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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MUNICH 000053 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR EUR/AGS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PARM NATO GM MARR
SUBJECT: ARMS CONTROL PANEL IGNORES REAL ISSUES AT MUNICH SECURITY 
CONFERENCE 
 
REF:  a) MUNICH 52 
      b) MUNICH 17 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.  NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION. 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The 44th annual Munich Conference on Security 
Policy, with this year's theme "The World in Disarray - Shifting 
Powers - Lack of Strategies?" took place February 8-10, 2008 at the 
Bayerischer Hof hotel in Munich, Germany (see reftels).  The second 
panel on February 9, "From Cooperation to Confrontation?  The Future 
of Arms Control" included speeches from German FM Frank-Walter 
Steinmeier, Senator Joseph Lieberman, IAEA DG Mohamed ElBaradei, and 
Kenneth Roth of Human Rights Watch.  While Steinmeier and ElBaradei 
pressed their arms control agenda, Senator Lieberman noted that the 
unique threats emanating from Iran merited a "uniquely powerful 
response."  Interestingly, no questioners asked for a greater 
explanation.  Unfortunately, ElBaradei barely mentioned Iran during 
his speech.  End Summary. 
 
FM Steinmeier pushes arms control agenda 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) FM Steinmeier lamented the lack of leadership by the U.S. 
and other nuclear powers in urging arms control and disarmament.  He 
called for additional confidence building measures to improve the 
global system of inspections and controls, and claimed that it was 
up to the West, and particularly the nuclear states, to demonstrate 
goodwill rather than only military power when pushing for a freer, 
more peaceful, and more just world.  Steinmeier fears a new global 
nuclear arms race and urged the Euro-Atlantic community, especially 
NATO, to come together to push an arms control agenda for the 21st 
century. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Steinmeier focused on the threat emanating from Iran, 
stating that despite the NIE Germany remains convinced that the 
danger from Iran is real and requires unified action, but did not 
accuse Iran of being the premier example of why the NPT is currently 
at risk.  Similarly, while expressing deep concerns over the current 
state of the CFE Treaty he, remarkably, did not once urge the 
Russian Federation to end its suspension of the treaty.  Playing 
further into the hands of Russian apologists, Steinmeier then 
switched immediately to discussing missile defense, calling for 
additional dialogue (despite the fact that such consultations are 
ongoing). 
 
Lieberman focuses on Iran 
------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Senator Lieberman focused his comments on Iran's nuclear 
ambitions.  He urged the audience to read the full published 
conclusions of the NIE and noted that, despite the NIE's assessment 
that Iran halted its covert work on bomb design in 2003 - perhaps as 
a result of the Iraq invasion - Iran continues its work on 
enrichment.  He praised Secretary Rice's offer to meet Iran "anytime 
and anywhere" provided Iran suspend "even only for the duration of 
the meeting" its enrichment efforts.  Lieberman then thanked the 
efforts of Great Britain, France and Germany in keeping the momentum 
up and working toward a third UNSC resolution and urged the 
expansion of additional EU sanctions.  Without mentioning Germany by 
name, Lieberman noted that "the power to prevent war with Iran lies 
disproportionately with those who have the greatest economic 
leverage over Iran." 
 
¶5. (SBU) In light of Iran's deceptions and the lack of real progress 
in negotiating with the Iranian government, Lieberman urged 
additional efforts.  Given the "unique terrible destructive power of 
nuclear weapons, we should take uniquely powerful precautions to 
prevent their acquisition by any regime whose leaders have openly 
called for the destruction of another state."  Interestingly, during 
the question and answer period, none among the attendees asked for a 
further explanation of the Senator's specific thoughts on what 
constitutes "uniquely powerful" measures to counter Iran. 
 
ElBaradei chides nuclear powers, says little about Iran 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Immediately following Senator Lieberman's speech, IAEA 
Director General Mohammed ElBaradei spoke and, remarkably, only 
briefly touched upon the issue of the Iranian nuclear program toward 
 
MUNICH 00000053  002 OF 003 
 
 
the end of his speech.  Furthermore, he did not even mention Senator 
Lieberman's exposition of the threat from Iran, choosing instead to 
endorse the recent Wall Street Journal article by Nunn, Perry, 
Shultz, and Kissinger, and advocating a global security structure 
that is not based on nuclear weapons.  He urged the nuclear "haves" 
to demonstrate renewed commitment to the eventual abolition of all 
nuclear weapons, arguing that without such a commitment, 
non-proliferation was "not sustainable."  ElBaradei spoke about the 
trafficking of nuclear materials, adding his fear that most of the 
nuclear materials recovered were never reported stolen.  Continuing 
his random stroll through the realm of arms control, ElBaradei next 
underlined that the CTBT is the "jewel in the crown" of 
non-proliferation. 
 
¶7. (SBU) ElBaradei then turned his sites on missile defense, 
criticizing the reliance on "shields instead of abolition," 
"hardware instead of software," and "hard power instead of soft 
power."  He recommended empowering the UN and the UNSC, but provided 
no guidance or vision on how that would work.  When he finally did 
mention Iran, ElBaradei made distinctions between the past, the 
present and the future.  He said that Iran has not been transparent 
about its past and that there is good progress in determining 
"whether" Iran actually had a weaponization program.  He reported 
that Iran is cooperating well on current issues related to the work 
plan, but added that questions about the future must still be 
addressed, mainly the suspension of the enrichment program, direct 
negotiations and regional security issues must be addressed. 
 
Support for U.S.-India nuclear deal 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (U) ElBaradei sounded a more positive note when responding to a 
question by German Bundestag member Uta Zapf (SPD) and Werner Hoyer 
(FDP) about the effect of the U.S.-India Nuclear Deal on the 
nonproliferation regime.  ElBaradei argued that the deal will bring 
India closer to the NPT framework - calling it a "win-win."  He 
added that it is unrealistic to expect India to join the NPT "even 
in 100 years" and noted that India has an excellent record on 
nonproliferation matters, despite the fact that it has not signed 
the treaty.  He also underscored that India, with some 650 million 
people living with unmet energy needs, has a desperate need for 
reliable energy development. 
 
Human Rights Watch pushes for cluster munitions ban 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶9. (U) The final, highly technical speech by Human Rights Watch 
Executive Director Kenneth Roth focused on need to ban the use of 
cluster munitions and on the so-called "Oslo Process," which aims to 
reach agreement "by year's end" to do just that.  He noted 
similarities between the effort to ban cluster munitions and the 
similar effort to ban anti-personnel land mines (the so-called 
Ottawa Agreement).  While recognizing CM have "limited military 
utility," Roth said that the use of CM kills an unacceptably large 
number of civilians, even months after the conflict has passed. 
Roth argued that only a total ban through Oslo -- rather than a 
"regulating" agreement through the Convention on Conventional 
Weapons -- will make the use of these weapons during conflicts as 
morally reprehensible as the use of land mines. 
 
¶10. (U) One interesting note, Roth called for the creation of a 
"hearts and minds fund" to compensate -- without accepting any legal 
responsibility -- those innocent civilians negatively affected by 
war or conflict.  He called on the EU to consider creating such a 
fund whereby the families of victims would receive assistance, 
financial or otherwise, should a military attack result in the 
innocent loss of life.  While there were no official interventions 
on this idea, corridor conversation following this panel took up 
this notion. 
 
¶11. (U) For more information on the 44th Conference and past 
conferences, visit: "http://www.securityconference.de" and 
"http://munich.usconsulate.gov." 
 
¶12. (U) This report has been coordinated with Embassy Berlin. 
 
¶13. (U) Previous reporting from Munich is available on our SIPRNET 
Website at www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/munich/. 
 
 
MUNICH 00000053  003 OF 003 
 
 
NELSON