a planned 
debate between deputies of the candidates after the DPS backed 
out).  Medojevic told the Ambassador that some media were 
unfairly raising rates -- a TV station in Bijelo Polje increased 
its advertising fees 20-fold since the campaign started. 
 
 
 
-- Inadequate financing:  Parliament allocated 400,000 euros to 
be divided equally among candidates receiving at least five 
percent of the vote (the opposition lobbied in vain for the 2.7 
million euros available for parliamentary elections). 
Opposition representatives complain that the 100,000 euros each 
candidate will get is not enough.  Danilovic charged that 
Vujanovic had spent well in excess of 250,000 euros on TV ads, 
while his candidate (Mandic) had to take bank loans.  On March 
30, RTCG announced it would no longer run Medojevic's ads since 
the PzP already owed the station 200,000 euros. 
 
 
 
-- Illegal Purchase of IDs: PzP and SNS have alleged that 
individuals associated with the DPS are purchasing or "renting" 
voters' identity documents in order to prevent them from voting, 
and possibly in order to photo sub the documents.  Danilovic 
claimed that 10,000 IDs had been purchased, and offered to 
provide us with the names of some individuals involved. 
Medojevic told the Ambassador that Safet Kalic, a suspected 
mafia kingpin from Rozaje, had given the DPS five million Euros 
to support the Vujanovic campaign (including, presumably, to 
purchase IDs).  On March 26, the PzP submitted to the Chief 
State Prosecutor the names of three individuals who they claimed 
were buying IDs. 
 
 
 
ODIHR, NGOs Downplay ID Purchase 
 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) An ODIHR representative and CDT director Marko Canovic 
told us they were looking closely at the "difficult" question of 
whether Vujanovic was using state resources to further his 
campaign.  However, both said they had yet to see convincing 
evidence of ID buying.  For one thing, Canovic told us, voters 
can still cast their ballots after presenting a passport or 
driver's license.  The ODIHR representative said the SNS claimed 
to have a list of seven individuals with knowledge of ID buying, 
but declined to share their names.  (Note: SNS representatives 
have told us they lack confidence in ODIHR, which they claim 
ignored fraud during the May 2006 independence referendum.) 
 
 
 
"Slight" Media Bias for Incumbent 
 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) ODIHR media monitors reported March 24 that RTCG 
"slightly favors" Vujanovic, who received 33.8 percent of 
coverage of candidates, with Milic (23.8), Medojevic (22.2), and 
Mandic (20.1) trailing.  (Note:  these figures refer only to 
campaign coverage; they do not include coverage of Vujanovic's 
presidential activities.)  Private broadcaster IN TV, which 
competes with RTCG for ratings, was more biased, devoting 47.2 
percent of its coverage to Vujanovic, with Medojevic, Mandic, 
and Milic getting 22.4, 19.3, and 11.1 percent, respectively. 
ODIHR noted, however, that all candidates had received 
significant coverage overall and had freely purchased airtime, 
and several newspapers (such as Dan and Vijesti) were supporting 
opposition candidates. 
 
 
 
Campaign Rhetoric Relatively Positive 
 
PODGORICA 00000105  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) ODIHR, CDT, and veteran observers report that the 
campaign has been orderly and relatively civil.  In contrast to 
previous elections, which were dominated by the single question 
of independence, candidates are mostly running issue-based 
campaigns focusing on pensions, wages, education, health care, 
corruption, and (to some extent) minority rights.  A partial 
exception has been Vujanovic, who -- while vowing to continue 
the economic improvements of the past few years -- has made his 
party's support for Montenegrin statehood, and the other 
candidates' opposition to independence, a centerpiece of his 
campaign.  All candidates profess support for European 
integration -- several, especially Medojevic, argue that by 
cleaning up corruption they can integrate Montenegro into Europe 
faster than Vujanovic -- while Mandic (and to a lesser degree 
Milic) has been seeking to capitalize on widespread opposition 
to Kosovo's independence. 
 
 
 
Comment 
 
------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) Despite legislative deficiencies and some apparent 
violations, this campaign has contained a number of positive 
developments.  First of all, it has been vigorous, with all 
candidates reaching out to large public audiences virtually 
every day.  In addition, the voter registry seems to be no 
longer a major concern, there is widespread confidence in the 
country's electoral administration, and election day fraud is 
considered unlikely.  Furthermore, there have been fewer claims 
of pressure on public sector employees and voters in general (to 
support the DPS candidate) than in years past, and candidates 
are focusing more on issues than complaints about violations. 
Allegations of ID buying are very serious, but have so far been 
unsubstantiated.  On the negative side of the ledger, media 
coverage appears to have been somewhat skewed and the lack of 
public debates between candidates is a concern.  CDT has 
reported on the defacing of a number of billboards, most 
belonging to Mandic.  The DPS-controlled Parliament's decision 
to allocate only 400,000 euros to candidates clearly benefits 
Vujanovic. 
MOORE