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C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 000221 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2018 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KS KN
SUBJECT: FEUDS UNLIKELY TO SIGNIFICANLTY DIMINISH GNP GAINS 
IN APRIL 
 
REF: SEOUL 000096 
 
Classified By: POL Joseph Y. Yun.  Reasons 1.4 (b,d). 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary: The conservative Grand National Party (GNP) 
-- out of power for the last decade -- is poised to win big 
in the April 9 National Assembly elections, giving them 
control over both the parliament and the Blue House.  The 
progressive United New Democratic Party (UNDP) is still 
floundering and is bracing for huge losses.  In Seoul alone 
the GNP is anticipating winning 46 of the 48 districts, while 
the UNDP is unlikely to win any.  Fears of splits within the 
two major parties are unlikely to be realized before the 
National Assembly election.  GNP infighting between rival Lee 
Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye factions continues but is 
unlikely to result in a party split, instead underscoring the 
mutual mistrust between the rival groups.  Defections from 
the UNDP have slowed, but the party's cohesiveness -- and its 
leader, Sohn Hak-kyu -- may not last much past the April 
elections.  End Summary. 
 
------------------------ 
General Election Outlook 
------------------------ 
 
¶2.  (C) The GNP is set to win a majority of the National 
Assembly seats in the April 9 election, with observers now 
speculating merely over how big that majority will be.  Song 
Hae-young, the Senior Adviser to UNDP Representative Im 
Jong-seok, on January 31 repeated party leader Sohn Hak-kyu's 
prediction to the Ambassador (reftel) that the UNDP was 
unlikely to win any of Seoul's seats.  Senior Secretary to 
GNP Representative Chin Young agreed, saying of Seoul's 48 
districts, at least 46 were very likely to go to the GNP. 
Meanwhile UNDP staffer Lee Seung-hee said that her boss, 
Representative Kim Won-wung, stood a better chance in his 
district of Daejeon, which she said would be almost equally 
divided between Lee Hoi-chang's party and the UNDP. 
According to Lee, support for the UNDP is higher in the 
technology hub because of Lee Myung-bak's decision to 
eliminate the Ministry of Science and Technology.  Lee 
Myung-bak, she said, has also made GNP enemies in Jeju by 
planning to abolish the April 3 Commission, w 
hich was established by then President Kim Dae-jung to look 
into allegations of past atrocities committed against the 
island's inhabitants. 
 
¶3.  (C) Nevertheless, voting trends in these isolated 
localities do not reflect nationwide voting patterns. 
Several leading first-term UNDP lawmakers recently told the 
Charge they had little hope for reelection in April, and that 
it could take 10-15 years to re-establish a viable liberal 
opposition party.  These lawmakers said, more so than in the 
U.S., overall trends and party strength influenced elections 
in each district.  In a separate meeting UNDP staffer Song 
agreed, and noted that people tend to vote for the party.  In 
some districts, he said, the UNDP candidate has more name 
recognition and was more popular, but people would vote GNP 
because of the party's popularity.  Song pointed out that in 
2004, the trend was exactly the opposite, with the 
progressive party enjoying much more support. 
 
------------- 
GNP Bickering 
------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) The feud between Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye 
factions in the GNP flared up again recently over a decision 
to "strictly apply" a party ethics rule on nominees for 
April's National Assembly elections.  Park supporters claim 
the rule, which requires that nominees be free of past 
charges on financial irregularities, disadvantages Park's 
backers -- who tend to be older veterans of Korea's turbulent 
political past -- and specifically targets Representative Kim 
Moo-sung, one of Park's closest confidants.  On January 31, 
Kim hinted at defecting from the party and 35 pro-Park 
members said they would join him.  The party's decision also 
affects some heavy-weights like Lee Myung-bak supporter Park 
Sung-vum and Kim Hyun-chul, the son of former President Kim 
Young-sam.  This latest feud will likely be resolved through 
a compromise, but, like those in the past, it represents the 
 
enormous mistrust between the two GNP factions. 
 
------------------------------ 
UNDP (Barely) Holding Together 
------------------------------ 
 
¶5.  (SBU) UNDP chair Sohn Hak-kyu appointed Park Jae-seung, 
an attorney and former Korea Bar Association chair, to head 
the party's nomination screening committee.  According to 
Song Hae-young, Park is a good person with a reputation for 
compromise, making it unlikely the nomination process will 
cause further division in the party.  Still, Park is a 
political novice who could easily be influenced by the party 
leadership.  Additionally the party is still fractious.  Some 
want to sideline President Roh Moo-hyun supporters within the 
party and seek a "change of the guard" in the Jeolla 
districts; the Chung Dong-young faction is pursuing its own 
goals; and there are still on again, off again merger talks 
with the smaller Democratic Party (DP). Meanwhile, Song told 
poloffs, former Prime Minister Lee Hae-chan might retire and 
support his chief of staff's candidacy instead.  Lee 
previously said he would do so if the party lost the 
presidential elections, but the younger UNDP lawmakers' 
demand that the party elders step down actually made it 
harder for Lee to do so now, Song said. 
 
------------------------------ 
Minor Parties Unlikely to Gain 
------------------------------ 
 
¶6.  (SBU) A host of new and existing minor parties will put 
forward candidates but are unlikely to become much of a 
political force.  Probably the most promising of these 
parties is Lee Hoi-chang's soon-to-be-formed "Freedom and 
Advancement Party."  The ultra-conservative three-time 
presidential candidate is touting the party as the only means 
of checking Lee Myung-bak.  Moon Kuk-hyun, who got almost 6 
percent of the votes in December's presidential election, 
announced in early January that he hoped his Creative Korea 
Party would win 30 seats, but he set similar inflated goals 
during his presidential candidacy.  The UNDP's minor 
coalition partner, the DP, is unlikely to exert anywhere near 
the influence it enjoys in the current National Assembly. 
Finally, the Democratic Labor Party (which holds only 9 of 
299 seats) is in the midst of an internal feud over the party 
leadership's decision to abandon its pro-North Korea image. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶7.  (C) Already enjoying a honeymoon with Lee Myung-bak's 
victory, the GNP's support is further boosted by the public's 
frustration with Roh Moo-hyun and the UNDP's inability to 
articulate a coherent message.  Ongoing GNP bickering could 
annoy voters, but they have few viable alternatives.  The GNP 
will likely stay together, though feuding will continue as 
each faction tries to maximize its influence.  The UNDP's 
fate is less certain.  It could split after the April 
elections, but the party's representation in the new National 
Assembly could be too small to make a split effective. 
STANTON