VZCZCXRO6032
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK
DE RUEHDIR #0013/01 0751856
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P R 151856Z MAR 08
FM IRAN RPO DUBAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0241
INFO RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUEHDIR/IRAN RPO DUBAI 0234

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 IRAN RPO DUBAI 000013 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON FOR GAYLE, BERLIN FOR PAETZOLD 
BAKU FOR HAUGEN, ISTANBUL FOR ODLUM 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: IR PGOV PREL PHUM
SUBJECT: ASSESSMENT OF FIRST DAY RESULTS OF IRANIAN MAJLES ELECTIONS 
 
RPO DUBAI 00000013  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
1.(SBU) Summary:  Initial parliamentary election results in Iran 
predictably show a predominance of conservative candidates 
winning, but the results from Tehran - historically an important 
political barometer - will not be released for a few days. 
Iran's interior ministry announced that turnout in the March 14 
Majles elections was close to 65%, higher than four years ago. 
Iranian state-run Press TV reported that 49% of the count has 
been completed and that conservatives have so far won 77% (108 
seats) of the 141 seats that have been counted - without 
differentiating between pro-Ahmadinejad conservatives, and the 
president's conservative critics.  A spokesman of the United 
Front of Principle-ists, which has been associated in the press 
with Ahmadinejad, but also includes some of his conservative 
critics, told state-run news outlet IRNA that 70% of the newly 
elected legislators are on the UFP list.  Press TV reported that 
so far reformists have won 33 seats (23%), and an unknown number 
of independents have also won seats.  AP is reporting that 115 
of the 290 seats have been decided so far.  Of those 115, AP 
reports that pro-Ahmadinejad conservatives have won 42 seats 
(36%), his conservative critics have 28 seats (24%), reformists 
have 16 seats (14%), and independents have 29 seats (25%). 
 
2.(SBU) Summary continued: Analysis in Iranian press noted that 
because the votes in the provinces center more around local 
issues than national politics, only the results of the big 
cities, especially the 30 seats in the capital Tehran, will 
clarify political trends in parliament.  In the only reported 
result so far of the concurrently-held by-elections for the 
Assembly of Experts, Hashem Hashemzadeh-Harisi was re-elected in 
the East Azerbaijan constituency.  Reformist groups have already 
suggested there were some "electoral irregularities" and a 
reformist website charged that Basij forces at polling stations 
were intimidating voters, but no reports have been seen so far 
of any violence.  Analysts see the Supreme Leader and the 
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as the big winners in 
these elections.  While there are reportedly several political 
factions within the IRGC, the group as a whole is seen as Iran's 
most dedicated supporters of the revolution and the Supreme 
Leader.  End summary. 
 
Government reports high turnout 
--------------------------------------- 
 
3.(U) "Around 65 percent of the electorate took part in the 
elections, which is more than the last election," said 
Habibollah Hassan Khanlou, the secretary of the interior 
ministry's election office.  The 2004 Majles elections saw a 
turnout of 51%.  Nearly 44 million Iranians were eligible to 
vote in these elections.  (Note: Iran's voting age was raised 
last year from 15 to 18. Endnote.)  Voter participation is 
important to the government of Iran because they declare high 
turnout to be an indication of the legitimacy of the Islamic 
Republican system.  Interior Minister Purmohammadi even directly 
connected a high voter turnout with public support for the 
government's nuclear policy, saying that the "massive turnout" 
at the polls was Iran's response to the newest UNSC resolution 
against Iran. 
 
4.(SBU) Numerous senior government officials made statements in 
the days before the election encouraging the public to vote to 
thwart the plans of Iran's "enemies."  Although the reform 
candidates were heavily vetted out of the competition, reform 
leaders such as former president Khatami and former Majles 
speaker Karrubi nonetheless encouraged reformers and their 
supporters to turn out at the polls.  A limited number of 
foreign press outlets were allowed to cover the Majles elections 
from inside the country, although it was not clear whether their 
access was limited to Tehran.  International press outlets 
reported apparently low voter turnout early on election day, and 
some reported that turnout increased later in the day.  Polls in 
Iran were kept open an additional five hours, closing at 11 pm 
local time.  At the out-of-country polling station in the 
Iranian consulate in Dubai, there were no crowds visible during 
the day, although the consulate may not have been the only 
polling station in Dubai. 
 
Partial results in, but not for Tehran 
------------------------------------------- 
 
5.(U) Partial results from some of Iran's 30 provinces have 
already been received, although no results for the crucial 
Tehran constituency have been reported yet.  Interior Minister 
Purmohammadi initially said that the final nationwide results 
would be reported by March 20 at the latest but was subsequently 
quoted in different sources saying that results would be 
 
RPO DUBAI 00000013  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
released within 3-4 days or conversely, within 24 hours. 
Authorities announced March 15 that runoff elections would be 
necessary in 17 constituencies, without noting when the runoffs 
would take place. 
 
¶6. (U) Iranian state-run press reported March 15 that 49% of the 
count has been completed and that conservatives have so far won 
77% of the 141 (out of a total 290) seats that have been 
counted.  These reports do not differentiate between 
pro-Ahmadinejad conservatives, and the president's conservative 
critics, the so-called United Front of Principle-ists (UFP) and 
Broad and Popular Coalition of Principle-ists (BPCP) 
respectively .  According to state-run English-language news 
outlet Press TV, 141 seats have already been decided, and 
conservatives gained 108 of those seats (77%), without 
differentiating between the different principle-ist factions. 
Reformists won 33 seats so far (23%), and an unknown number of 
independents won seats, according to Press TV. 
 
¶7. (SBU) The most recent AP story reported that 115 seats had 
been decided so far, and of those 115,  pro-Ahmadinejad 
conservatives won 42 seats (36%), his conservative critics have 
28 seats (24%), reformists have 16 seats (14%), and independents 
have 29 seats (25%).  (Comment:  If this trend continues of such 
a sizeable independent representation, the political leanings of 
this independent group could have an important impact on the 
Majles.  End comment)  According to state-run news outlet Al 
Alam, some politicians said their informal exit polls suggested 
the UFP, the most pro-government group of candidates, was doing 
well in Tehran, where conservatives hold 26 of the capital's 
seats in the outgoing assembly. UFP secretary Shahabeddin Sadr 
told state-run news outlet IRNA March 15, "The names announced 
by the Interior Ministry show that 70 percent of the newly 
elected legislators are on our list of candidates."  A BPCP 
leader, Ali Larijani, reportedly won more that 75% of the vote 
for the seat he was contesting in Qom, according to Fars News. 
Fars News commented that considering his landslide, it remains 
to be seen whether Larijani would replace as new parliament 
speaker Gholam Ali Haddad Adel, head of the conservative faction 
who ran for Tehran where results have yet to be announced. 
According to Iranian press, another conservative critic of 
Ahmadinejad, Majles National Security and Foreign Policy 
commission head Alaeddin Boroujerdi, was re-elected.  Analysis 
in Iranian press noted that because the votes in the provinces 
center more around local issues than national politics, only the 
results of the big cities, especially the 30 seats in the 
capital Tehran, will clarify political trends in parliament. 
 
8.(U) In comments on the eve of the elections, Supreme Leader 
Khamenei was seen as encouraging people to vote for 
conservatives (also called principle-ists), although it was not 
clear from his comments whether he was referring to 
pro-Ahmadinejad candidates or conservatives writ-large. 
Khamenei enjoined the Iranian public to vote for "suitable 
people, who support people's rights and who are committed and 
devoted to Islamic foundations and values." 
 
Reformists make some allegations of "electoral irregularities" 
--------------------------------------------- ----------------- 
¶9. (U) Police and Basij forces were reportedly present at 
polling stations, with young government supporters reportedly 
urging the public to vote for conservatives, according to AP. 
According to AFP, the leader of one of the two main reformist 
camps, National Trust Party head Mehdi Karrubi told reporters at 
the Interior Ministry, "There are concerns regarding some 
irregularities by willful people to do something with the ballot 
boxes."  Reformist former interior minister Abdolvahed 
Musavi-Lari reportedly sent a letter to Guardian Council head 
Ayatollah Jannati complaining of electoral irregularities and 
alleged fraud, according to western news outlet ADNKronos.   A 
reformist electoral site, Baharestan, reportedly alleged that 
Basij forces were intimidating voters in areas south of Tehran. 
According to Resalat newspaper, Guardian Council head Ayatollah 
Jannati said there would be no fraud in vote-counting but there 
have been no specific reports of government response to the 
claims of interference in polling.  Reformers reportedly 
denounced a decision by the Interior Ministry to announce the 
election results only after the vote tally was final.  Results 
had always been announced as they were tallied in the past while 
counting continued.  "We are hearing various reports of 
irregularities in favor of the government," said Abdullah 
Nasseri, a spokesman for reformers, adding that the decision to 
announce the results after the final count created further 
concerns.  However, according to Press TV, Hossein Mar'ashi, the 
head of a reformist coalition electoral headquarters told Fars, 
 
RPO DUBAI 00000013  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
"We are sure that the election was free and fair.  We also 
reject US and British news agencies' claim that the reformists 
have plan to withdraw.  It's a mere lie." 
 
¶10. (U) ADNKronos reported that two Majles candidates were 
disqualified minutes before polls opened on Friday morning. 
Azeri candidate Jafar Fathalizadeh--a cleric--was reportedly 
accused of spreading "ethnic hatred" and "inciting people to 
clash with police during the campaign" and charged with 
"endangering national security" by the special court for the 
clergy.  In addition, reformist Mohammad Reza Purebrahimi was 
reportedly prevented from running for a Majles seat in Kerman, 
western Iran.  No reason was given, although some Kerman 
residents reportedly speculated that he was disqualified because 
he was likely to win against his conservative opponent. 
 
Assembly of Experts 
------------------------- 
11.(SBU) In the only reported result so far of the 
concurrently-held by-elections for the Assembly of Experts, the 
body that supervises and selects the Supreme Leader, Hashem 
Hashemzadeh-Harisi was re-elected in the East Azerbaijan 
constituency. 
 
Who is the big winner? 
--------------------------- 
12.(SBU)Comment:  Many analysts and observers assert that the 
big winner in these Majles elections is Supreme Leader Khamenei. 
 The fissures that clearly emerged within conservative ranks do 
not hurt the Supreme Leader; in contrast, they lessen the risk 
of any one group or person amassing enough power and influence 
to rival him.  Ultimately, whichever conservative group claims 
dominance in these elections will only be able to exercise power 
with the approval of the Supreme Leader.  Criticism of the 
president's policies will likely increase from the 8th Majles, 
given that even the UPF lists contains critics of Ahmadinejad, 
such as Deputy Speaker Bahonar. 
 
13.(SBU) Comment continued:  The other clear winner is the IRGC, 
which has continuously expanded its presence in Iranian politics 
over the past four years.  While we don't have exact numbers, a 
significant number of Majles candidates are reportedly former 
IRGC members or have some affiliation with the IRGC. 
 
14.(SBU) Comment continued:  Tehran mayor Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf 
may emerge a winner, though not a parliamentary candidate, 
depending on predominance of BPCF candidates.  A leader of that 
faction,  a former IRGC officer, and current Tehran mayor, 
Qalibaf is increasingly seen as the conservative figure most 
likely to present a significant challenge to President 
Ahmadinejad in next year's presidential elections.  If the BPCF 
does well and makes a name for itself in the next Majles 
challenging the president, Qalibaf would be well placed to 
challenge Ahmadinejad for the presidency in 2009.   It is 
noteworthy that an Ahmadinejad deputy just reportedly 
established a news agency to critique the performance of the 
Tehran municipality, a clear indication that Ahmadinejad sees a 
threat from Qalibaf has also recently been attempting to raise 
his international profile.  The mayor paid an official visit to 
Baghdad the week prior to President Ahmadinejad, in which he 
pledged the resources of the Tehran municipality toward 
rebuilding Baghdad.  He also attended the World Economic Forum 
in Davos, meeting with the likes of UK Foreign Secretary 
Miliband.  On the eve of the parliamentary elections, Qalibaf 
gave an interview to major British newspaper The Times in which 
he attempted to portray himself as more open to engagement with 
the West.  Without referring to Ahmadinejad by name, he said 
that it was wrong to think that there was a "dominant" desire 
for confrontation and conflict in Iran, adding: "I would like 
the West to change its attitude to Iran and trust Iran and rest 
assured that there's an attitude in Iran to advance issues 
through dialogue." 
 
15.(SBU) Comment continued:  Reformists are looking to hang on 
to, and ideally expand, their current 40 seats in the Majles. 
However, after extensive vetting of reformist candidates, 
reformers ran in only about half of the races nationwide. 
Despite the high-profile politicking by Rafsanjani, Khatami, and 
Karrubi on behalf of the reform movement in Iran, reformist 
politicians seem unlikely to regain their control over the 
government any time in the near future. 
BURNS