VZCZCXRO3916
PP RUEHPOD
DE RUEHPOD #0064 0521634
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 211634Z FEB 08
FM AMEMBASSY PODGORICA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0641
INFO RUEHBW/AMEMBASSY BELGRADE PRIORITY 0294
RUEHVJ/AMEMBASSY SARAJEVO PRIORITY 0065
RUEHPS/USOFFICE PRISTINA PRIORITY 0074
RUEHVB/AMEMBASSY ZAGREB PRIORITY 0120
RUEHSQ/AMEMBASSY SKOPJE PRIORITY 0025
RUEHBM/AMEMBASSY BUCHAREST PRIORITY 0001
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO PRIORITY 0069
RUEHPOD/AMEMBASSY PODGORICA 0707

UNCLAS PODGORICA 000064 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV MW
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRO TO RECOGNIZE KOSOVO, BUT NOT YET 
 
REF: STATE 16762 
 
1.(SBU) Summary: FM Rocen sees nothing to prevent GoM 
recognition of Kosovo, but not until after April Presidential 
elections.  Serbia has made little effort to rally regional 
support for its position. The GoM continues to push for rapid 
integration for itself and its neighbors into NATO, and Rocen 
suggests that Kosovo should be invited to join PfP as soon as 
possible. End summary. 
 
NO CHANGE IN MONTENEGRO'S POSITION: NO RUSH 
 
2.(SBU) Ambassador delivered reftel demarche to Montenegrin 
Foreign Minister Milan Rocen (protect) February 21. Rocen 
reiterated the GoM's (private) position that it does not oppose 
Kosovo independence, but will not be in a position to recognize 
it until after April presidential elections (first round on 
April 6, second round on April 20). In response to the 
Ambassador's question as to whether Rocen saw any obstacle to 
speedy recognition once the election is over, the FM said he did 
not. He noted that a scheduled February 26 visit by a senior 
Romanian delegation to Montenegro was planned long ago and 
should not be seen as a Romanian attempt to talk the GoM out of 
recognizing Kosovo. A decision by Croatia and Macedonia to 
recognize would also make Montenegro's decision that much 
easier, Rocen said. 
 
3.(SBU) Rocen discussed the rather tepid efforts that Serbia has 
made to rally regional support for its position. President Tadic 
sent a letter to President Vujanovic today (obviously a form 
letter to all heads of state, Vujanovic reported to Rocen by 
telephone during our conversation), which left Rocen 
unimpressed. "Serbia is making no special effort" to win 
Montenegro over; even Serbian FM Jeremic had not called him. 
Serbia is instead relying solely on Russia as its champion, he 
said. 
 
MOVING THE BALKANS INTO EURO-ATLANTIC COMMUNITY 
 
4.(SBU) As he has before, Rocen stressed the importance of 
integrating countries in the region into the Euro-Atlantic 
sphere, including NATO. He said Montenegro (probably Rocen and 
DefMin Vucinic) would present their IPAP to NATO missions in 
Brussels in mid-March.  He also reiterated Montenegro's hope 
that A3 members Croatia, Macedonia, and Albania would be invited 
to join NATO at the Bucharest Summit. 
 
5.(SBU) In that same vein, he suggested that Kosovo should be 
invited to join PfP as soon as possible. The Ambassador noted 
that it might be difficult to create a consensus to issue an 
invitation at this early stage, when some member states had yet 
to recognize the prospective new member. 
 
6.(SBU) Comment: Given the realities of the upcoming political 
campaign, it is unlikely the GoM could be persuaded to recognize 
Kosovo before April. However, while he lamented again the lack 
of EU consensus to follow, Rocen did not see that -- or anything 
else -- as a show-stopper for eventual GoM recognition. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Basically, the ruling DPS is looking at the strong 
possibility of a second round run-off between DPS incumbent 
Vujanovic and opposition challenger Medojevic (or possibly 
Mandic of the Serb List).  If the GOM were to take a stand now 
on recognition, it believes that that would coalesce the entire 
pro-Serb electorate against Vujanovic. 
 
 
 
¶8.  (SBU)  The other key issues, of course, are good relations 
with both Pristina and Belgrade and the GOM's desire to preserve 
general domestic tranquility - which it has managed to maintain 
as a result of its balancing act.  Given the strength of the 
pro-Serb forces here and given Kostunica's continuing disdain 
for Montenegro's separation from Serbia, the GOM believes that 
Montenegro has a lot more to lose by poisoning its relationship 
with Serbia than other countries in the region.  As President 
Vujanovic said to the Ambassador once, "imagine our challenge in 
arguing to our public that we need to recognize Kosovo when 
another neighboring state like Romania, a member of the EU and 
NATO and with a tiny Serb population, will not." 
 
MOORE