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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 FEST TWO 000013 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
PARIS AND LONDON FOR AFRICA WATCHERS ; CAPETOWN FOR DAS SWAN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PREF PGOV PHUM SU CD
SUBJECT: NDJAMENA 005: CIVIL SOCIETY WARNS OF PRECARIOUS POLITICAL 
AND SECURITY SITUATION 
 
REF: NDJAMENA 001 
 
FEST TWO 00000013  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary.  In the aftermath of the February 2-3 "Battle 
of N'Djamena," Chadian civil society is expressing new levels of 
concern at the deteriorating human rights situation and the 
apparent single-minded determination of President Deby to 
proceed with a military solution to what they perceive to be a 
political crisis. In assuring the President military support 
without obtaining any concessions in return, they fear that the 
Government of France has given Deby free rein to indulge his 
most autocratic inclinations.  They hope for peace, but are not 
optimistic that peace will return soon.  While recognizing that 
the armed opposition brings no panacea, and in fact may ignite a 
new battle for succession, they still yearn for change -- any 
change.   The EAC will meet to discuss the highly unsettled 
political situation.  End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  Emboffs and the Ambassador met with members of civil 
society to discuss the current human rights situation and civil 
society perspectives on the political and security situation. 
Contacts included one of the few human rights activists 
remaining in country (the local representative of the League of 
Human Rights), the President of the business association 
Patronat, a leading lawyer active in defending the human rights 
community, two of Chad's most prominent businessmen, the only 
two members of the core group of the opposition coalition who 
are not in detention, hiding or exile and a banker with close 
family ties to President Deby. 
 
HUMAN RIGHTS CONCERNS - BUT WHO WILL BEAR WITNESS? 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Most of Chad's prominent human rights activists -- 
never many in number -- are in exile in France or biding their 
time in Cameroon.  With their departure, Chad has lost the 
individuals and organizations who normally take the lead in 
advocacy and reporting on human rights abuses and liaise with 
international human rights organizations.  As reported reftel, 
activists Delphine Djiraibe and Jacqueline Modeina sought French 
protection and are in Paris.  Daniel Passalet of the Chadian 
League of Human Rights informed the Embassy that he had left 
Chad for Cameroon.  The press is equally silenced.  To protest 
the censorship effective under the State of Emergency, the 
independent press has announced that they will suspend 
publication indefinitely.  FM Liberte, an independent radio 
station, had already been closed down by the government before 
the events of February 2-3.  Radio France International (RFI) 
and BBC World Service, two important sources of information for 
Chadians, are only available on short wave until repairs are 
made to their antenna (damaged in the fighting).  The only 
source of local information is the national radio (temporarily 
reporting via another radio station until its equipment is 
repaired) and the government mouthpiece newspaper "Le Progress." 
 The work permit of the local RFI correspondent, Sonia Roulay, 
has been suspended and RFI has no other reporters on the ground. 
 Roulay believes that the GOC responded to pressure from the 
French Government to suspend her permit as a result of French 
unhappiness with her reporting on the round-up of opposition 
leaders.  She thinks she may soon be expelled.  It is hard to 
understate the importance of RFI as a source of information on 
Chad and on events in the rest of the world. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) In the aftermath of the battle, and under the current 
State of Emergency, the Government of Chad appears to be casting 
a wide net to sweep up those individuals who might potentially 
have had contacts with the rebels or who would be, in the event 
of an Erdimi/Nouri victory, candidates for membership in a new 
transitional government.  The arrest of Lol Mahamat Choa, former 
President and widely regarded as a national figure with stature 
and respect sufficient to lead a transitional government is the 
best example.  Prominent Anakaza Gorans (the group to which 
Mahamat Nouri belongs) appear to be particularly targeted.  For 
example, well-known Goran businessman Mahamat Abassi (the 
landlord of some Embassy properties) was taken for questioning 
on February 20.   According to his sons, his name allegedly 
appeared on a list of members of a "welcome committee for the 
rebels."  Emboffs have also heard rumors of summary executions 
 
FEST TWO 00000013  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
in the palace, with bodies being dumped into the Chari and 
washing up in Guelfe (Cameroon). Human Rights Watch researcher 
David Buchbinder is in country investigating these and other 
reports.  On a more prosaic level, systematic sweeps of the 
popular quartiers - allegedly to find goods that had been looted 
-- are providing opportunities for poorly disciplined police and 
gendarmes to terrorize the population and help themselves to 
goods which they claim are looted.  The Governments announcement 
of an award (about $500) for information on wounded or hiding 
rebels is the talk of the town.  Ironically, according to the 
local population, the conduct of the rebels during the two day 
battle was pretty much above reproach in terms of discipline and 
respect for civilian populations. 
 
AFTERMATH OF THE BATTLE - THE POPULATION BEARS THE BRUNT 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶5. (SBU) The fact that President Deby "allowed" the battle to 
enter the capital is a source of great anger to N'djamena 
residents.  More than one contact has expressed outrage at the 
bombing of the Central Market by government helicopters which 
put many civilians at risk.  In their words:  "the President is 
using our oil money to buy helicopters to bomb his people.". 
The subsequent looting of much of the city has been cause for 
reflection.  Most can understand looting for economic reasons, 
but the general view is that the looting was also a statement of 
rage against the government and the elites.  "He has stolen for 
17 years; I am only stealing today" a white-bearded gentleman 
told a contact as he toted off a piece of furniture from a 
looted house.  Government official's houses were targeted.  The 
Minister of Health and the Prime Minister's houses were among 
those looted.  Looters sacked houses of relatives of the 
President, such as the Deputy Director of the BCC bank who is 
the President's son-in-law.   According to a prominent lawyer 
with contacts in the government, government ministers are asking 
themselves "if the government cannot even protect the houses of 
its Cabinet Ministers, who can it protect?"  The vandalizing and 
looting also suggested that if the people of N'Djamena one day 
chose to manifest themselves for a political cause, the 
government forces would be quickly overwhelmed.  While political 
demonstrations are practically unknown, one contact warned that 
if prominent political opposition leader Yorongar (current 
whereabouts unknown) were to be killed, the people of N'Djamena 
- and particularly the southerners who constitute his primary 
political base - would rise up in anger in a way not seen 
before. 
 
POLITICAL DIALOGUE - THE ONLY WAY AHEAD? 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
--------------- 
¶6.  (SBU)  Looking ahead, there is no disagreement among civil 
society contacts that a political solution is the only way 
forward.  A military solution cannot be found.  All concur that 
this is a matter that the President needs to resolve with his 
family members and his other close associates.  They have no 
love for the rebels, but see no sense in a "family argument" 
wrecking the painfully small gains in stability and development 
that Chad has been able to achieve over the past few years. 
Most contacts believe that the President urgently needs to 
signal to the country that there is a plan for transition.  The 
President could agree not to run again and hand-pick his 
successor (this individual might even have a good chance of 
winning in a free election.)  The goal may not be the 
individual, but simply change -- any change.  But contacts is 
also recognized that the President is totally intransigent on 
the question of stepping down.  In the face of his inability to 
move towards dialogue, contact after contact said that only 
international pressure - including from the United States - 
could bring a peaceful solution and spare the Chadians more war. 
 
FRENCH POSITION CRITICIZED 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) In this context, the French Government decision to 
announce its military support for President Deby has shocked 
many here, including opposition political party leaders Salibo 
 
FEST TWO 00000013  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
Garba and Jean Alingue .  They feel that it is inconceivable 
that the French could do this without insisting on some sort of 
preconditions, such as a ceasefire, an opening for discussions, 
or a public announcement that the President would not run again. 
 Their grave concern is that the President, having scored this 
diplomatic coup, may now act with complete impunity. Deby 
"watchers" say that the President, in the meantime, is "changed" 
"shocked," "in a state of distress," "overreacting" and visibly 
isolated in the Palace. 
 
ZAGHAWA CONCERNS 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) The concerns of the Zaghawa community represent a 
special case.  Members of the President's clan are concerned 
that the President is ruining their chances of continuing to 
enjoy the fruits of power and prestige.   Not only are they 
bearing the brunt of the battlefield losses, but they see 
President Deby heading down a path which will mean disaster for 
his country and for his clan.  A contact recounted his aged 
relative lamenting the fact that Chad always been used as a 
"rear-base" for the Zaghawa when times were tough in Sudan.  Now 
he was concerned that this zone of protection might be on the 
way out.   The targeting of Zaghawa residences during the 
looting was a harbinger of things to come; one commentator 
warned that a mini-genocide against the Zaghawa was not out of 
the question in the event that President Deby was overthrown. 
Those who ascribe much of Chad's problems to its Sudan 
adventures - an enterprise of interest to a tiny fraction of the 
population -- are concerned that the Kobe wing of the clan - 
represented by the JEM, and highly militarized - is in the 
ascendancy.  They believe that unless Chad is willing to 
decisively cease its involvement in Darfur matters, Sudan will 
continue to fan the flames of civil unrest in Chad. 
 
WHAT LIES AHEAD: RESUMPTION OF ATTACKS OR COUP D'ETAT? 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶9. (SBU)  It is commonly assumed that the rebels will seek to 
strike again.  How and where the French would step in to stop 
them is not known.  That the ANT will be useless in the face of 
a rebel threat is a given for most.  Between defections and 
outright complicity with the rebels it is believed they will not 
defend the President.  On the other hand, a coup d'etat is also 
seen as a highly plausible scenario given the unhappiness within 
the army and discontentment within the President's clan. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Embassy EAC met informally on February 21 to discuss 
Embassy preparedness for a resumption of rebel attacks or coup 
d'etat.  We will meet on February 22 to assess the local 
security situation  and approve next steps. 
NIGRO