VZCZCXRO4701
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RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHAG #0005/01 0531210
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 221210Z FEB 08
FM AMCONSUL HAMBURG
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0213
INFO RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN PRIORITY 0191
RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHAG/AMCONSUL HAMBURG 0233

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HAMBURG 000005 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/AGS 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL GM
SUBJECT: HAMBURG ELECTIONS TOO CLOSE TO CALL 
 
REF: A. A) FRANKFURT 0447 
 
     ¶B. B) BERLIN 0137 
     ¶C. C) 07 HAMBURG 068 
     ¶D. D) 07 HAMBURG 065 
 
HAMBURG 00000005  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY:  National and Hesse party leaders are 
anxiously awaiting Hamburg's February 24 state election results 
before taking critical decisions that could shape the political 
climate ahead of the 2009 Bundestag elections (Ref A).  Despite 
the polls, Consulate contacts say that the election outcome is 
difficult to predict and the implementation of Hamburg's new 
election law may complicate election results.  As the Christian 
Democratic Union (CDU) is likely to lose its absolute majority 
in the state parliament, two- and three-party coalition options 
will likely be the hot topic after the election results are in. 
Current polling data suggests that, outside of a grand 
coalition, two-party coalitions may not reach sufficient numbers 
to hold a majority, a consequence, in part, of the Left Party's 
emergence on Hamburg's political landscape.  The main question 
will likely be whether the CDU will cinch a coalition with the 
Greens, something the latter has dismissed, or whether the 
national grand coalition will be duplicated in Hamburg.  As for 
three-party coalitions, both the Social Democrats (SPD) and 
Greens have publicly ruled out a coalition with or tolerated by 
the Left.  A CDU-FDP-Greens coalition, which may turn out to be 
numerically possible, has been dismissed by the liberal Free 
Democrats (FDP), which will not cooperate with the Greens. 
Unless parties reverse positions -- always a possibility -- the 
most likely post-election scenario may be a CDU-led "grand 
coalition" with the SPD.  END SUMMARY. 
 
-------------------------------- 
Election Outcome Unclear 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) In the week prior to the election, all of ConGen 
Hamburg's contacts agree that the election outcome is difficult 
to predict.  In five polls released between February 14 and 18, 
the CDU received between 39 and 42 percent and the SPD between 
32 and 35 percent.  The Greens have been polling between nine 
and eleven percent; the Left Party's results range between seven 
and nine percent; and the FDP has been holding steady at five 
percent.  Voter turnout, however, will play a role with high 
turnout benefiting the larger parties, while the Greens, Left 
Party, and FDP will likely gain a higher percentage of the vote 
if turnout is low.  Further, Hamburg voters will be using 
unfamiliar ballots for these state and municipal elections. 
Under a new electoral law, each voter will be able to vote for a 
party and a total of five candidates for the state legislature 
and the municipal commissions (i.e. a total of twelve votes). 
Politicians fear that this new ballot may be confusing and lead 
to a high number of invalid ballots, which may bring election 
results into question. 
 
¶3.  (U) The main contest, clearly, is between the CDU and SPD in 
what has traditionally been SPD territory.  It was only in 2001, 
after 44 years of SPD leadership, that the CDU's Ole von Beust 
was able to cinch the elections as mayor in Hamburg.   Although 
the SPD regularly carries this city-state in national elections, 
carrying 47 percent of the vote in the 2005 Bundestag elections, 
the CDU has kept the SPD at bay in Hamburg.  This is mainly due 
to von Beust's personal popularity, which has held at over 50 
percent since September 2007.   Despite his "blackout" during 
closing remarks in a February 17 televised debate, SPD 
candidate, journalist Michael Naumann, has gained 14 percentage 
points in his popularity ratings since September and is now 
polling at 43 percent.  Education has become the leading topic 
in the election, followed by unemployment and social equality 
issues.  The SPD leads in voter confidence in both education and 
social equality issues, while the CDU is seen as more capable in 
solving unemployment and continuing economic growth. 
 
------------------------------------------- 
Coalition Options: No Easy Choices 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Despite these unknown factors regarding the actual 
election outcome, the focal point after the dust settles on the 
election results will be on coalition options.  Current polls 
show it numerically unlikely that the CDU could maintain its 
absolute majority or form a coalition with the FDP, which might 
not even muster the five percent needed to enter state 
parliament.  A CDU-Green coalition also appears problematic.  In 
a meeting with Pol/Econ Off February 6, Greens Hamburg 
Chairperson and Bundestag Member Anja Hajduk said that 
speculation over a Black-Green (CDU/Green) government, which may 
be numerically possible, is highly unrealistic.  She dismissed 
Mayor von Beust's musings over such a coalition as merely 
tactical and noted that the Greens' poll ratings dropped after 
the debate on a Black-Green coalition started in the press. 
Hajduk added that a Black-Green coalition would be difficult to 
 
HAMBURG 00000005  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
conceive due to important local policy differences between the 
two parties on environmental and education matters.   In a 
conversation with Pol/Econ Off on February 7, Hamburg CDU 
Chairperson Gregor Jaecke speculated that even if the Greens 
leadership were willing to form a coalition with the CDU, the 
party base, which is required to approve coalition agreements, 
would not support it.   Hajduk told us that the Greens would be 
prepared to enter coalition talks with the CDU if a Red-Green or 
"grand coalition" government is not feasible, although such an 
option would still be controversial within the Hamburg Greens 
who are traditionally more left-leaning than average. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) It is also unlikely that the SPD together with the 
Greens will out-perform current polls and obtain enough 
parliamentary seats to form a majority.  While Hajduk 
acknowledged that the SPD still remains the Hamburg Greens' 
desired coalition partner, she conceded that on the state and 
federal level the Greens are increasingly contemplating ways to 
overcome their "Babylonian captivity" with the SPD.  Further, 
while the polls do show that the SPD, Greens and Left Party will 
easily have enough votes to form a coalition, the SPD and Greens 
both in public and private meetings have categorically ruled out 
this option.  [Note: The SPD also made such public 
pronouncements in Hesse, but recent press reports and Embassy 
Berlin Pol M/C discussions February 21 with Hesse SPD party 
leaders reveal that the national and Hesse SPD are seriously 
considering an SPD-Green coalition supported by the Left.  End 
Note.] 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Observers and contacts have pointed to a "grand 
coalition" between the SPD and CDU as a likely scenario.  Both 
von Beust and Naumann have publicly said a "grand coalition" is 
their least-preferred option, nevertheless both Jaecke and SPD 
Caucus Leader Michael Neumann admitted that their parties would 
be willing to enter negotiations.   Jaecke expected that the SPD 
would be more willing to form a "grand coalition" with the CDU 
than to see a Black-Green government come to power. 
 
------------ 
Comment 
------------ 
 
¶7. (SBU) Assuming that the polls have correctly projected the 
results of Hamburg's elections, this Northern German city-state 
will send several messages to the national parties in Berlin. 
The first message is that the Left Party has firmly established 
itself in the "western" German political scene, thereby further 
cementing Germany's five-party political system, and making 
two-party coalitions numerically more difficult.  [Note: Mission 
Germany will be reporting on the emergence of the Left Party 
following the Hamburg elections.  End Note.]  Second, although 
the CDU may not be able to maintain its absolute majority, the 
party hopes to underscore that it can be successful as an urban 
party that is electable even in strong SPD territory.  Third, 
under Naumann the SPD has gained momentum in Hamburg, but 
continues to face the challenge of differentiating its policies 
from those of the CDU and the Left Party.  Although von Beust 
leads in candidate popularity numbers, 30 percent of the voters 
would prefer to see a SPD/Green government (versus 17 percent 
for a CDU/FDP coalition).  END COMMENT. 
 
¶8. (U) This message has been coordinated with Embassy Berlin. 
JOHNSON