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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 YAOUNDE 000033 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/C 
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA ACTION OFFICER 
EUCOM FOR J5-1 AND POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/10/2018 
TAGS: CM PGOV PHUM PREL
SUBJECT: CAMEROON: CONSTITUTIONAL ISSUE HEATS UP 
 
REF: A. YAOUNDE 009 
 
     ¶B. 07 YAOUNDE 1478 
     ¶C. 07 YAOUNDE 1476 (NOTAL) 
 
Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Scott Ticknor for reasons 1.4 b and d 
 
¶1. (C) Summary:  President Paul Biya's New Year's speech, in 
which he announced his intention to "reconsider" changing the 
constitution, particularly presidential term limits (ref A), 
has sent shock waves throughout Cameroon.  The private media, 
many civil society activists, and some opposition figures 
have been highly critical, though their influence remains 
weak.  The main opposition SDF party led a small 
demonstration in Douala.  On January 10, a prominent human 
rights activist was interrogated by police for voicing 
opposition.  There are opponents of term limit change within 
the ruling CPDM party, though they are timid and unlikely to 
press the issue.  It is likely the President will move ahead 
with changing the term limits in the constitution, possibly 
in March.  However, the broader political context -- a more 
aggressive anti-corruption campaign, rumblings of a Cabinet 
shuffle, Biya's famous unpredictability, and ambivalence 
among some in the diplomatic community -- complicate 
forecasts and our future efforts to walk Biya back on the 
term limit issue.  End Summary. 
 
 
Civil Society's Reaction 
------------------------ 
 
¶2. (C) President Biya's remarks about constitutional change 
in his New Year's address continue to dominate media 
attention.  The private press has been highly critical of 
constitutional change, which is almost universally seen as an 
attempt by Biya to stay in office after his current term 
expires in 2011.  Some NGO activists have also been outspoken 
against changing term limits and pushing for a referendum. 
Hilaire Kamga, a prominent civil society leader, told poloff 
that civil society NGOs would work with opposition parties 
(and, covertly, with some CPDM parliamentarians) to combat a 
constitutional amendment.  If a constitutional change becomes 
unstoppable, they will argue that any constitutional change 
must be done through a referendum, he said.  One NGO has 
reportedly begun a signature campaign opposing constitutional 
change.  According to press reports, some Cameroonian 
diaspora groups in the U.S. and Europe have also mobilized 
against constitutional change. 
 
 
Opposition Party Voices 
----------------------- 
 
¶3. (U)  On January 6, 200 members of the opposition Social 
Democratic Front (SDF) Provincial Executive Committee held an 
impromptu march in Douala holding signs that said, "Biya Must 
Leave in 2011."  The organizers predicted that within two 
weeks there would be a much larger demonstration.  SDF 
Secretary General Elizabeth Tamajong said "every Cameroonian 
 
SIPDIS 
who cares about the well-being of this country should join 
us."  According to press reports, SDF leader John Fru Ndi 
stated: "I am calling on all civil servants and all 
Cameroonians to stand up and resist this attempt at a 
constitutional revision." 
 
¶4.  (SBU)  Bernard Muna, President of the Alliance of 
Progressive Forces (AFP) party, publicly stated that the AFP 
opposed a constitutional amendment.  He elaborated that there 
were many items in the constitution that have not been 
implemented; therefore, the President should focus on 
implementation, not amendment.  Samuel Mack Kit, leading a 
faction of the Union de Population de Cameroon (UPC), 
denounced the President's New Year comments as "a declaration 
of war against all the people."  Dr. Pierre Ngayap, Secretary 
General of the National Union for Democracy and Progress 
(UNDP), told Poloff the party has yet to decide whether it 
supports a constitutional amendment, though he conceded the 
majority of its members oppose it. 
 
 
Voices Within the CPDM 
 
YAOUNDE 00000033  002 OF 004 
 
 
----------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) Neither President Biya nor the ruling CPDM have made 
official statements about constitutional change since Biya's 
New Year's address.  Some CPDM stalwarts have voiced motions 
of support for removing presidential term limits.  Some 
(probably most) in the CPDM argue for broad constitutional 
changes, including an amendment to term limits (Article 6.2), 
while others in the party believe Article 6.2 should be left 
untouched in any discussion of broader amendments. 
Privately, there are notable voices of dissent.  Outspoken 
member of the CPDM Central Committee Charles Ateba Eyene told 
us there was a sharp division in the party between the older 
and the younger generation.  He said the majority of the CPDM 
Central Committee members oppose amending Section 6.2; 
however, they did not have the courage to voice their 
opposition. 
 
¶6. (C)  CPDM Parliamentarian and Vice President of the 
National Assembly Rose Abunaw told poloff she and many other 
CPDM Parliamentarians disagree with the amendment, but for 
the sake of party discipline and to retain their lives and 
jobs, they would vote for an amendment if the President sends 
such a bill to the National Assembly.  She opined that if the 
voting process were secret, the amendment would not pass; 
however, she said that Article 53 of the Standing Orders of 
the National Assembly requires all votes for a constitutional 
amendment to be done through an open ballot. She expected the 
proposed amendment would be sent to the Assembly in March 
2008 and would pass without difficulty.  A prominent 
government journalist (and CPDM member) also confirmed to 
Pol/Econ Chief that many in the party are uncomfortable with 
changing the term limit, especially without consulting the 
grass roots, but that party discipline will prevail in 
support of Biya.  He had also no doubt the President would 
pursue a term limit change in the near future. 
 
 
Diplomatic Perspectives 
----------------------- 
 
¶7. (C)  We have begun sounding out our diplomatic colleagues 
on the constitutional issue and will have more discussions in 
the coming weeks.  None of our diplomatic colleagues have yet 
made public statements or, to our knowledge, engaged the GRC 
about the constitutional debate. 
 
-- France:  Phillipe Truquet, French DCM to Cameroon, told 
Pol/Econ Chief that France sees the ongoing debate about 
changing the constitution as an internal affair for 
Cameroonians to decide.  France will not make statements or 
press Biya on the term limit issue, he said, although he 
conceded that France was also surprised and displeased by the 
timing of Biya's New Year's announcement about constitutional 
change.  Biya should focus on economic growth and reducing 
poverty at this time, not on constitutional change, 
especially given rising economic frustrations, Truquet 
opined.  He could only envision Paris weighing in on the term 
limit issue if the political debate about the constitution 
generated significant opposition to a level which threatened 
internal stability.  Truquet's advice to others in the 
international community was: wait to see what Biya does with 
constitutional change before making any intervention. 
 
-- Netherlands:  Dutch Ambassador Norbert Braakhuis told 
Ambassador the constitutional issue was "a smoke screen." 
Biya wants to burnish his reputation in his later years, he 
opined.  By creating the impression he will run again, Biya 
is guarding against any impression he is a lame duck and 
strengthening his hand to clean out dead wood in his Cabinet, 
tackle corruption and improve the economy, Braakhuis said, 
adding that Biya knows he faces little opposition but wants 
to give people more of a reason to vote for him if he were to 
run again.  Braakhuis told Pol/Econ Chief separately that the 
Dutch government would have difficulty objecting to changing 
the term limit because the Netherlands has a monarchy and a 
Prime Minister with no term limits.  He thought other 
European governments would have a similar difficulty taking a 
stand on this issue. 
 
 
YAOUNDE 00000033  003 OF 004 
 
 
--  The United Kingdom:  The usually outspoken UK High 
Commissioner is out of the country, but UKHC poloff told us 
the British Government was still formulating a position, 
taking as precedent the UK's position in Nigeria.  At the 
moment, the UK's approach is likely to be a public call for 
an inclusive and transparent debate of the merits of 
constitutional change and "private" appeals to President Biya 
to "consider his legacy," i.e., to gently encourage Biya to 
step back from any constitutional adventures.  UKHC poloff 
anticipated that the High Commission would want to revisit 
this stance and possibly adjust it to be more 
forward-leaning, an approach that he thought would be more 
likely if the USG and "perhaps one other EU country" would be 
seen to be similarly inclined.  UKHC poloff assessed that the 
German Embassy would be the most likely among other EU 
missions to stake out such a public position. (We will sound 
out the Germans here in the coming week.) 
 
 
Increasingly Complex Political Context 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (C)  The constitutional debate is taking place amidst 
signs of heightened political infighting and uncertainty. 
Some of our CPDM contacts told us the President would now 
accelerate his anti-corruption campaign to appease the 
critics of his efforts to change the constitution.  We have 
seen several recent major anti-corruption convictions (ref 
C).  Possibly part of such an effort was a leaked document, 
extensively covered in the January 9 media, detailing the 
Minister of Justice's efforts to crack down on a list of 
senior officials implicated in corruption (which we will 
report septel).  At the least, this now-public list will 
increase tensions within the Cabinet.  Rumors are also 
swirling of another imminent Cabinet shuffle, possibly 
replacing the Prime Minister and President of the National 
Assembly, establishing the long-awaited Senate, and creating 
a Vice Presidential post.  In addition, we have heard the 
President is making a list of those in his Cabinet and inner 
circle supporting his move for constitutional change.  Many 
media pundits and political contacts see the current 
maneuvering as a prelude to the President not only amending 
the constitution during the next parliamentary session in 
March, but changing the mandate of the President from a seven 
to a five year term and calling (and running in) fresh 
elections in 2009. 
 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶9.  (C)  The SDF demonstration and public opposition to 
constitutional change has been limited.  However, in a 
worrying development designed to intimidate the opposition, 
security forces on January 10 interrogated civil society 
activist Hilaire Kamga (para 2) for two hours about his vocal 
stand on the constitutional issue and his relations with 
political parties and diplomats.  In response, on January 11, 
prominent human rights activist and President of the 
Independent Commission Against Discrimination and Corruption 
Jean Claude Shanda Tonme issued a communique strongly 
condemning the interrogation of Kamga as "fascist", 
criticizing constitutional change, warning "those who want to 
plunge the country in civil war", and reminding Cameroonians 
to "learn the lessons from the situation in Kenya".  The 
Kamga incident could galvanize more opposition reaction. 
 
¶10.  (C)  Some of our contacts believe the frustrations 
following the New Year speech have reached a new height.  One 
long-time observer of Cameroon told Pol/Econ Chief this is 
the first time since the 1990-92 violence that he is worried 
about serious social unrest.  French DCM Truquet, who has 
been here for almost three years, echoed similar concerns of 
deep public discontent exacerbated by growing economic 
hardships.  In the current complex, more strained political 
and social context, our efforts -- publicly and privately -- 
to push back on amending the constitution will be difficult 
and could carry major weight in the current internal 
political dynamics.  It will also, we believe, be welcomed by 
a large number of Cameroonians. 
 
YAOUNDE 00000033  004 OF 004 
 
 
GARVEY