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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 YAOUNDE 000009 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/02/2018 
TAGS: CM PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: CAMEROON'S PRESIDENT BIYA SIGNALS CONSTITUTIONAL 
CHANGE IN NEW YEAR'S SPEECH 
 
REF: A. A) 07YAOUNDE 1308 
     ¶B. B) 07YAOUNDE 1479 
     ¶C. C) 07YAOUNDE 1496 
 
Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Scott Ticknor for reasons 1.4 d and e. 
 
¶1. (C)  Summary:  In a dramatic December 31 New Year's 
Message, Cameroonian President Paul Biya stated he would 
"reconsider" term limits in the constitution.  He saw 2007 as 
a transition year toward a higher growth path with improved 
living conditions.  He discussed three priorities for 2008: 
reviving economic growth, raising living standards, and 
fighting corruption.  He saw slow progress toward 
democratization, noting some gaps in the creation of 
democratic institutions like the Senate.  In highly political 
moves, he expressed support for the army, opened the door to 
public sector salary increases, and took a strong stance on 
electricity problems and corruption.  This was a very 
important speech which requires us to recalibrate our 
approach to pressuring Biya on the constitutional change 
issue.  End summary. 
 
---------------- 
Bakassi Killings 
---------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) Biya began by expressing sympathy to the families of 
21 soldiers killed in the recent attack in Bakassi.  He 
stressed the need to "get to the bottom of what transpired at 
Bakassi,"  assuring Cameroonians that investigations are 
under way in Nigeria and Cameroon, and that "the Nigerian 
authorities have assured us that they had no responsibility 
in this tragedy."  He added that "precautions have been taken 
to ensure that this tragedy does not repeat itself.  The 
nation can count on its army." 
 
--------------- 
2007 Highlights 
--------------- 
 
¶3.  (U)  Biya depicted 2007 as "in a way, a transition year" 
between a period of consolidating institutions and 
rehabilitating public finances and one of economic growth and 
improving living conditions.  He highlighted what he saw as 
achievements in improving the management of the state budget, 
investing in social sectors and infrastructure, and taking 
measures "to combat price hikes" through fighting 
speculation, removing some taxes and liberalizing imports. 
 
¶4.  (U)  He emphasized as "my main concern for nearly twenty 
years...to move our institutions towards a modern democracy," 
concluding that "little by little we are making progress." 
He stressed the importance of recent laws on decentralization 
and noted the need to create the Senate and Constitutional 
Council.  He praised what he saw as the "peace and 
transparency" of the July and September legislative 
elections, conceding the need to continue to improve the 
electoral system. 
 
---------------------------- 
On Revising the Constitution 
---------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (U)   He had this to say about changing the constitution: 
 
"Still concerning the functioning of our institutions, I 
cannot fail to mention a problem that was raised by 
journalists during my recent stay in Paris and which, I am 
aware, has been the subject of much speculation in Cameroon 
for several months now.  I am referring to the possible 
revision of our constitution and particularly Article 6, 
Paragraph 2, which provides that "the President of the 
Republic shall be elected for a term of office of seven years 
renewable once." 
 
Even though the next residential election is only due in 
¶2011. it is normal and even encouraging that Cameroonians 
take an interest in this issue since it concerns the future 
of their institutions.  Many calls in favor of a revision are 
reaching me from all our provinces.  I am obviously not 
indifferent to them. 
 
In fact, there are arguments for a revision, particularly 
Article 6 which indeed imposes a limitation of the people's 
will, a limitation which is out of tune with the very idea of 
 
YAOUNDE 00000009  002 OF 004 
 
 
democratic choice. 
 
I want to add that in itself a constitutional revision is 
nothing unusual.  Our present Constitution (which is itself 
an outcome of a revision of our Constitution of 1972) 
contains revision procedures which enable, if necessary, an 
adjustment of the text to changes in our political society. 
Moreover, the procedures are of a general nature and do not 
concern anybody in particular. 
 
We are therefore going to reconsider, in this spirit, those 
provisions of our Constitution which would need to be 
harmonized with recent developments in our democratic system 
so as to meet the expectations of the vast majority of our 
population." 
 
-------------------- 
The Three Priorities 
-------------------- 
 
¶6.  (U) Biya cited three priorities for the coming year: 
 
-- Reviving Economic Growth:  Biya stressed the need for 
economic growth, forecasting 4.5% growth in 2008, up from 
4.1% in 2007.  He urged the faster launching of major 
agricultural and industrial projects.  He went on to address 
problems of energy supply, particularly electricity, saying 
"I therefore demand that action be taken, that decisions be 
made, that commitments be honored and that, in case of 
failure, conclusions be drawn."  He extolled the benefits of 
bio-fuel production and the importance of undertaking major 
projects in the mining sector. 
 
--Raising the Standard of Living:  Biya cited the need to 
"raise the standard of living and improve the livelihood of 
our people".  He advocated improving the purchasing power of 
the Cameroonian people and seeing "in the coming months, to 
what extent budget wedges can allow us to envisage the 
gradual rising of remuneration in the public service."  He 
stressed the importance of modernizing and professionalizing 
the education system and promised to "instruct the government 
to provide dialysis equipment and scanners to provincial 
hospitals which lack them".  He called for better medical 
assistance mechanisms,  improved access to drinking water, 
and better housing and roads. 
 
--The Fight Against Corruption:  Biya prioritized the need to 
fight corruption, the "most dreadful of the scourges" 
impeding progress.   He gave assures that the fight "will not 
be limited to a few symbolic cases" and that his government 
would "continue to track it down wherever it is and impose 
sanctions accordingly." 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶7.  (C)  Biya's remarks about decentralization, economic 
growth, corruption and education hold little that is new. 
However, Biya sent several important political signals in the 
speech.  His statement about the country's electricity 
problems was surprisingly strong, possibly just responding to 
general frustrations about power problems but possibly also 
signaling possible action against power provider (and U.S. 
company) AES/Sonel if electricity problems do not improve. 
The Bakassi incident has sowed some discontent in the 
military and Biya's speech appears aimed to show support for 
the army.  Biya's comments on public sector salary increases 
are more definitive than they have been in the past and will 
resonate among civil servants who in the past year have gone 
on strike because of salary demands. 
 
¶8.  (C)  Most importantly, with this speech, Biya has 
signaled a clear intention to change the term limits in the 
constitution.  The government-run Cameroon Tribune's January 
2 editorial emphasized this sense of closure, stating that 
the President "finally drew the line on the ground.  It is an 
answer expected to seal the door of speculation and send the 
legislators to work.  With this final conclusion to an 
intense debate, the nation can move forward to tackle the 
many other tasks awaiting us in the months ahead."  Some of 
our contacts believe the President may move to amend the 
constitution in the next parliamentary session, in March 
¶2008.  We will monitor the reactions to Biya's speech over 
the coming week.  Several opposition leaders and activists 
 
YAOUNDE 00000009  003 OF 004 
 
 
have criticized the speech and we expect this speech will 
harden cynicism, but we would be surprised to see a strong 
backlash. 
 
¶9.  (C)  As reported ref A, in his October 30 France24 
interview in Paris, Biya deflected the question of 
constitutional change.  However, as reported ref B, almost 
immediately after the President returned from France there 
has been a steady, orchestrated drum beat to change the 
constitutional term limit, allowing Biya to continue on after 
2011, when he is due to step down.  Like most Cameroonian 
observers, we were not surprised about the direction Biya was 
going but we were surprised by how fast -- only two months 
after his Paris interview -- he has laid his plans.  End 
comment. 
 
-------------- 
Our Next Steps 
-------------- 
 
¶10.  (C)  Many Cameroonians will now be looking to the United 
States for how we will react to this latest development. 
Ambassador expects the media will soon ask her for a 
reaction.  We propose a four-prong strategy: 
 
First, Press Remarks:  In light of Biya's speech, post plans 
to modify our ref B press guidance to read: 
 
-- The decision on whether to amend the Constitution should 
be for the people and the political process of Cameroon to 
decide.  Constitutional change requires serious deliberation 
and should reflect the input of all elements of society. 
Constitutional reform must aim to be for the benefit of 
society a a whole and one should carefully weigh the long 
term implications of any proposed change. 
 
--  In principle, every political system stands to benefit 
from new leadership and the new ideas it brings.  In our 
view, term limits and leadership change, at least every 
decade or so, are healthy ways to ensure democratic renewal. 
 
--  I know that democracy is a process and it takes a lot of 
work.  It involves building transparent and accountable 
institutions.  It requires good governance and a robust civil 
society.  Free and fair elections are essential.  As 
Secretary Rice recently said about Africa, "we have seen a 
 
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democratic transformation sweep the continent and we have 
observed many heads of state leaving office voluntarily".  I 
hope that Cameroon will stay on course to be part of this 
transformation. 
 
--  I agreed with President Biya in his statement in France 
only two months ago that public attention is best focused on 
more pressing concerns than constitutional reform, such as 
the fight against corruption, poverty and HIV/AIDS.  I 
continue to think that is the right focus for Cameroon and is 
essential to generating economic growth, strengthening 
democracy and improving the lives of all Cameroonians. 
 
Second, Private Discussions:  we recommend the Ambassador 
raise our concerns about this speech privately (and more 
pointedly) with the President.  This might be done as part of 
(or on the margins of) the planned February meeting of 
AFRICOM Commander General Ward with President Biya. A 
subsequent phone call from a Department principal would help 
reinforce the message. Ambassador will also seek appointments 
in the next few weeks with President Biya's close advisors. 
 
Third, Diplomatic Outreach:  we will reach out to our 
diplomatic colleagues in Yaounde, especially the British, 
Canadians, Dutch, and French to gauge their approach and 
response.  We will also reach out to contacts in civil 
society and the opposition.  We will report regularly on 
these outreach efforts and hope that they help us identify 
other possible sources of influence on Biya's thinking. 
 
Fourth, Public Remarks:  Ambassador plans to give a "change" 
speech in the next few weeks, focused on the benefits of 
democratic change, the need to prepare for greater political 
openness, and identifying democratic institutions (such as 
ELECAM and CONAC) that will help Cameroon along this path. 
 
 
 
 
 
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GARVEY