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OO RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK RUEHROV
DE RUEHLB #0271/01 0501636
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 191636Z FEB 08
FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1071
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO PRIORITY 2251
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 1979

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000271 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER 
DEPT FOR NEA/ELA AND NEA/ARP 
DEPT PASS TO EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/15/2018 
TAGS: PREL PGOV LE SA
SUBJECT: LEBANON: SAUDI AMBASSADOR FEARS PLOT TO KILL 
SLEIMAN 
 
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. Michele J. Sison for 
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1. (C) The Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon claimed that Syria 
plans to allow the election of Michel Sleiman just before the 
Damascus Arab League summit, then assassinate him after the 
summit but before a new PM or cabinet is agreed.  The purpose 
would be to create multiple vacuums in Lebanese institutions. 
 He probed Charge about rumors that the USG had made a deal 
with Syria to go easy on the Special Tribunal in return for 
Syria allowing the assassination of Hizballah official Imad 
Mughniyeh.  He also claimed that Hizballah SYG Hassan 
Nasrallah had attended a meeting with Mughniyeh and Syrian 
and Iranian intelligence officials just before Mughniyeh was 
killed on February 12. End Summary. 
 
¶2. (C) Charge Sison, accompanied by DCM, met Saudi Ambassador 
Abdulaziz Khoja at his residence on February 15.  This was 
Charge's introductory call on Khoja, although she had phoned 
him a few days before seeking confirmation that Saudi Arabia 
would make a contribution to the Special Tribunal for 
Lebanon.  Khoja has served in Beirut for several years and is 
seen as well connected, particularly to the Hariri family. 
He noted the close working relationship he had with previous 
U.S. COMs in support of pro-democracy forces in Lebanon and 
against Syria and told Charge he was confident it would be 
the same with her. 
 
SYRIANS TO ALLOW PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION JUST BEFORE SUMMIT; 
MARCH 14 MUST RESIST 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
¶3. (C) Khoja quickly moved to the subject of the Lebanese 
presidential impasse and laid out a scenario about which he 
was seemingly convinced and very concerned.  He believes that 
Syria will instruct its Lebanese allies to finally allow the 
election of Michel Sleiman as president just before the 
Damascus summit of the Arab League in late March.  It will be 
timed so that Sleiman will be able to attend the Summit as 
Lebanon's president, but there will be no time for agreement 
on a new prime minister and formation of a cabinet.  With the 
Lebanese presidential impasse resolved, other senior Arab 
leaders such as Mubarak and King Abdallah will go to 
Damascus, sparing Syria any embarrassment over the Summit. 
Soon after Sleiman's return to Beirut, he will be 
assassinated, before there is any action on a new PM or 
cabinet.  The result will be multiple vacuums that Syria 
seeks.  The presidency will be empty.  Saad Hariri will not 
be PM and Fouad Siniora's influence as PM will be greatly 
reduced since he will be a caretaker following the election 
of a new president.  Cabinet the same.  No functioning 
parliament -- and perhaps no LAF commander if Sleiman is not 
officially replaced quickly. 
 
¶4. (C) The solution to this, Khoja said, is that the 
pro-government March 14 bloc must decide that if there is no 
agreement on election of a president by the next scheduled 
session of parliament on February 26, it will not agree to an 
election until after the Damascus summit.  "I told Saad" 
this, Khoja said, urging that Charge give the same message to 
majority leader Saad Hariri.  Khoja did not provide evidence 
to support his belief that this scenario was truly Syria's 
plan. 
 
DRAMATIC THEORIES ON MUGHNIYEH ASSASSINATION 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) Hizballah suspects that Syria was behind the killing 
of Hizballah official Imad Mughniyeh the night of February 12 
in Damascus, Khoja asserted.  He noted that no Syrian 
officials attended Mughniyeh's funeral in Beirut on February 
14 and claimed that the Iranian FM, who did attend the 
funeral, had come to calm down Hizballah and keep it from 
taking action against Syria. 
 
¶6. (C) Making another dramatic claim, Khoja claimed that 
Hizballah SYG Hassan Nasrallah was at the meeting with Syrian 
intelligence officials in Damascus that some say Mughniya 
attended just before he was killed, along with Iranian 
intelligence officials.  Khoja offered no proof to back up 
either of his claims related to the Mughniya killing. 
 
WAS THE U.S. BEHIND IT? 
----------------------- 
 
¶7. (C) Khoja said many in Saudi Arabia have raised questions 
about why Mughniya was killed, particularly about possible 
Syrian deals with the U.S. or Israel.   He cited a rumor that 
he said has currency in Beirut that the U.S. made a deal with 
Syria to pull back on the Special Tribunal in return for the 
Syrians allowing the U.S. to get Mughniya.  Another rumor, 
Khoja said, was that Syria and Israel had made a deal to 
allow  Mughniya to be killed, an Israeli objective. 
(Comment. Rumors about Syrian-Israeli cooperation on a wide 
range of issues are a staple of the Beirut political rumor 
mill.  End comment.) 
 
UNIFIL AND TRIBUNAL 
------------------- 
 
¶8. (C) Khoja also expressed concern about a new 
Hizballah-Israeli war in Lebanon.  He cited Qatar's recent 
announcement it would withdraw troops from UNIFIL as a sign 
that the Qataris were tipped off that something is coming. 
 
¶9. (C) Charge noted Saudi Arabia's contribution to the 
Special Tribunal for Lebanon, confirmed the day before, and 
asked about the status of donations from other Gulf nations. 
Khoja replied confidently that "they will pay" following 
Saudi Arabia's lead. 
 
SISON