VZCZCXRO9180
RR RUEHCD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
DE RUEHGD #0095/01 0582305
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 272305Z FEB 08
FM AMCONSUL GUADALAJARA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0602
INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
RUEHME/AMEMBASSY MEXICO 1810
RUEHGD/AMCONSUL GUADALAJARA 4651

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GUADALAJARA 000095 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAGR ETRD ECON MX
SUBJECT: HARVEST OF CHANGE:  CORN, NAFTA, AND THE CAMPO IN WESTERN 
MEXICO 
 
REF: Guadalajara 0031 
 
GUADALAJAR 00000095  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. Summary: The January 2008 full implementation of NAFTA's 
provisions on agricultural trade has proceeded smoothly in 
western Mexico's farm belt. Some observers had expected a strong 
negative reaction given the large percentage of the population 
still engaged in minimally productive subsistence farming 
(principally of corn and beans), but current high corn prices 
helped soften the impact. Instead, agricultural officials and 
many producer associations are focusing on the new opportunities 
presented by NAFTA. Change is coming to the "campo," but it is 
driven more by social forces such as growing urbanization, an 
exodus of young people from farming, and the increasing 
consolidation of agricultural production than by the treaty 
itself. End Summary. 
 
------------------------------------- 
CORN PRICE RISE CUSHIONS RURAL IMPACT 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. All sources agree that the single most important factor in 
easing rural concerns about NAFTA is the recent increase in the 
price of corn, which has doubled since this time last year. 
Although this increase has been unkind to consumers, as 
evidenced by the large protests in Mexico City in January of 
2007 over the price of tortillas, it has been a boon to 
producers in helping them to be more market-competitive at a 
critical moment.  Most analysts attribute this increase to 
higher US demand for corn for the production of ethanol. 
 
¶3. The price rise is especially welcome for farmers given the 
overall low productivity of most Mexican corn producers. In 
Mexico, one hectare of corn yields an average of 4.5 tons.  In 
the US, the same hectare yields 12 tons.  Mexican growers will 
face great difficulty expanding beyond their internal market 
until this yield is raised.  In fact, most producers continue to 
be subsistence operations. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
GOVERNMENT AID WELL INTENTIONED, BUT OFTEN MISDIRECTED 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶4. The Director of Jalisco's Special Commission on NAFTA 
contends that most producers are prepared for the NAFTA 
transition, due to federal efforts over the last decade.  While 
maintaining that systems for direct payments and technical 
assistance are in place and effective, he did admit that they 
are not having the full effect desired.  Although some have 
blamed this on corruption, he indicated that bureaucratic 
malaise was the true culprit.  Government payments continue to 
go out to the same recipients who were registered at the 
program's inception, regardless of whether these people are 
still working the same land or are even farming at all.  Many 
small-scale, marginal producers who would benefit from 
government aid are not receiving it because their payments are 
going to their landlords or the land's prior owners. 
 
¶5. Trade experts at the University of Guadalajara believe that 
the government has done an adequate job in preparing for full 
NAFTA implementation, but that the aid programs enacted suffer 
from a predictable bias in Mexico: too focused on "welfare" for 
very small subsistence farmers and not enough on promoting 
efficiency and competitiveness.  These analysts believe that the 
Ministry of Agriculture (known as SAGARPA) would have done 
better to ensure that aid was targeted towards mid-sized (20-50 
hectares) operations that have enough land to be viable but not 
enough to be fully competitive, on the grounds that large, 
efficient operations do not need help, and the subsistence 
operations are so inefficient that any aid to them would, in the 
long term, be wasted.  Consequently, the government is now 
scrambling to adjust its goals. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
NEW FOCUS ON TECHNOLOGY AND EFFICIENCY 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. The new director of SAGARPA's programs in Jalisco, Jose 
Munoz, is trying to refocus his agency on extension services 
that will expose producers to new equipment, procedures, and 
technologies to improve their productivity and competitiveness. 
Munoz is also emphasizing the importance of a public relations 
campaign touting the benefits of NAFTA for Mexican agriculture - 
something he admits SAGARPA should have done sooner and more 
effectively. This campaign is not just rhetoric; Minister of 
Agriculture Alberto Cardenas announced a 35 percent boost in 
federal aid for Jalisco's agriculture sector on February 18. 
Munoz also wants to work more closely with farmers, rather than 
going through the traditional rural and campesino organizations 
as was done in the past. (Some of these groups are reacting 
negatively to this threat to their customary power, as noted in 
reftel). Munoz does not conceal his admiration for the 
productivity and economies of scale of US agribusiness, and he 
 
GUADALAJAR 00000095  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
expects a similar consolidation of production to occur in 
Mexico. 
 
------------------- 
THE CORN CONUNDRUM 
------------------- 
 
¶7. In terms of long-term competitiveness for the Mexican corn 
sector, all sources agree that land use patterns and the 
resultant lack of access to capital are problems, for historical 
reasons dating back to the early 19th Century.  Many Mexican 
farmers continue planting the same crops because it requires too 
much capital to switch to something more profitable.  But land 
in Mexico is more expensive, relatively speaking, than in the 
US, and Mexican banks are also much more risk-averse in making 
farm loans.  Most importantly, land tenure is more minutely 
divided, so it is hard to line up large numbers of willing 
landholders to sell to an operation that would be able to 
achieve economies of scale. 
 
¶8. The Constitutionally-mandated system of communal farms 
(ejidos) was reformed in the early 1990s, but still creates 
substantial barriers to development, because any plan to sell or 
mortgage land must be approved by a majority of the communal 
landholders.  This serves as a further disincentive to expansion 
and investment that could create larger, more efficient 
operations that would be able to compete in the NAFTA market. 
 
-------------------------------- 
GENERATIONAL CHANGE ON THE FARM 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶9. SAGARPA officials believe one reason that so few have taken 
advantage of liberalizations in property laws is because more 
and more young people are choosing not to farm, opting instead 
to migrate to cities or the United States.  This skews the 
demographic on the farm towards older and more conservative 
farmers, who are less willing to embrace change or new ideas. 
The same goes for attempts to form more effective farm 
partnerships that could help to build economies of scale.  The 
end result, according to SAGARPA's Munoz, will be less domestic 
production of traditional crops - a wrenching development for a 
country where corn has been a key element of the culture for 
centuries. On the positive side, those producers who remain will 
be much more efficient and productive, and they will be joined 
by entrepreneurs exploiting more profitable segments of the 
agricultural sector, such as berries, winter vegetables, 
ornamental plants, and enhanced food processing. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶10. The changes occurring in agriculture in western Mexico's 
farm belt are far-reaching, and began long before the final 
implementation of NAFTA. Even if SAGARPA had done a better job 
of informing both farmers and the public about the implications 
of the treaty, it would have had little impact on the 
sociological and economic forces affecting the countryside. It 
is encouraging that local officials are focused on the benefits 
and opportunities presented by NAFTA in the agricultural sector, 
and post's Foreign Commercial Service (FCS) office is heavily 
promoting the sale of US farm equipment and technology, as well 
as visits to agricultural trade shows in the United States.  The 
real challenge for the authorities is to find meaningful work 
for those persons displaced by accelerating change in the 
countryside. 
RAMOTOWSKI