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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 FUKUOKA 000008 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
OSD/APSA FOR SHINN/SEDNEY/HILL/BASALLA 
USFJ FOR J00/J01/J3/J4/J5 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  2/28/2018 
TAGS: MARR PGOV PINR PREL JA
SUBJECT: THE NEW IWAKUNI MAYOR MUST NOW WALK A TIGHTROPE 
 
REF: 07 TOKYO 5680; TOKYO 00326 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: MARGOT CARRINGTON, PRINCIPAL OFFICER, CONSULATE 
FUKUOKA, DEPARTMENT OF STATE. 
REASON: 1.4 (b), (d) 
¶1.  (C) Summary:  Former ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) 
House of Representatives member Yoshihiko Fukuda, who defeated 
incumbent mayor Katsusuke Ihara by less than 2,000 votes in a 
February 10 election (reftel), is a pragmatist and shrewd 
politician, whose election was cheered by many involved in the 
DPRI process.  In a February 26 press conference, he announced 
his acceptance of the move of Carrier Air Wing Five (CVW-5) to 
Iwakuni, but must now walk a tightrope between allaying local 
concerns over the relocation and meeting the Japanese 
Government's expectations for a smooth transfer in this key 
piece of the DPRI puzzle.  Moreover, in the short term, he will 
be expected to deliver on campaign promises of economic 
revitalization for this depressed city, despite having few tools 
at his disposal to accomplish that. End Summary. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
New Mayor Hits the Ground Running 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) Mayor Fukuda hit the ground running and made getting a 
reinstatement of Japanese government subsidies a priority for 
his administration.  The subsidies had initially been held back 
by the central government due to the previous mayor's 
intransigence on accepting the move of CVW-5 to Iwakuni.  Within 
days of his inauguration, Fukuda had already gone to Tokyo to 
meet with Foreign Minister Komura and Defense Minister Ishiba. 
Ishiba made sure Fukuda did not go home empty handed by 
promising him that the "frozen" subsidies would soon be released. 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
Prides Himself on Being a "Player" in Tokyo 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) In a February 21 meeting with PO Carrington, Fukuda was 
quick to display his knowledge of security issues and 
credentials as a player in Tokyo, by stressing that he was well 
acquainted with officers of Embassy Tokyo's Political Military 
Affairs section.  He also mentioned his close relationship with 
former Foreign Minister Taro Aso.  He talked about serving on 
the security committee in the Diet and noted that he has visited 
Atsugi and Sasebo bases.  He added that he still hoped to visit 
the US as part of a Diet delegation in the future.  Finally, it 
was with no small amount of pride that he mentioned being 
another kind of player as well - - of softball that is.  In the 
first Diet vs. U.S. Embassy team softball game in 2006, Fukuda 
won the Ambassador's Most Valuable Player cup, which to him was 
clearly one of the highlights of his career thus far. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----------------- 
A (Rare) "Koizumi Kid" with a Political Future Beyond Iwakuni? 
--------------------------------------------- ----------------- 
 
¶4. (U) Fukuda began his foray into politics by working as a 
staff aide to former LDP lower house member Akira Fukida from 
Yamaguchi's 1st district.  He then served as an LDP assembly 
member in the Iwakuni Municipal Assembly and later in the 
Yamaguchi Prefectural Assembly.   He was nominated by the LDP's 
Yamaguchi chapter to run for the 2005 Lower House election, and 
defeated the DPJ's Hideo Hiraoka as one of the many young 
Koizumi Children riding on Prime Minister Koizumi's coattails 
that year. 
 
¶5.  (C) Fukuda is slated to serve the remainder of Ihara's term 
until April 2010.  Although there is nothing unusual about a 
Japanese male professional making an unaccompanied tour of duty, 
it is telling that Fukuda's family (which includes 3 children 
under age 6) will remain in Tokyo during his tour, with Fukuda 
returning on weekends as his schedule allows.  He appears to 
have seen an opportunity to buy himself goodwill with the LDP 
for taking on this challenge and will no doubt try to collect on 
that debt and move back into national politics in the not too 
 
FUKUOKA 00000008  002 OF 003 
 
 
distant future. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
Astute Politician Who Understands All Politics Are Local 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
¶6. (C) Fukuda is clearly mindful that the same electorate which 
handed him a slim victory remains opposed to the relocation.   A 
Yomiuri poll taken during the campaign revealed that 47% of 
Iwakuni citizens polled remained opposed to the relocation (an 
Asahi exit poll on Feb. 10 revealed the same result).  These 
numbers represent a significant drop, however, from the 87% of 
voters who had voted against the relocation in a March 2006 
referendum, and the 69% who elected Mayor Ihara on a vehemently 
anti-relocation platform a month later.   Reportedly, concerns 
about Iwakuni's economic future edged out opposition to 
relocation.  The city's economic debt is approximately $1 
billion. 
 
¶7. (C)  Fukuda reacted proactively when the recent arrest of an 
Okinawa-based U.S. marine suspected of rape was made public. 
(The incident, had it come a day or so earlier, might well have 
cost Fukuda the election.)  Once in office, Fukuda promptly 
spoke out against the incident and asked to see Col. O'Halloran, 
the Commander of Marine Corps Air Station (MCAS) Iwakuni.  The 
Deputy Commander, who received Fukuda in Col. O'Halloran's 
absence, reported being favorably impressed with Fukuda, who 
predictably was looking for assurances about public safety and 
tightening of discipline in light of the incident.   Fukuda 
surprised the Deputy Commander during the meeting, however, by 
also requesting that MCAS Iwakuni service members be instructed 
to obey traffic rules when driving about town.  Apparently, the 
numerous (by the Deputy Commander's own admission after he 
looked into it) traffic accidents and fender benders involving 
service members are a major irritant that base officials had not 
previously been aware of. 
 
------------------------------------------- 
Pledge that Noise Issue will be Addressed 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (U) Fukuda made some very public pledges during the election 
campaign that he would deal with the noise issue and negotiate 
with the Japanese government so that the burden on local 
citizens is not increased significantly as a result of the CVW-5 
move.   The ongoing runway relocation project, which will move 
the runway 1000 meters seaward, will significantly reduce those 
problems.   Fukuda has also argued, though, that the GOJ needs 
to more thoroughly brief the local community and ensure that 
there is adequate local understanding regarding the changes the 
relocation will bring.   Although not as well organized or 
litigious as Atsugi citizen groups, there has been increasing 
activism on this issue in Iwakuni, including the January 
inauguration of a residential group established to "protect the 
quiet surroundings of the inland sea."  On Feb. 26, the group 
submitted a petition to the mayor asking for a formal response 
by March 12 outlining the measures being taken to address the 
noise problem.   This type of activism is only likely to grow as 
relocation draws nearer. 
 
¶9. (C) In the February 21 meeting, Fukuda mentioned his 
understanding that it is customary for USFJ bases in Japan to 
try to refrain from flight operations after 10:00 pm, whereas 
Iwakuni allows them up until 11:00 pm.  Moreover, because of the 
lack of reported progress on identifying a permanent field 
carrier landing practice (FCLP) site, there also appears to be 
local rumors concerning the fact that MCAS Iwakuni is actually 
the planned site for these exercises, rather than the alternate 
site now being sought.   The head of the Iwakuni Chamber of 
Commerce  relayed a similar message to principal officer, basing 
his comments on a February 21 Chugoku Shinbun report of a 
"secret agreement" dating back to 1992, which reportedly 
 
FUKUOKA 00000008  003 OF 003 
 
 
identified Iwakuni as a future FCLP site.  Defense Bureau 
officials in Iwakuni seemed to be aware of this misinformation, 
but did not seem particularly anxious to set the record straight. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------------- 
Fukuda's Pragmatism Does not Reach Up Atago Mountain 
--------------------------------------------- --------------- 
 
¶10. (C) In the mayoral campaign, Fukuda wisely was reluctant to 
step into the mire that negotiations over Atago Mountain have 
become.  The site has been identified as the ideal location for 
the additional base housing the CVW-5 move will require.  It 
also represents a huge financial liability for the prefectural 
government that owns much of the land and is eager to sell it to 
the central government for this purpose.  However, Fukuda, like 
Ihara before him, also sees Atago as the ideal site for a new 
hospital, and would prefer that new base housing be located in 
areas immediately adjacent to the base that are most directly 
affected by jet noise.  These areas are now completely inhabited 
by Iwakuni citizens.   Fukuda had few answers as to how to bring 
about this massive "swap" of land and the concomitant relocation 
of citizens.  He did stress that it would be important for new 
base housing (regardless of where it is eventually located) to 
use space efficiently and not appear much larger than typical 
Japanese housing.  He mentioned having visited base housing at 
both Atsugi and Sasebo that he considered a possible model for 
how this might be done. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
Realization of New Commercial Airport is Key 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶11. (C) Both the head of the Chamber of Commerce and Fukuda 
mentioned that one of their top priorities is securing the $100 
million needed for the building of a new civilian airport that 
would share the new MCAS Iwakuni runway.  Clearly, Fukuda's 
"economic revitalization" plan depends on this new airport, 
which locals hope will handle four domestic flights a day 
between Iwakuni and Tokyo.  The plan under discussion involves 
the prefecture bearing two thirds of the costs and the city the 
remaining third. In reality, however, both the city and 
prefecture are looking to the GOJ to provide these funds and do 
not seem to have any other plan in place to fund this ambitious 
project.  Nor does there seem to be any concrete plans to bring 
about economic revitalization through means other than extending 
the tin cup towards Tokyo. 
 
---------- 
Comment: 
---------- 
 
¶12. (C) The outlook for relocation has brightened considerably 
with Fukuda's election.  The next few months are going to be 
critical for him as he tries to establish himself and ensure he 
has credibility with Iwakuni citizens, the prefecture and the 
central government.  If the late evening flight issue is one 
that MCAS Iwakuni can pledge to look into, it would hand Fukuda 
a "victory" at a critical time.  Moreover, it would be helpful 
if information on progress towards identification of the FCLP 
site were made public to counter the misinformation that seems 
to be contributing to local concerns about noise.  In sum, as he 
walks this tightrope, all efforts should be made to throw him a 
lifeline. 
CARRINGTON