VZCZCXRO8146
RR RUEHGH RUEHVC
DE RUEHCN #0043/01 0670933
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 070933Z MAR 08
FM AMCONSUL CHENGDU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2754
INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 0174
RUEHKT/AMEMBASSY KATHMANDU 0155
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL KOLKATA 0072
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEHCN/AMCONSUL CHENGDU 3343

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 CHENGDU 000043 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/CM AND DRL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  3/7/2033 
TAGS: PGOV ECON SOCI CH
SUBJECT: TIBET:  TOURISM, THE TRAIN, AND MIGRANT LABOR 
 
REF: REFS: (A) 07 CHENGDU 298    (B) 07 CHENGDU 297   (C) 07 CHENGDU 083 
 
CHENGDU 00000043  001.2 OF 004 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: James Boughner, Consul General, U.S. Consulate 
General, Chengdu, China. 
REASON: 1.4 (d) 
¶1.  (C) Summary:  Local officials in charge of tourism, 
railroad, and labor issues in the Tibetan Autonomous Region 
(TAR) claim to be "unsure" how many people from inland China may 
be resettling in traditional Tibetan areas.  In 2007, over four 
million tourists (mostly from inland China) visited the TAR, a 
region that officially has a population of less than three 
million people.  Tourism facilities are being expanded rapidly 
both within and outside Lhasa to meet an expected continued rise 
in demand as massive investments in the TAR's transportation 
infrastructure -- new airports, roads, railroad extension -- 
make formerly remote areas more accessible.  At least six 
million people are expected to visit the TAR in 2010. 
Approximately 43 percent of visitors to the TAR travel via the 
new train and there does not appear to be any system in place 
(at least officially) to account for or differentiate between 
tourist and migrant laborer passengers.  A summer 2007 shortage 
in train seats was addressed by adding more trains that were 
easily accommodated by Lhasa's massive three-platform, 
seven-track station.  Commenting on the city's changing ethnic 
composition, a longtime Nepali Consulate official said Lhasa's 
current population is probably 800,000 people (far greater than 
other estimates we have heard that range between 300,000 to 
500,000) and 82 percent of all businesses in Lhasa are owned by 
Han.  As most (although not all) newcomers are ethnic Han, Lhasa 
may already have become a majority Han city.  In order to 
promote trade, Nepal has requested that China extend the 
railroad to its border.  End Summary. 
 
 
 
Taking the Train 
 
--------------- 
 
 
 
¶2. (C) During a joint visit by the Consulate and Embassy from 
February 25-29 to the Tibetan Plateau (see septels), CG, Embassy 
Poloff, Congenoff, and Tibetan LES road the new train from 
Xining in Qinghai Province to Lhasa, a trip that took 
approximately 24 hours.  Although the TAR Foreign Affairs Office 
warned us it might be difficult to get tickets given the likely 
high demand by people returning to Lhasa following the end of 
Chinese New Year, we did not find the train to be overly packed. 
 According to one attendant, the train we were on carried 
approximately 600 passengers, far fewer than the over 2,000 
passengers it sometimes accommodates (with additional cars) 
during the peak summer period.  Most of the people we ran into 
on the train appeared to be migrant laborers from inland China 
returning to work on construction projects in the TAR.  The only 
military presence we noted was a soft-sleeper compartment filled 
with six uniformed Peoples Armed Police (PAP) non-commissioned 
officers.  An FAO handler met us in Lhasa and accompanied us to 
meetings with tourism, railroad, and labor officials. 
 
 
 
Tourism: A Pillar of Tibet's Civilian Economy 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶3. (SBU) According to Wang Songping, the Deputy Director of the 
TAR Tourism Bureau, visits by 4.02 million tourists during 2007 
resulted in earnings of 4.85 billion RMB (USD 700 million), or 
one-seventh of Tibet's civilian GDP.  Rural people also 
benefited from tourism, with 8,714 rural households and 34,000 
rural people earning money from tourism.  A Tourism Bureau study 
found that 43 percent of tourists to the TAR arrive by train. 
Increased tourist traffic through the new airport in Linzhi 
(eastern TAR) and then to Lhasa will reduce high altitude 
adjustment problems since tourists can arrive at 
2,900-meter-high Linzhi (Nyintri in Tibetan) and gradually climb 
to Lhasa (alt: 3,700 meters).  The tourist bureau has found that 
less than 10 percent of tourists arriving at Linzhi and then 
going to Lhasa have altitude adjustment problems, while nearly 
all who fly directly to Lhasa suffer some adjustment 
difficulties. 
 
 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Wang acknowledged that overcrowding in Lhasa during 
the peak May - September tourist season is a particular concern. 
 Due to the limited capacity of Lhasa to absorb tourists, 
tourism officials want to develop facilities outside of Lhasa as 
 
CHENGDU 00000043  002.2 OF 004 
 
 
well as high-quality tourist packages that will increase the 
average spending of visitors to the TAR.  During 2007, the 
number of Japanese tourists exceeded the number of tourists from 
the United States for the first time.  (Note: according to one 
official press report, approximately 78,000 Japanese tourists 
visited the TAR in 2007, a year-on-year increase of 488 percent. 
 End Note.)  Wang commented that Japanese tourists are very 
fussy about quality while U.S. tourists are "more 
understanding."  Although the Potala Palace has a nominal 2,500 
visitor daily limit to control crowding, the limit is often 
exceeded during the peak season.  The TAR is cooperating with 
the UN Development Program on a USD 400,000 project on 
sustainable tourism development. 
 
 
 
Pressures on the Environment 
 
---------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) Wang noted that China's 11th Five-Year Program 
anticipates TAR tourism will reach six million by 2010, the last 
year of the program, and nine million during the course of the 
Twelfth Five-Year Program.  Protecting Tibet's tourism is 
essential, Wang asserted.  Future tourism development will 
depend upon first satisfying the condition that the environment 
must be protected.  Wang claimed the Tourism Bureau has little 
idea of the relative numbers of migrant workers versus tourists 
to the TAR.  He noted, however, he thought the Qinghai-Tibet 
Railroad kept a record of such information. 
 
 
 
Lhasa's New Railway Station 
 
--------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶6.  (C) Based just upon our initial observations, the three 
platforms and seven tracks of the massive Lhasa station, would 
appear to provide considerable room for expansion of rail 
passenger and freight service to what remains a relatively small 
city by Chinese standards.  Two to three additional platforms 
and four to six tracks could be added in the empty area just 
beyond the platforms.  (Comment: judging by labels on consumer 
products we saw on store shelves in Lhasa, it appears that 
Lanzhou in Gansu Province may have become a major logistics 
center for the TAR.  End Comment.) 
 
 
 
¶7. (SBU) When asked about possible railroad expansion into other 
areas of the TAR, Lhasa's deputy stationmaster noted that early 
official reports the rail system would be extended to Shigatse 
by 2009 were overly optimistic and the project has not yet even 
started.  According to the deputy stationmaster, during peak 
season 4,000 people per day arrive in Lhasa by train.  From 
November to March (off-season), the trains are often half empty. 
 The railroad "just sells tickets," the stationmaster claimed, 
it does not keep data on the breakdown between migrant workers, 
businesspeople, and tourists visiting the TAR.  Based on an 
informal survey, foreigners arriving on the train are mostly 
from Japan, South Korea and Southeast Asia.  When asked about 
freight tonnage on the train, the deputy stationmaster noted 
very little cargo moves out of the TAR, but that a lot of food 
and "beer" is brought in on the train. 
 
 
 
¶8. (SBU) According to the deputy stationmaster, train service 
has been reliable, although the recent heavy snows in the 
Changsha, Hunan area prevented Guangzhou trains from reaching 
Lhasa for several days.  The Qinghai-Tibet Railroad is training 
the first generation of Tibetan railroad workers: 28 of the 156 
workers at the station are ethnic Tibetans. Cars for the 
Qinghai-Tibet Railroad are manufactured in Qinghai using 
Canadian technology.  Waste water from the train is not dumped 
on the tracks as happens sometimes in inland China but is 
instead stored in tanks under each car and then drained into 
sewerage plants at railroad stations in Xining, Golmud, and 
Lhasa. 
 
 
 
 
CHENGDU 00000043  003.2 OF 004 
 
 
A Visit to the Labor Office 
 
--------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶9. (C) Yeshi, an ethnic Tibetan who is vice director of the TAR 
Labor and Employment Service Bureau, told us frankly that 
government authorities do not control or tightly regulate the 
migration of workers to the TAR from inland China.  Many people 
find jobs through relatives and friends.  During 2007, the 
Service Bureau helped 27,000 people find jobs and the official 
unemployment rate is 4.3 percent.  Officially, the TAR labor 
force has reached 1.55 million, a figure that includes some 
migrant workers.  When asked directly to what extent labor force 
statistics include migrant workers, Yeshi appeared to have no 
idea.  Based on what Yeshi told us, there may be no active 
collection of statistics on migrant workers coming to Tibet by 
the labor authorities. (Note:  Chinese academics who study 
migration into Lhasa rely on estimates from the TAR Public 
Security Bureau and the Family Planning authorities - see 
reftels a and b.  End Note.)  Yeshi remarked the biggest problem 
faced by the Labor Service Bureau is the great difficulty of 
facilitating the export of rural labor to urban areas. (Comment: 
 While migration to the cities and remittances back home from 
rural migrants are an important source of income for rural 
China, rural Tibetans who seek to migrant to the Chinese 
interior or to Lhasa face a language barrier and competition 
from inland Chinese. End comment.) 
 
 
 
Nepali Consulate on Lhasa's Growth and the Railroad 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
 
 
¶10.  (C) A Nepali consul (protect), who has worked in Lhasa for 
three years, told CG his Consulate's best estimate for Lhasa's 
population is 800,000 people.  The increase in the number of 
ethnic Han residing in the city has been quite noticeable during 
his tenure.  Citing what he referred to as more conservative 
estimates for the population of Lhasa at between 300,000 to 
500,000 people, with an ethnic composition of between 50 to 75 
percent Tibetan, the Nepali consul observed the inflow of Han 
during recent years means the city's current population is 
either predominantly Han or soon will be.  He added, however, 
that rural Tibetans have also been migrating to Lhasa.  The 
Consul estimated 82 percent of businesses in Lhasa are run by 
Han. 
 
 
 
¶11. (C) Although no specific time table has been announced for 
extending the Qinghai-Tibet railroad from Lhasa to Shigatse, 
local authorities have told the Nepali Consulate they will only 
need two years to complete the project once it is begun.  Keen 
to try to increase exports from Nepal to China, Nepal has 
officially requested that a railway spur be eventually built 
from Shigatse to the Nepal-China border.  The consul also noted, 
however, such a line would likely result in more Chinese goods 
going into Nepal. 
 
 
 
Comments 
 
-------- 
 
 
 
¶12. (C) As illustrated by our recent visit, it is difficult to 
get a precise handle on the current population of Lhasa and its 
ethnic breakdown.  Reftels discuss possible interpretations and 
analyses, noting that official population statistics for any 
city in China do not usually include migrant labor and 
government authorities are not always consistent in specifying 
whether overall city population statistics they cite include 
outlying districts.  According to an official August 2005 report 
(which did include estimates on migrant labor) that we accessed 
from a Lhasa City government web site, Lhasa's urban population 
was then 257,000 people including a floating population of 
100,000 migrant workers and tourists.  This official website 
2005 report (online at   
http://tinyurl.com/ypt8xo ) estimate of 100,000 migrant workers 
in Lhasa during peak season is consistent with some Chinese 
 
CHENGDU 00000043  004.2 OF 004 
 
 
scholarly estimates (reftels) based on public security and 
family planning data which add number of migrant workers and 
tourists to the officially registered population rather than, as 
in the website report, including them in the urban population. 
 
 
 
¶13. (C) Post notes that this 2005 floating population estimate 
(likely accurate) may have been placed on the Lhasa website by 
mistake, since migrant worker counts, as noted above, are as a 
rule not included in Chinese estimates of urban population.  The 
2005 report also claimed 264,000 additional people in 
"agriculture and pastoral" districts under Lhasa city, for a 
total Lhasa population of permanent population of 521,500 
people, 90 percent of whom were reportedly ethnic Tibetans or 
other minorities (an almost impossible low and logically 
inconsistent figure of about 52,000 Han).  Anecdotal reports and 
scholarly studies suggest that the proportion of Tibetans is 
much lower, especially in the urban districts.  A 2006 scholarly 
study (reftel A) found 34 percent ethnic Han in urban districts 
(or at least 17 percent Han overall since the urban district was 
about half the population) already in 2000. 
 
 
 
¶14. (C) Recent estimates of some Chinese scholars put Lhasa's 
permanent urban population ("shi qu") at around 400,000, to 
which they add over 200,000 migrant workers (mostly from inland 
China) during the peak season.  Over the last several years, and 
especially after the July 2006 start of train service, Lhasa's 
migrant worker and tourist population has grown very rapidly. 
Realistically, based on continued inflows of people from inland 
China, as well as the observations of most longtime Tibet 
watchers, there appears little doubt that Lhasa is becoming 
increasingly Han. 
 
 
 
¶15. (U) This report was coordinated with Embassy Beijing. 
BOUGHNER