VZCZCXRO8154
RR RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHTN #0047/01 0670927
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 070927Z MAR 08
FM AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2613
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RUEHLU/AMEMBASSY LUANDA 0229
RUEHSA/AMEMBASSY PRETORIA 5961
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEHTRO/AMEMBASSY TRIPOLI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAPE TOWN 000047 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/S 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/2018 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM SF
SUBJECT: ID LEADER DE LILLE BELIEVES ZUMA GOING TO JAIL 
 
REF: A. PRETORIA 43 AND PREVIOUS 
     ¶B. 2000 PRETORIA 9150 
     ¶C. 2003 PRETORIA 3421 
     ¶D. PRETORIA 66 
     ¶E. CAPE TOWN 38 
     ¶F. PRETORIA 306 
 
CAPE TOWN 00000047  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Eric M. Bost.  Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY:  Prominent opposition leader Patricia de 
Lille believes ANC President Jacob Zuma will likely be 
convicted on fraud and corruption charges.  De Lille doubts 
Zuma's trial, scheduled to begin in August, will be  complete 
before the national parliamentary elections in March/April 
2009, putting the ANC in an "awkward spot" given that it has 
already decided that the ANC president will be its candidate 
for national president.  De Lille  strongly opposes the ANC 
push to disband the Scorpions.  She has always found the 
Scorpions to be effective and independent -- unlike the 
police.  The latest political attack on the Scorpions comes 
from the ANC-led Parliamentary Intelligence Committee.  The 
Committee charged that senior Scorpions officials drafted the 
 "Special Mole Browse Report," which alleged that Angola and 
Libya funded Zuma's ANC election campaign.  De Lille 
dismissed the Intelligence Committee criticism as politically 
motivated.  END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------------ 
Zuma Likely to be Found Guilty 
------------------------------ 
 
¶2. (C) In a February 27 meeting in her parliamentary offices 
in Cape Town, Independent Democratic (ID) party leader 
Patricia de Lille told Ambassador, Consul General, and PolOff 
(notetaker) that she believes Jacob Zuma will be  convicted 
of fraud and corruption.  The case against Zuma  is nearly 
identical to that against Schabir Shaik -- and  Shaik was 
convicted and lost every appeal (ref A).  De  Lille has 
"absolute faith" in the South African judiciary.  She 
questioned whether the trial against Zuma would be completed 
before the national parliamentary elections in March/April 
2009, noting that prosecutors want to call 218  witnesses, 
include de Lille herself.  (NOTE: While still a member of the 
Pan African Congress (PAC), de Lille was one of the first 
Members of Parliament to raise questions about corruption in 
the arms deal (ref B).  De Lille left the PAC  to found the 
Independent Democrats in 2003 (ref C), but the party has 
struggled to attract support.  In the 2004 elections, the ID 
garnered only 1.73 percent of the vote, mostly among the 
colored community in Western Cape.  END  NOTE.) 
 
¶3. (C) If the trial of Zuma drags into 2009, the ANC will be 
put in an awkward position.  The National Executive Committee 
(NEC) has already decided that the President of the ANC -- 
now Jacob Zuma -- will be the party's candidate for national 
president (ref D).  Zuma himself is "quite stubborn" and is 
unlikely to step aside for another candidate, even if his 
trial is not complete before the election date. 
 
----------- 
ANC Divided 
----------- 
 
¶4. (C) The ANC caucus in Parliament is divided, de Lille 
said, with Zuma supporters now largely in control of the 
leadership.  The internal ANC squabbles and corruption 
scandals create political opportunities for opposition 
parties in the 2009 elections, de Lille said.  She 
criticized Democratic Alliance (DA) leader Helen Zille for 
"cozying up" to the Mbeki camp in the ANC, telling Zille 
directly that "she is making a fool of herself."  Mbeki and 
Zuma supporters are all still part of the same party machine. 
 
------------------------------ 
Opposition to End of Scorpions 
------------------------------ 
 
¶5. (C) De Lille expressed her strong opposition to the ANC 
proposal to disband the Directorate for Special Operations of 
the National Prosecuting Authority, popularly known as the 
Scorpions (refs E & F).  She has worked closely with the 
Scorpions on a number of corruption scandals, and has always 
found them independent and responsive -- unlike the police. 
The Scorpions, de Lille noted, were particularly  effective 
because they had the power to arrest,  investigate, and 
 
CAPE TOWN 00000047  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
prosecute criminals.  Mbeki has been ambiguous on whether the 
proposed new police unit, combining the Scorpions with the 
South African Police  Service's Organized Crime Unit, will 
retain prosecutorial powers.  De Lille thinks this is a key 
point and will  specifically ask the President in Parliament 
on March 6 about the powers of the new unit.  The current 
staff of the Scorpions are "morally drained" and exhausted by 
the constant attacks.  Scorpions investigators are highly 
skilled, and many are already looking for other work. 
 
¶6. (C) According to de Lille, Zuma supporters are using a 
Parliamentary Intelligence Committee investigation into the 
"Special Browse Mole Consolidated Report" to attack the 
Scorpions (septel).  (NOTE:  The Browse report was an 
internal South African Government document, leaked to the 
press in 2007, that alleged that the Governments of Angola 
and Libya were funding Jacob Zuma's campaign for ANC 
President against Thabo Mbeki.  Zuma supporters claimed that 
the "Browse Mole Report" was fabricated and part of a dirty 
tricks campaign by Mbeki to discredit Zuma.  END  NOTE.)  The 
Parliamentary report charged that senior Scorpions officials 
drafted the "Browse Mole Report," using faulty intelligence 
received from discredited "information peddlers" even though 
they had no mandate or authorization to do so.  De Lille 
noted that this is the first time the Intelligence Committee 
has publicly released an internal report, confirming for her 
that the investigation is nothing more than a political 
witchhunt against the Scorpions.  She expressed concern about 
the increasing use of state  institutions to fight political 
battles. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
SAG Incompetence on Electricity Crisis 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (C) Ambassador expressed his concern that South Africa's 
recent electricity crisis will discourage international 
investment in the country.  De Lille agreed, noting that the 
crisis was a "wake-up call" to South Africans.  Nearly 7,000 
miners have already lost jobs due to the energy shortage.  De 
Lille's party had called for the vote of no confidence in 
Mbeki's government because of their complete failure to deal 
with the energy issue, despite being 
alerted 10 years ago to the impending crisis (ref F). 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶8. (C) Opinionated and energetic, de Lille has been unable to 
translate her personal popularity into electoral strength at 
the polls, in part because of her poor management of the 
party and large ego.  However, de Lille continues to play a 
vocal role in Parliament and the press on issues of 
government accountability and corruption.  We agree with de 
Lille that the ANC push to disband the Scorpions is 
unfortunate given the Directorate's strong record of 
successful prosecutions against corrupt officials and 
organized crime. 
 
¶9. (U) MINIMIZE CONSIDERED FOR TRIPOLI. 
LA LIME