VZCZCXRO5945
OO RUEHGI RUEHMA RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #0382/01 0751113
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 151113Z MAR 08
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0203
RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 000382 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, AF S/E WILLIAMSON, AND AF/SPG 
NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON 
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KEDEM PREF SU
SUBJECT: THE CENSUS SHOULD NOT GO FORWARD IN DARFUR, OPPOSITION 
PARTY REPS CLAIM 
 
REF: KHARTOUM 372 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Both the Umma Party and SPLM believe that now is 
not the time to conduct a census in Darfur.  Their concerns echo 
those of civil society in North Darfur - that peace, stability and 
the return of IDPs to their homes must take place before an accurate 
and thorough census can go forward in the region.  Umma Party does 
not have a strategy to gain favor among the the Darfuri electorate 
in the 2009 elections and the SPLM, aside from having grave 
misunderstandings about how the census affects the elections, 
believes it has a broad base of support among the Dafuri people. END 
SUMMARY. 
 
----------------------------------- 
DARFUR TOO UNSTABLE FOR THE CENSUS 
----------------------------------- 
¶2. (SBU) On 10 March, poloff met with Rabeei Baharadein Ali Dinar, 
Deputy Chairman of Umma Party in North Darfur, and Khaleel Mohammed 
Bakheet Tukras, Information Secretary and Spokesman for Umma Party 
in North Darfur, in El Fasher to speak about the party's stance on 
next month's census and electoral strategy for Darfur. Dinar started 
out by saying that the Umma Party (nationally) is not opposed to the 
census or the elections and that they hoped both would be free and 
fair. As Umma Party members and also as Darfuris, though, they 
registered concerns about the conduct of both the census and the 
elections in Darfur.  They stated that the census and elections 
should be postponed until there is peace on the ground in Darfur. 
[Note: Rabeei Bahradein Ali Dinar is the grandson of the late Darfur 
sultan Ali Dinar.  End note.] 
 
¶3. (SBU) In a separate meeting on 10 March, poloffs met with the 
SPLM lead representative in North Darfur Al Shiekh Doda and his 
party colleague, Fakhri.  The SPLM reps claimed that the census will 
never take place in a "proper way" in Darfur due to security 
concerns that enumerators will face.  They agreed that the census is 
important in principle, but said that it is not practical to conduct 
the census in Darfur as scheduled for next month. 
 
--------------------------------------- 
CENSUS WILL NOT BE ACCURATE IN DARFUR 
--------------------------------------- 
¶4. (SBU) Both Umma Party members stated that their number one 
concern about the census in Darfur is the unstable security 
situation. "The census requires a peaceful and secure environment," 
said Dinar. "Enumeration will require freedom of movement." In 
Darfur, the SAF, the rebels, and even civilians are armed and there 
will be many places that government enumerators will not have access 
to, he explained. In a separate meeting, SPLM Darfur reps Al Shiekh 
Doda and Fakhri came to the same conclusion.  "It is too insecure" 
and impractical to hold a census in Darfur now.  Al Shiekh Doda said 
that it would be more rational for the GoS to use 1993 census data 
for Darfur and adjust it to the population growth rate. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Umma members went on to say that a census in Darfur will 
not reflect the region's true population due to the number of IDPs 
and refugees. "An accurate census in Darfur is not possible because 
people are on the move," said Dinar. Due to displacements, refugees, 
and areas that cannot safely be accessed by GoS enumerators, the 
population of Darfur is unusually low. Dinar claimed Darfur accounts 
for one third of the population of Sudan, and said it will be a 
problem if the census reveals less than this. (Note: It is highly 
unlikely that Darfur constitutes a third of Sudan's 40 million 
inhabitants, though it is notable that this figure is being cited by 
the political class in Darfur - perhaps based on a popular 
understanding passed down over generations.  Due to large growth in 
other areas of Sudan but also due to the grinding conflict and 
refugee flows in Darfur, the population of Darfur may now be fifteen 
or twenty percent of the overall population. End note.)  The party 
members described the critical implications the census will have on 
power and wealth-sharing. They instructed that there should be a 
solution to the Darfur problem first before the census and elections 
are conducted. 
 
¶6. (SBU) SPLM reps claimed that IDPs will not allow government 
enumerators to conduct a census in the camps.  They said that there 
is an overall lack of advocacy about the census in Darfur.  Al 
Shiekh Doda stated that the election depends on the census and that 
if people do not participate in the census, they cannot vote. 
Poloffs corrected him and said that the census is not tied to voter 
registration or the elections and that if people do not participate 
in the census, it should not affect their ability to vote. 
 
-------------------------------- 
GoS MANIPULATION OF THE CENSUS 
-------------------------------- 
¶7. (SBU) Both Umma Party members alerted poloff to a "very dangerous 
 
KHARTOUM 00000382  002 OF 003 
 
 
issue" not being discussed regarding the census and elections in 
Darfur - the supposed influx of Chadian Arabs that easily obtain 
Sudanese nationality.  These groups can "change the dynamic of 
Darfur", said Dinar, especially since many true Darfuris are 
refugees or haQ-f 
wjQx~er of which opposition 
parties have in Darfur due to GoS harassment and the security 
situation.  Dinar stated that the NCP will never be able to solve 
the problem of Darfur.  "The only people who can solve the Darfur 
problem are Darfuris," he said. 
 
¶9. (SBU) SPLM rep Al Shiekh Doda said that the NCP mentality in 
Darfur is different from its mentality in Khartoum.  In Darfur, the 
NCP believes that every opposition party "should be dealt with in a 
rough way," he said.  If opposition parties want to hold a political 
forum, the parties must go through a bureaucratic process that takes 
more than one month in order to obtain permission.  If parties do 
not obtain local GoS clearance for their activities, they will be 
arrested, said Al Sheikh Doda.  He also said that the NCP will 
financially polarize many voters in North Darfur, due to the NCP's 
ample financial resources and organization. Al Shiekh Doda lamented 
that the SPLM has major financial problems in North Darfur, saying 
that his office receives very little financial support from SPLM 
Khartoum.  He added that the SPLM has offices in 10 out of 14 
localities in North Darfur. 
 
------------------------------------------ 
ELECTORAL STRATEGIES NOT WELL THOUGHT-OUT 
------------------------------------------ 
¶10. (SBU) Umma party representatives did not give a clear answer as 
to the party's strategy for the 2009 elections in Darfur.  Dinar 
claimed, "We cannot do anything given the situation on the ground 
(in Darfur)." 
 
¶11. (SBU) SPLM lead office representative for North Darfur Al Sheikh 
Doda doted that the SPLM has a "good strategy" to gain support in 
Darfur prior to the 2009 elections.  He said that the SPLM does not 
have any problems with access to the IDP camps, which shows how much 
the party is liked among Darfuris. Additionally, he said that the 
SPLM is constantly in contact with IDP leaders and students in North 
Darfur.  He said the SPLM will campaign in Darfur, as it is doing 
across the country, under its strategy of a "New Darfur", which 
includes elements of peace, equality and development.  Al Sheikh 
Doda boasted that the SPLM has been engaged in the Darfur problem by 
facilitating and encouraging unity among non-signatory rebel groups 
in Juba.  He claimed that the majority of people in Darfur will vote 
for the SPLM in the upcoming elections and that the NCP is nervous 
it will lose in Darfur.  The SPLM reps underscored the importance of 
securing peace, stability and the return of IDPs to their homes in 
Darfur before census and elections take place.  Elusive about the 
prospect of delaying elections past 2009 (for the sake of stability 
in Darfur), Al Sheikh Doda said that the SPLM is "very keen to see 
elections done on time and in a proper way." 
 
¶12. COMMENT: It is a struggle to find anyone in Darfur who thinks 
that conducting the census next month is a good idea.  Darfuris are 
far more concerned with achieving peace and stability than 
participating in a "democratic" census and elections over the next 
year.  Furthermore, Dafuris feel that, given their current situation 
of massive displacement, widespread violence, and distrust of the 
GoS and its activities, a census, nor elections, will benefit them. 
 
 
¶13.  COMMENT CONTINUED: The Darfur electorate has become 
de-politicized and turned its attention and loyalty to rebel 
movements.  Although Darfur was once a political stronghold for 
Umma, Umma seems to have no strategy for winning its supporters 
back.  With the field more or less wide open for the SPLM, it 
 
KHARTOUM 00000382  003 OF 003 
 
 
unconvincingly claims to have strong support on the ground.  However 
the reality is that the SPLM is so focused on the South and its 
upcoming bid for secession, that Darfur becomes a third-rate 
priority.  This is a serious mistake (and represents the SPLM's lack 
of capacity to adequately make and implement its plans) because the 
SPLM has much to gain from allying itself with other marginalized 
groups in Darfur. 
 
FERNANDEZ