VZCZCXRO8413
PP RUEHAG RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK RUEHROV
DE RUEHLB #0237/01 0451656
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P 141656Z FEB 08
FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1008
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 2226
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 000237 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR ABRAMS/SINGH/YERGER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/14/2018 
TAGS: PGOV PREL IS KPAL LE
SUBJECT: LEBANON: THEORIES ABOUT MUGHNIEH'S ASSASSINATION 
 
REF: TD 314-011416-08 
 
Classified By: DCM William Grant for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
SUMMARY 
-------- 
 
¶1. (C)  Two days after the February 12 Damascus car bomb 
attack that killed senior Hizballah commander Imad Mughnieh, 
theories abound in Beirut on who was behind the assassination 
and why.  The timing of the killing also cannot be ignored, 
occurring just two days before the third anniversary of the 
assassination of former PM Rafiq Hariri and a March 14 
commemorative rally in downtown Beirut.  With tensions in 
Lebanon already high -- and both sides hardening their 
positions -- due to the ongoing political impasse, many 
Lebanese are predicting that Lebanon will pay the price for 
Mughnieh's death. 
 
¶2. (C)  The assassination of a figure who was an icon for the 
Lebanese Shia resistance, but one of the U.S.' and Israel's 
most sought after terrorist fugitives, raises questions about 
who wanted Mughnieh dead now, and why.  While most regional 
finger pointing is directed at Israel, with the U.S. coming a 
close second, several local political and intelligence 
sources believe the Syrian regime had good reasons to rid 
itself of Mughnieh. 
 
¶3.  (C)  As the Hizballah controlled southern suburbs of 
Beirut are in deep mourning for the  February 14 burial of 
one of their own, reaction from members of the pro-government 
March 14 bloc ranges from private satisfaction  to the sober 
condolence statement issued by Future Movement leader Saad 
Hariri.  However, the possibility that March 14 could have 
been involved has also surfaced in the rumor mill.  There is 
widespread concern that retaliation will not be good for 
Lebanon.  End summary. 
 
CONCURRENT MAJORITY AND 
OPPOSITION MEMORIALS 
----------------------- 
 
¶4. (C)  On a dreary and wet February 14 afternoon Hizballah 
buried its hero, Imad Mughnieh, in a mass funeral service 
that included speeches by Hizballah SYG Hassan Nasrallah and 
Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki.  A few hours 
earlier, and just a short drive from Mughnieh's funeral, the 
pro-government March 14 bloc held a mass rally in Martyrs' 
Square commemorating the third anniversary of the 
assassination of former PM Rafiq Hariri.  The mass gathering 
of March 14 supporters (claims of attendance ranged from 
100,000 to a million supporters) was an attempt to 
re-energize the majority's base and regain the political 
initiative against the opposition.  Nasrallah vowed "open 
war" with the "Zionists," pledging to carry out operations 
against Israel outside of Lebanon in retaliation for 
Mughnieh's death.  The speechmaking at the peaceful March 14 
rally focused on the need for Lebanese "consensus and 
agreement," and the immediate election of a president.  Among 
the many speakers, only Druse leader Walid Jumblatt came out 
tough on Syria and its opposition allies, vowing that Lebanon 
will not be "handed to Damascus or to the black 
Syrian-Iranian world." 
 
MARCH 14'S PUBLIC CONDEMNATION: 
MORE THAN CROCODILE TEARS? 
------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (C)  On February 13, March 14 leader MP Saad Hariri 
publicly denounced Mughnieh's assassination and offered his 
condolences to Hizballah SYG Hassan Nasrallah.  In an LBCI 
television interview the same day, Hariri agreed with 
Hizballah's accusation that Israel was behind the killing. 
However, Hariri also hinted at a Syrian role when he noted 
that Mughnieh was killed in Damascus, near an Iranian school, 
and in an area controlled by Syrian intelligence. 
 
¶6.  (C)  The day of the assassination. March 14 SYG Fares 
Suaid spoke of Mughnieh's death as though it were a lesson 
for Hizballah.  Namely, Hizballah should realize that its 
only protector and guarantor is the Lebanese state and the 
Lebanese army and not/not the Syrian security apparatus and 
its arsenal. 
 
¶7.  (C)  Meanwhile Druse leader and March 14 member Walid 
Jumblatt, believes that either the Israelis, for obvious 
reasons, or the Syrians, for reasons unknown, eliminated 
Mughnieh. In any case, Jumblatt, candid as usual, called 
Mughnieh's death "good news." 
 
¶8.  (C)  A number of majority politicians, including former 
Lebanese Ambassador to the U.S. Simon Karam and National 
Liberal Party leader Dory Chamoun, believe Syria liquidated 
Mughnieh as a "gift to the Americans."  Both hoped that the 
deal will not turn out to be at Lebanon's expense. 
 
¶9.  (C)  Minister of the Interior Hassan Sabaa told 
Ambassador that he was relieved that Mughnieh was not killed 
on Lebanese soil, otherwise March 14 would have been accused 
of conspiring with Israel against Hizballah.  Sabaa, 
undecided as to the identity of the perpetrator, commented it 
could be Syria wanting to send a message to Hizballah or to 
the U.S., or even the result of a split within Hizballah. 
He, too, expressed concern that Lebanon could pay a price in 
case the message was directed to the U.S. as reminder that 
the U.S should deal with Syria over the presidential election 
and Hizballah. 
 
¶10.  (C)  Another theory in the Beirut rumor mill has it that 
the Saudis and the Hariri family collaborated with Syrian 
Sunni jihadis to deal a blow to the opposition and their 
allies Syria and Iran.  This idea is based on previous 
allegations that Saad Hariri and Saudi Arabia were involved 
in arming Sunni militants in an effort to counter Hizballah. 
 
ISF OFFICIALS SEE BASHAR'S HAND 
------------------------------- 
 
¶11. (S/NF) Mid-level officials from Lebanese Internal 
Security Forces (ISF) told emboffs they believe Syrian forces 
affiliated with President Bashar al-Asad may be responsible 
for the assassination in an effort to force a compromise in 
the ongoing political impasse by lessening pressure on Syria 
(Ref A).  The officials further speculated that the attack 
would be a severe blow to Hizballah, leading to extensive 
confusion and lack of cohesion.  They attribute their 
assessment to alleged tension between al-Asad and his 
military intelligence chief Asef Shawkat resulting from a 
disagreement between the spouses of the two men.  The ISF 
officials further noted that al-Asad was becoming 
increasingly independent, sidelining 
previously trusted advisors such as Shawkat. 
 
SOME OPPOSITION OBSERVERS 
DOUBT ISRAELI "GUILT" 
------------------------- 
 
¶12.  (C)  While most observers in the Lebanese opposition 
rallied behind Hizballah's accusation against Israel, 
Aoun-bloc MP Ghassan Mokheiber noted privately to emboffs 
that it was bizarre that Mughnieh was killed after stepping 
out of a Syrian intelligence office, adding that Mughnieh's 
death represented a big challenge for Hizballah.  Mokheiber 
commented that the days ahead would probably reveal the 
nature of a possible "deal" made. 
SISON