VZCZCXYZ2673
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHLS #0278/01 0641346
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 041346Z MAR 08
FM AMEMBASSY LUSAKA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5550
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC

UNCLAS LUSAKA 000278 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
TREASURY FOR OASIA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EFIN EMIN PGOV EINV ENRG ZA
SUBJECT: IMF Mission Supportive of New Mining Tax Regime, 
Concerned with Power Situation 
 
Refs:  A) Lusaka 115; B) Lusaka 108 and previous 
 
1 (SBU) Summary:  A visiting IMF team commended Zambia's economic 
management and the government's commitment to improving public 
expenditure management and establishing a single Treasury account. 
The team discussed the basis for changing the mining tax regime, and 
raised concerns about the electric power situation.  Post worries 
that IMF advice on reform of the government utility and project 
viability may not be heeded.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Background: IMF staff mission leader Francesco Caramazza 
and his colleagues briefed donor representatives at the beginning 
and end of a February 13-27, 2008 visit to Zambia.  Caramazza 
reported that the mission discussed a new "low-access" Poverty 
Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) with Zambian officials, and 
that staff would present the terms of an arrangement to the IMF 
Board for approval in May 2008. 
 
Upbeat View on Economic Outlook 
 
¶3. (SBU) The IMF team offered an upbeat take on Zambia's 
macroeconomic outlook.  The team expects 2008 real economic growth 
to rise slightly, to 6.3 percent, though falling copper prices and 
further electricity shortages could exert downward pressures on 
growth.  The target for the annual rate of inflation is seven 
percent for 2008, and five percent for 2009, but external factors 
(such as weather, which affects food production) could have a 
negative impact on inflation.  Caramazza told donors that the IMF 
was not worried about overly restrictive monetary policy curbing 
economic growth.  He also said tQt the IMF does not expect a 
strong, sudden appreciation of the kwacha, as occurred in late 
¶2005. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Caramazza commented that the GRZ's 2008 budget proposal 
contained higher spending on education, health, and infrastructure, 
as well as funds allotted to paying off domestic arrears.  The IMF 
also anticipates higher levels of non-mining revenues due to 
increases in government fees (Ref A).  The IMF and donor 
representatives agreed that effective use of funds by line 
ministries remains a concern.  In the new PRGF arrangement, the IMF 
expects to address structural issues, including public expenditure 
management, single Treasury account, budget execution, tax 
administration, and debt management. 
 
¶5. (SBU) The DCM commented on the GRZ's reluctance to take on new 
debt obligations since HIPC completion in 2005, and asked the IMF 
team its position on incurring new debt.  Caramazza explained that 
the Fund continues to encourage the GRZ to take new loans for 
investment, including infrastructure projects, on a concessional 
basis, and had not entirely discouraged new debt. 
 
Questions on New Fiscal Regime for Mines 
 
¶6. (SBU) The staff mission leader welcomed the increased revenues 
expected from the new mining sector fiscal regime, and the GRZ plan 
to place revenues into a special account to be used for capital 
expenditures.  Donors raised questions about the mining tax regime 
(Ref A), in particular the debate surrounding the calculation of the 
effective tax rate.  The Zambian government claimed that the 
effective tax rate was 47 percent, but mining sector representatives 
claimed it was as high as 79 percent.  The IMF team observed that 
calculations can vary widely, depending on the timeframes used, the 
competitiveness of the specific company, and on different 
assumptions about copper prices.  For example, the IMF expects 
declining world prices for copper, while the GRZ's projections keep 
prices at their current levels.  Caramazza told donors that the GRZ 
promised to implement the new taxes in a way that takes into account 
the industry's concerns.  He also noted that when copper prices 
fall, the issue might "disappear" entirely. 
 
¶7. (SBU) P/E Chief questioned Caramazza on the sidelines of the 
meeting about the Fund's view of the GRZ's possible breach of 
contractual obligations.  He explained that the GRZ and some 
donor-funded technical advisors conducted a benchmarking exercise to 
compare Zambia's tax regime to those of other copper-rich countries, 
and built financial models for all the mines operating in Zambia to 
test different taxation options.  Based on the benchmarking and 
modeling, he thought the revisiting the "development agreements" 
with mining investors was justified.  A written statement issued by 
the staff mission acknowledged concerns about reneging on 
contractual commitments by noting "In implementing the new regime, 
particular care needs to be taken to maintain Zambia's 
attractiveness as a destination for mining investment."  Caramazza 
also noted that mining company-GRZ tensions reported in the local 
media were exaggerated and told donors that the GRZ would meet with 
mining companies during the week of March 3, to discuss the tax 
regime in more detail. 
 
 
Energy Problems Critical 
 
¶8. (SBU) Caramazza expressed concern over the electricity supply 
crisis (Ref B), and in a written public statement the staff mission 
stated, "Urgent action is needed to ensure that additional power 
generating capacity can come on line as soon as possible."  He 
observed that the electricity rate hikes recently approved for 
national power utility ZESCO were insufficient to cover costs, so 
higher rates that better reflect costs are still needed.  He also 
acknowledged that reform of the inefficient state monopoly is also 
critical.  The team also observed that the GRZ would have to 
consider external borrowing to finance new generating capacity, and 
cautioned that the projects be viable, in the interest of debt 
management and sustainability. 
 
¶9. (SBU) After one donor representative voiced dismay during the 
February 13 in-brief over the GRZ's lack of a sense of urgency about 
the electric power situation, the IMF team reported on February 27 
that the GRZ has "recognized the problem."  The team shared its view 
that the GRZ has greater political will to address the problem, in 
comparison with the past.  Caramazza and his colleagues encouraged 
donors to consider seriously how they could support improvements in 
the power sector. 
 
¶10. (SBU) The staff mission leader also advised that the GRZ was 
developing an energy sector policy paper for Cabinet approval.  The 
paper targets three areas:  1) adjusting tariffs upwards to reflect 
costs better; 2) improving operational efficiency of ZESCO; and 3) 
improving environment for private sector investment. 
 
¶11. (SBU) Comment.  The IMF team's upbeat but qualified assessment 
of Zambia's economic outlook tracks with ours and other donors' 
views.  However, we remain concerned that despite the IMF'S 
prescription to improve ZESCO's operational efficiency and to focus 
on economically viable power projects, the GRZ may take advantage of 
the current crisis to push through insufficiently-vetted projects, 
and ignore the need for ZESCO to reform its management, personnel 
and technical infrastructure. 
MARTINEZ