VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHMO #0295/01 0361532
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 051532Z FEB 08
FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6411
INFO RUEHXD/MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOSCOW 000295 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/03/2018 
TAGS: EINV ENR EPET PGOV PREL PTER
SUBJECT: RUSSIA EMPHASIZES STABILITY IN GOTX RELATIONS 
 
REF: A. 07 MOSCOW 5701 
 
     ¶B. 07 MOSCOW 5231 
     ¶C. 07 MOSCOW 5955 
     ¶D. ASHGABAT 7 
     ¶E. 07 ASHGABAT 1335 
 
Classified By: Political M/C Alice G. Wells.  Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary:  Russian MFA officials and think tankers 
argue that Russia is comfortable with its relationship with 
the Berdimuhamedov regime, with the GOR emphasis on Turkmen 
stability over rapid democratic reform.  Russia is pushing 
Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) membership on an 
indifferent GOTX.  Russia remains concerned about the 
long-term viability of Turkmenistan's gas reserves and 
competition for the GOTX's supplies has given Ashgabat more 
leverage in price negotiations.  Russia sees itself as the 
big winner in the GOTX-Iranian gas dispute, and is banking on 
close historical ties to strengthen its position as dominant 
customer.  GOR investment in education and infrastructure, 
both current and hoped-for, are primarily aimed to promote 
Russia's primacy in Turkmenistan's political and economic 
development.  End Summary. 
 
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Stability Is Top Priority 
------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) Russian MFA officials and the think tank community 
discount the possibility of major political disputes between 
Russia and Turkmenistan, with the GOR comfortable with its 
warm relationship with the Berdimuhamedov regime.  Aleksandr 
Romansich, Counselor in the MFA Third CIS Department, and 
Vladimir Zharikhin of the CIS Institute both told us Russia's 
top priority in Turkmenistan was stability.  Arguing that 
political party leaders in Turkmenistan are largely clan 
leaders, Zharikhin asserted that Turkmenistan would find it 
difficult to achieve democracy in the Western sense.  Free 
and open elections would simply mean rival clans would 
struggle for power every few years.  Romansich separately 
agreed, arguing that, for the time being, Turkmenistan 
understood only strong leadership; two strong candidates for 
the post of president would simply result in a civil war. 
Democratic development should not be "rushed."  Romansich 
asserted that Russia would rather see authoritarianism in 
Turkmenistan than Islamic fundamentalism or chaos. 
 
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Russia Pushing SCO 
------------------ 
 
¶3. (C) Murad Yazberdiev, Counselor of the Embassy of 
Turkmenistan in Moscow, told us his government has no plans 
to join the CSTO or the SCO.  Romansich said the GOR 
understood Turkmen reservations, but added that Russia would 
continue to solicit Turkmenistan membership in the SCO. 
Romansich argued that Turkmenistan has been a reliable CIS 
member, and that SCO membership would facilitate greater 
cooperation among Turkmenistan and its neighbors. 
 
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Gas:  Russia's Top Bilateral Concern 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶4. (C) The experts, Russian MFA representatives, and Turkmen 
Embassy officials agree that the main issue in the 
Russo-Turkmen relationship is ensuring gas supplies. 
Turkmenistan delivers gas not only to Russia, but 
increasingly to China, Iran, and its other neighbors.  This 
has caused many to question the long-term viability of 
Turkmenistan's gas reserves, which is especially important to 
Russia, given its heavy reliance on Turkmenistan to supply 
European markets.  Turkmen Embassy officials dismissed 
concerns that Turkmenistan does not have enough gas to supply 
its neighbors (ref A).  He argued that such claims are made 
by "slackers who are not specialists."  Russian experts and 
the MFA disagree, although MFA's Romansich argued that with 
greater Russian investment, more gas fields could be 
developed, which would help Turkmenistan fulfill its 
obligations to its customers. 
 
¶5. (C) Increased competition for Turkmenistan's gas gives it 
a great deal of leverage in price negotiations (ref B), but 
according to Romansich, Russia's desire to be the dominant 
supplier of gas to Europe means it will remain an important 
customer for the foreseeable future.  Russia controls 
Turkmenistan's gas export routes to Ukraine and has recently 
solidified its position as the country's primary gas customer 
(ref A and C).  In the current gas dispute between 
Turkmenistan and Iran, caused by Turkmenistan's desire to 
raise the price Iran pays for gas (ref D), Russia has used 
its reserves to fill the supply void to countries that 
purchase from Iran, such as Turkey, further undermining 
Iran's reputation as a reliable gas supplier.  As some press 
reports and even Romansich have argued, Russia is the big 
winner in this dispute.  Pointing to Russia's close 
historical ties with Turkmenistan, Romansich argued that, 
"Old friends are better than new ones," and Russia hopes this 
will strengthen its position as one of Turkmenistan's 
reliable customers. 
 
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Russia Bullish On Turkmenistan 
------------------------------ 
 
¶6. (C) Romansich said the GOR is also looking for ways to 
invest in Turkmenistan's Avaza Tourism Zone (ref E), 
automobile factories, and other areas of the Turkmen economy. 
 The GOR also wants to help rebuild Turkmenistan's education 
system, largely by encouraging Russian instruction in Turkmen 
schools.  Zharikhin pointed out that this would serve 
Russia's interests in the short and long term.  As 
Turkmenistan seeks to join Russia as a major gas supplier in 
the region, strong economic and cultural linkages would help 
keep Turkmenistan in its sphere of influence. 
 
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Comment 
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¶7. (C) As Turkmenistan increasingly pursues an independent 
foreign policy, we look for Russia to increasingly turn to 
soft power to keep a stable, gas-producing Turkmenistan as 
close as possible.  Increasing investment in Turkmenistan, as 
well as promoting cultural ties, will most likely continue. 
The GOR hopes Russian investment in education, and in 
particular Russian language instruction, will mean future 
generations will look favorably at Russia. 
BURNS