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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 000332 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2018 
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR MOPS KDEM NP IN
SUBJECT: GOI WARNS POWELL OF GROWING UML-MAOIST ALLIANCE 
AND PROMISES TO INCREASE INDO-NEPAL BORDER SECURITY 
 
Classified By: PolCouns Ted Osius for Reasons 1.4 (B,D) 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY:  Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) Joint 
Secretary for North (Nepal and Bhutan) Preeti Saran told 
 
SIPDIS 
Ambassador Nancy Powell she thought the United 
Marxist-Leninist (UML) Party and the Maoists were forming an 
alliance ahead of Nepali elections.  Saran expressed concern 
that Nepali civil servants were fearful of speaking out 
against the increasing influence of the Maoist-organized 
Youth Communist League (YCL) in Nepal's bureaucracy. 
Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) Secretary for Border 
Management Umesh Narayan Panjiar confirmed to Ambassador 
Powell the Government of India's (GOI) full support to Nepal 
to ensure that criminal elements and violence were kept to a 
minimum on the Indo-Nepal border during elections.  A group 
of roundtable experts told Ambassador Powell that India used 
the Terai to maintain balance in the region, that the Maoists 
were prepared to move into a post-election vacuum, and that 
Nepal's political parties were not prepared for elections. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
MEA Concerned Over "Newfound UML-Maoist Unity" 
------- 
 
¶2.  (C) In a January 30 meeting, MEA Joint Secretary for 
North (Nepal and Bhutan) Preeti Saran expressed concern to 
Ambassador Powell that a "newfound Left unity" among the UML 
Party and the Maoists was taking root in Nepal.  Recent 
Nepali delegations related a "disturbing trend" of the 
Maoist-run YCL's "creep into civil bureaucracy," according to 
Saran, adding that Nepali civil bureaucrats were increasingly 
fearful of repercussions for expressing dissenting views. 
Ambassador Powell assessed that the increasing YCL activity 
was worrisome, but had been more noticeable in threats to the 
business community than to the civil service.  She thought it 
was unlikely the UML would move toward a post-election 
alliance with the Maoists.  Citing a recent news item, Saran 
inquired whether the USG position had changed vis-a-vis 
Maoists.  Ambassador Powell replied that the story was a 
complete fabrication of the media, and that the U.S. position 
had not changed. 
 
MHA Committed to Border Security for Nepal Elections 
------- 
 
¶3.  (C) MHA Secretary for Border Management Umesh Narayan 
Panjiar assured Ambassador Powell January 30 that the GOI 
would provide all possible support to the Government of Nepal 
(GON) to ensure free and fair elections, and that border 
forces would be increased during elections.  It was essential 
that the Indian border patrol (Sashastra Seema Bal (SSB)) 
work with Indian states and the GON to keep criminal elements 
from crossing the border into the Terai during elections, 
said Panjiar.  He conceded, however, that substantial 
coverage of the long border was not possible, given the 
frequent daily crossings of local villagers.  Asked if the 
SSB used technology such as night-imaging to police the 
border, Panjiar replied that it did not, revealing that the 
level of sophistication on the Indo-Nepal border was not as 
great as that of the Indo-Pakistan or Indo-Bangladesh 
borders.  However, equipment would be upgraded for the Nepali 
elections, he maintained.  Ambassador Powell noted that 
violence surrounding political rallies was an issue of 
concern.  Panjiar agreed, stating that the violence "needed 
to be stopped," but did not elaborate on how border forces 
would prevent it. 
 
Indian Analysts:  India Uses the Terai to Maintain Balance 
------- 
 
¶4.  (C) In a roundtable discussion January 30, former 
Ambassador to Nepal K.V. Rajan opined that conflict in the 
Terai had always been an issue, and was nothing new.  Dr. 
Ajai Sahni, Executive Director of the Institute of Conflict 
Management, suggested that events in the Terai were used by 
India to maintain balance in the region.  Ravi Nair, 
Executive Director of the South Asia Human Rights 
Documentation Center, theorized the Maoists were no longer 
interested in operating in the Terai since they no longer 
controlled it, coining it the "Maoists' Frankenstein." 
Ambassador Powell underlined that India had an opportunity to 
play a positive role on many issues in the Terai, but had not 
yet stepped up to the plate. 
 
 
NEW DELHI 00000332  002 OF 002 
 
 
A Vacuum of Leadership 
------- 
 
¶5.  (C) Rajan indicated that a vacuum of leadership was 
looming in Nepal, asserting that the Maoists had both 
privately and publicly made clear that they would not accept 
the results of an election.  "Their behavior indicates they 
mean it," Rajan emphasized.  The army, he added, was looking 
forward to having a place in the emerging structure in Nepal, 
and pointed out that "all parties conduct themselves as if no 
election will happen."  Nair concurred, stating that the 
Maoists were positioning themselves to muscle their way 
center stage post-elections.  Defense analyst Major General 
Ashok Mehta, declaring that "not a leaf moves in Nepal" 
without the Maoists' approval, claimed that it was not 
possible to have a free and fair election.  Both Schni and 
Nair warned against dismissing the right-wing Rashtriya 
Prajatantra Party (RPP), observing that it was distancing 
itself from a monarchy-specific agenda.  "There is always a 
group of people who want to get back to the old order," 
argued Sahni. 
 
Indo-Nepal Military Relationship on the Rise 
------- 
 
¶6.  (C) On the military front, Mehta indicated that the GOI 
had resumed full military relations with Nepal and that 
Indo-Nepal training programs had grown and were now on par 
with Indo-Sri Lankan programs, though Nepal was short of 
training ammunition. 
 
¶7.  (U) Ambassador Powell cleared this cable. 
MULFORD