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C O N F I D E N T I A L USEU BRUSSELS 000224 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/08/2018 
TAGS: PREL PREF ESDP CD EUN
SUBJECT: DEPLOYMENT OF EU FORCE TO CHAD HANGS IN BALANCE 
 
Classified By: PolMinCouns Larry Wohlers for reasons 1.4 (b,d). 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: France is fully committed to deploying the EU 
military force to Chad/CAR (EUFOR) and appears to have the 
backing of HiRep Solana, the Slovenian Presidency, and 
others, according to contacts at the EU and various member 
state PermReps.  But Austria and Sweden are in 
creasingly 
hesitant about exposing their troops to risk in an unstable 
environment, and Germany continues to doubt the mission's 
scope and capacity.  Although the Operational Headquarters 
has restarted deployment within the past 24 hours, according 
to a UK contact, the EU's Political and Security Committee 
(PSC) was meeting today to decide whether it approved.  At a 
minimum, France faces increased EU member state concern about 
the quality of military intelligence given the apparent lack 
of warning that rebels were descending on N'Djamena Feb. 1 
and 2.  French contacts say the Operation Commander, Irish 
Gen. Patrick Nash, is empowered to decide when the mission 
goes forward, but other member states say there must also be 
political consensus.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (C) The PSC met in emergency session Feb. 3 and suspended 
deployment of EUFOR indefinitely in response to violent rebel 
attacks in N'Djamena.  That decision came less than a week 
after EU foreign ministers gave their final approval to the 
mission on Jan. 28, some seven months after it was first 
proposed by French FM Kouchner.  Now the EU is wrestling with 
the question of whether it is safe enough in Chad now to 
deploy.  The PSC debated the issue Feb. 5 and is discussing 
it again today.  In various conversations with poloffs this 
week, Ireland, Germany, France, and Slovenia expressed 
support for deployment soon, while Sweden expressed some 
doubts, as did Austria, according to reports. 
 
¶3. (C) The EU is caught between conflicting realities on 
several fronts.  EU decision-makers want to make certain 
before deploying that rebels are not regrouping for another 
assault, but they also face the impending start of the rainy 
season in a couple of months which means deployment must 
start very soon or wait until fall.  Additionally, EU leaders 
wonder how much they are being manipulated by the political 
leadership in Sudan, which is widely assumed here to have 
supported the Chadian rebels.  Questions being raised by 
member states include: Did Sudan orchestrate the rebel 
attacks to deter EUFOR on the eve of its deployment?  If so, 
will it happen again?  If EUFOR is canceled, will Sudan have 
"won"? 
 
¶4. (C) France, which has always championed the mission 
despite indifference or opposition from a number of EU member 
states, including the UK and Germany, firmly expects the 
mission to go forward.  The majority of the 3,700 troops will 
be French, but 14 other member states have pledged troops and 
assets as well.  A French contact attributed the current cold 
feet by Austria and others to the fact that most of the 
troop-contributing countries have little experience in 
Africa.  He spoke about the need to protect refuge 
es and 
civilians and to prevent the entire region - encompassing 
Chad, Sudan, Central African Republic, and beyond - from 
sliding into chaos.  But member states wonder how involved 
France was in defending the Deby regime and whether that will 
compromise perceptions of EUFOR's neutrality.  They also 
wonder about the quality of intelligence coming from the 
region and whether future rebel attacks could catch EUFOR 
unawares. 
 
¶5. (C) Despite the many doubts and questions being raised in 
Brussels, it appears that the mission is still on track to go 
forward.  HiRep Solana's office said he is fully committed to 
seeing EUFOR deploy.  The Slovenian Presidency, in a written 
statement and in conversations, has stressed that the current 
suspension is a delay, not a cancellation.  Even Germany, 
which has never agreed to participate, said it will not block 
deployment and believes that as a face-saving measure, the EU 
must now deploy, according to a contact.  A French official 
also noted that it would be difficult for the EU to defend 
continued statements of concern from Brussels that were never 
backed up by action.  Next week may be an important window 
for decision-making in the EU.  The Council's Africa Working 
Group is scheduled to meet Feb. 11 and 13, and the PSC will 
meet Feb. 12, all with an eye to preparing Council 
Conclusions for the Feb. 18 General Affairs and External 
Relations Council (GAERC) meeting.  Comment: While the 
Operational Headquarters apparently has restarted deployment, 
the PSC is likely to want to give its political approval as 
well.  End Comment. 
MURRAY 
.