VZCZCXRO4328
RR RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM RUEHNH
DE RUEHGO #0102/01 0420428
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 110428Z FEB 08
FM AMEMBASSY RANGOON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7160
RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 1723
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 0891
RUEHKA/AMEMBASSY DHAKA 4760
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 4451
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 7982
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 5543
RUEHVI/AMEMBASSY VIENNA 0109
RUEHCN/AMCONSUL CHENGDU 1345
RUEHCHI/AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI 1373
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL KOLKATA 0212
RUEAUSA/DEPT OF HHS WASHDC
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHINGTON DC
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEHPH/CDC ATLANTA GA
RUCLRFA/USDA WASHDC
RUEHRC/USDA FAS WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 RANGOON 000102 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/MLS, G/AIAG 
PACOM FOR FPA 
USDA FOR FAS/PECAD, FAS/CNMP, FAS/AAD, APHIS; 
BANGKOK FOR USAID: JMACARTHUR, APHIS:NCARDENAS, REO:JWALLER 
 
E.O. 12958:N/A 
TAGS: EAGR EAID SENV PGOV PREL BIO KFLU BM
SUBJECT: BURMA: ECONOMIC IMPACT OF AVIAN INFLUENZA 
 
REF: A) Rangoon 91  B) 07 Rangoon 738 
 
RANGOON 00000102  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary.  Since March 2006, the Burmese Government has 
responded to ten avian influenza outbreaks throughout the country, 
with one human infection case.  Responding to these outbreaks, the 
Livestock Veterinary and Breeding Department (LBVD) culled more than 
430,000 chickens, 357,000 quail, 98,000 chicken eggs, and 76,000 
quail eggs, most of which were owned by private farmers.  The total 
value of the culled products totaled almost 1 billion kyat, or 
approximately $740,000.  The Burmese Government, due to lack of 
funding, does not have a comprehensive compensation plan.  In 2006, 
the GOB compensated a majority of the farmers with day-old chicks, 
low-cost loans, or cell phones.  However, the number of compensation 
packages in 2007 dropped dramatically, and military farms received 
many of the cell phones and day-old chicks.   Burmese farmers 
continue to struggle with the financial implications of AI 
outbreaks, and the GOB appears unwilling to improve compensation 
packages in 2008.  End Summary. 
 
Compiling the Data 
------------------ 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  Burma's first recorded outbreak of avian influenza (AI) 
occurred in March 2006.  Since then, the Burmese Government has 
responded to nine additional outbreaks in four divisions (Mandalay, 
Rangoon, Sagaing, and Bago) and two states (Mon and Shan).  With 
each new outbreak, the Livestock Breeding and Veterinary Department 
(LBVD), which is responsible for animal health issues, and the 
Ministry of Health (MOH), which monitors human health, have improved 
their detection and response capabilities (Reftel).  During the past 
two years, LBVD teams have culled a total of 439,895 chickens, 
357,305 quail, 98,500 chicken eggs, and 76,758 quail eggs.  Private 
farmers owned the majority of poultry and poultry products culled. 
 
 
¶3.  (SBU) The GOB does not keep statistics on the economic impact of 
AI outbreaks, nor does it evaluate how these outbreaks affect 
farmers' livelihoods.  Working with LBVD and business contacts, we 
were able to estimate the market value of the different poultry 
products culled:  chickens were worth between 1,000 and 2,000 kyat 
each ($0.80-1.60), quail were worth 200 kyat ($0.16), chicken eggs 
were 85 kyat each ($0.07), and quail eggs were 20 kyat each ($0.02). 
 The total value of poultry products culled was approximately 
926,873,540 kyat, or approximately $741,498.  On average, each 
chicken farm lost poultry worth 1,946,612 kyat ($1,557), not 
including future revenues, and each quail farm lost an average of 
401,390 kyat ($321) due to culling.  Considering that the average 
Burmese earns $23/month, these losses are substantial. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
          Economic Value of Burma's AI Outbreaks 
                     2006-2007 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
Area       No. of Farms       Total          Market 
           Affected           Culled         Value* 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
Mandalay 180 Ckn Farms    236067 Ckn     472,134,000 
 (2006)   68 Quail Farms  172997 quail    34,599,400 
                           91353 ckn egg   7,765,005 
                           50000 quail egg 1,000,000 
 
Sagaing  228 Ckn Farms    100023 Ckn     200,046,000 
 (2006)   69 Quail Farms  150613 quail    30,122,600 
                            7075 Ckn egg     601,375 
                           26758 quail egg   535,160 
 
 
RANGOON 00000102  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
Rangoon   23 Ckn Farms     65000 Ckn     131,732,000 
(Feb 07) 
 
Rangoon    1 Ckn Farm        866 Ckn       1,732,000 
(May 07) 
 
Bago       1 Ckn Farm        690 Ckn       1,380,000 
(June 07) 
 
Bago       1 Ckn Farm       5213 Ckn      10,426,000 
(July 07) 
 
Mon        2 Ckn Farms       980 Ckn       2,940,000 
(July 07) 
 
Bago      48 Quail Farms   40000 Quail     8,000,000 
(Oct 07) 
 
Shan       Village farms   22804 Ckn      22,804,000 
(Nov 07) 
 
Shan       Village Farms    1056 Ckn   1,056,000 
(Dec 07) 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
Total                                    926,873,540 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
Source:  compiled from LBVD 
*Value in kyat 
 
Compensating the (Some) Farmers 
------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) While the GOB technically has a compensation plan on the 
books, more often than not, it provides no funds to reimburse 
farmers for their loss (Ref B).  When payment does occur, it often 
takes the form of in-kind compensation, such as cell phones, 
low-cost loans, vitamin supplements for poultry, or day-old chicks, 
rather than cash. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) In 2006, the government provided 323 farmers from Mandalay 
and 150 farmers from Sagaing cell phones.  Each cell phone was worth 
1,500,000 kyat ($1,200).  We understand that many farmers resold 
their phones for approximately 3 million kyat, earning a profit of 
$2400.  Additionally, the Myanmar Livestock and Fisheries 
Development Bank in 2006 offered farmers in Mandalay and Sagaing 
Division low-cost loans totaling 57 million kyat ($45,000) at a rate 
of 19 percent (half of the current market rate in Burma).  Farmers 
had one year to pay back the loan, although LBVD officials could not 
confirm that repayment occurred. 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  Farmers also received support from the Food and 
Agriculture Organization (FAO) in 2006.  FAO provided the GOB's 
Livestock Feedstuff and Milk Produce Enterprise with 300 grant 
parent stock chickens to produce day-old chicks.  Between September 
2006 and January 2007, the GOB distributed 83,670 day-old chicks 
worth 35.4 million ($28,000) kyat to farmers in Sagaing and Mandalay 
Division, replacing only 0.01 percent of chickens and quail culled. 
FAO also distributed 15.6 million kyat worth of poultry vitamin 
supplements to farmers in Sagaing and Mandalay Divisions in 2006. 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  The GOB also provided some compensation to farmers in 
2007, although less than in the previous year.  The Ministry of Post 
and Telecommunications distributed 38 cell phones to the 24 
AI-infected farms in Rangoon, which included several military farms. 
 Some farmers resold these cell phones, earning an estimated profit 
of 1.2 million kyat ($960).  Farmers from Bago Division, Mon State, 
 
RANGOON 00000102  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
and Shan State did not receive cell phones. 
 
¶8.  (SBU)  The FAO continued to provide assistance to farmers in 
2007, donating 13.9 million kyat worth of vitamin supplements to 
farmers in Rangoon Division, 4.7 million kyat worth in Bago 
Division, 300,000 kyat worth in Mon State and 900,000 kyat worth to 
Eastern Shan State.  We understand that the GOB also provided 
day-old chicks to several farms in Rangoon and Bago, although many 
went to military-owned farms.  Village farms in Shan State may 
receive native chickens (rather than commercial-quality chickens) to 
replace their lost stocks, LBVD officials told us. 
 
¶9.  (SBU)  According to LBVD, the GOB, led by the Rangoon Division 
Broiler Producer Association, will establish a revolving fund for 
AI, which will enable farmers affected by AI to rehabilitate and 
restock their farms.  The Association estimates it will collect at 
least one million kyat per month from farmers and live bird market 
stores, which should contribute one kyat per bird.  The Myanmar 
Livestock and Fisheries Development Bank will hold the funds, and 
will disburse them to AI-infected poultry farms as compensation. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶10.  (SBU)  Burmese farmers continue to struggle to recover from the 
financial losses due to AI outbreaks.  International organizations 
have been reluctant to assist with compensation to avoid reimbursing 
the Burmese military.  While military farms received compensation in 
2007, the majority of private farmers continue to wait for some GOB 
assistance, which will likely never come.  Officers at LBVD are 
sympathetic to the farmers' plight and recognize the need for a 
comprehensive compensation plan, but have little means by which to 
offer assistance.  Should more AI outbreaks occur in remote areas 
where communications are rudimentary, we have less confidence that 
farmers will report possible AI outbreaks to local LBVD officials. 
Until Burma has a compensation plan that ensures civilian farmers 
receive compensation, they will have little incentive to report 
outbreaks. 
 
VILLAROSA