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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MUNICH 000063 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/13/2018 
TAGS: GM MARR NATO PARM PREL GG
SUBJECT: A/S FRIED'S AND AMB NULAND'S MEETING WITH GEORGIAN 
PRESIDENT SAAKASHVILI 
 
REF: MUNICH 52 
 
Classified By: CONSUL GENERAL ERIC G. NELSON, REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). 
 
¶1.  (C)  Summary: In a bilateral meeting on the margins of 
the Munich Security Conference on February 9, EUR A/S Daniel 
Fried and US Ambassador to NATO Victoria Nuland urged 
President Mikheil Saakashvili to show leadership in 
convincing allies that Georgia is ready for a NATO Membership 
Action Plan (MAP), including through free and fair 
parliamentary elections.  For the U.S., the decision lies now 
with the most senior levels of the USG, but even U.S. support 
for MAP might not be sufficient to convince all other NATO 
allies.  Saakashvili noted that USG support for MAP would be 
welcome, even if unsuccessful.  He promised Georgia would 
continue to pursue electoral reforms and predicted calm 
parliamentary elections in late May.  End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (U)  President Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia met A/S 
Daniel Fried and USNATO Ambassador Victoria Nuland in 
bilateral talks on the margins of the 44th Munich Security 
Conference February 9.  Saakashvili was accompanied by Daniel 
Kunin, Special Advisor.  Note taker was Kit Traub, USOSCE 
Vienna. 
 
¶3.  (C)  A/S Fried told President Saakashvili that the U.S. 
decision on whether to support a NATO MAP invitation to 
Georgia is now with the most senior levels of the USG.  There 
remained much resistance to MAP for Georgia among NATO 
allies.  Fried urged Saakashvili to continue working hard to 
convince Allies and to stay on the reform track at home, 
overcoming the doubts that had developed during the November 
demonstrations and the aftermath.  Saakashvili warned that a 
negative decision would surely embolden Russia, which would 
see it as vindication of negative policies toward Georgia. 
Further, he predicted that the Georgian public would 
interpret any postponement by NATO as a complete failure by 
the Georgian pro-Western leadership. 
 
¶4.  (C)  President Saakashvili said the Russians now seemed 
to be backtracking on FM Lavrov's earlier assurances that 
Russia would not recognize Abkhazia after Kosovo,s 
declaration of independence.  A/S Fried said he was not 
surprised by this Russian behavior ) Russia seemed intent on 
tormenting Georgia by flirting with recognition of Abkhazia. 
He added that Russia had been told very clearly that 
recognizing Abkhazia would constitute a major problem in 
relations with the U.S.  He said the USG would vigorously 
object to such an irresponsible Russian move in concert with 
Europe. 
 
¶5.  (C)  Saakashvili agreed with A/S Fried and Ambassador 
Nuland about the importance of having a parliamentary 
election in May that met international standards.  Although 
the attitude among NATO allies toward Georgia since the 
Presidential elections was improving from its low point in 
November 2007, Ambassador Nuland said it was clear that 
Georgia still needed to prove itself to the Europeans. 
Although the parliamentary elections would occur after the 
April NATO Summit in Bucharest, A/S Fried emphasized that it 
was still critical for Georgia to overcome all the 
shortcomings identified by the experts after the presidential 
election.  Saakashvili said he expected the opposition to 
engage fully in the campaign, perhaps even in a unified way. 
He predicted that their involvement and self-interest would 
inspire them to help keep the atmosphere stable and calm. 
The separatist conflicts had recently developed in a 
favorable way in recent weeks:  the pro-Georgian alternative 
leader of South Ossetia, Dmitri Sanakoyev, was increasing his 
support from the population, and Georgia &has the upper 
hand8 on security in Abkhazia (Saakashvili did not 
elaborate). Saakashvili said he believed the Russians feel 
"stuck," and therefore will not do anything constructive for 
a while. 
 
¶6.  (U)  A/S Fried cleared this cable, which also was 
coordinated with Embassy Berlin. 
 
¶7.  (U)  For more information on the 44th Conference and past 
conferences, visit:"http://www.securityconference.de". 
 
MUNICH 00000063  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶8.  (U)  Previous reporting from Munich is available on our 
SIPRNET website atwww.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/munich/. 
NELSON