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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 STATE 001514 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON ENIV ENRG KGHG PREL JA KS
SUBJECT: U.S.-JAPAN-KOREA POLICY PLANNING TALKS - WELCOME 
DINNER AND MORNING SESSION 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  Policy Planning Director David Gordon 
opened United States-Japan-Korea Policy Planning Talks by 
hosting Japanese Deputy Vice Minister for Foreign Policy 
Chikao Kawai, and Korean Deputy Foreign Minister In-kook Park 
for a working dinner December 16, during which they exchanged 
views on the effects of domestic politics on diplomacy in the 
coming year.  In the December 17 morning session, Director 
Gordon, DVM Kawai, and DFM Park led discussions on climate 
change, energy security, Afghanistan, and the emerging 
economies of Brazil, Russia, India, and China.  The working 
lunch and afternoon session are reported septel.  End 
Summary. 
 
---------------------------- 
Effects of Domestic Politics 
---------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Japanese Deputy Vice Foreign Minister Kawai and 
Korean Deputy Foreign Minister Park predicted continuity in 
their countries' foreign policies in the coming year despite 
new or upcoming executive changes in both Japan and Korea. 
The alliance of each country with the U.S. remained central 
to foreign policy, but the electorates in both nations would 
be concerned largely with domestic issues.  Kawai explained 
that with the Upper House of the Diet controlled by 
opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), the Liberal 
Democratic Party (LDP) would have difficulty passing 
legislation, including Indian Ocean refueling operation for 
coalition forces engaged in Afghanistan.  Speculation remains 
rife that Prime Minister Fukuda will call elections some time 
in 2008 ) and Kawai noted that the last four times Japan 
hosted a G7/G8 meeting, the ruling party has called a general 
election.  Elections could come in February after a Diet vote 
on refueling, in April or May after passing the budget, or in 
July after the G8 leaders, meeting.  "Instead of policy, we 
now have politics," Kawai lamented.  Regarding ties to the 
U.S. and in the wake of a successful U.S.-Korea Free Trade 
Agreement (FTA), Tokyo and Washington should seriously 
consider a U.S.-Japan FTA, he concluded. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Park noted that all the major candidates in the 
December 19 presidential election in Korea were well-informed 
on foreign policy, but that nongovernmental organizations )- 
for example, those dealing with foreign assistance, 
peacekeeping, and a host of global issues )- were a new 
factor for both the candidates and the government to contend 
with.  While foreign policy was a second-tier issue in the 
campaign, the incoming President will coordinate with the 
Blue House on the timing of the submission of the FTA to the 
National Assembly.  Asking when the U.S. Congress would 
consider the agreement, he said the U.S. should view the 
U.S.-Korea FTA not only in bilateral terms, but as a 
strategic gateway to Northeast Asia. 
 
-------------- 
 
STATE 00001514  002 OF 005 
 
 
Climate Change 
-------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) S/P Member Dean Pittman, in the December 17 morning 
session, reported that the UN Climate Change Conference in 
Bali, December 3-14, successfully adapted an agreed 
framework, thanks to the support of Japan and ROK.  The 
primary goal was to ratify a framework for negotiations 
rather than start negotiating.  The framework envisioned 
conducting negotiations over the next two years with the 
principles of not pre-judging any outcomes, and not excluding 
any country.  The difficult work ahead, Pittman said, was to 
negotiate the details of the process.  He noted that the 
Major Economies Process (MEM), which will include meetings in 
Hawaii January 30-31 and in Paris in February, would 
complement and inform the UN process. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) DFM Park said the Kyoto Protocol was a great 
achievement but any future framework needed to be more 
flexible and inclusive.  He called for a framework that 
provided balance between preserving the environment and 
economic development; respected the unique economic condition 
of individual countries; assisted countries in achieving 
their environmental goals; and provided for the development 
of technologies.  Park confirmed that the ROK would support 
the MEM process, and expressed appreciation that MEM would 
respect the UN process. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) DVM Kawai agreed that the Bali conference was a 
good start and that negotiations would be lengthy and 
difficult.  He echoed the need to continue economic 
development while being mindful of climate change and to 
improve energy efficiency by developing and diversifying 
technologies.  He pointed out that while there is a strong 
interest in Japan in saving energy and reducing carbon 
emissions, given the fact that Japan has already made drastic 
cuts in corporate and household energy usage, the Japanese 
public wonders what more they can do. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) In summary, Director Gordon said the United States, 
Japan, and Korea all agreed that a climate change framework 
should be comprehensive and flexible; balance good 
environmental stewardship with sustaining high rates of 
economic growth; and make use of technology to help us 
achieve the balance.  He said the United States, Japan, 
Korea, along with Canada and Australia, could be an effective 
bridge between the European Union, which was calling for more 
rigid compliance targets, and the developing world, which was 
resisting the imposition of environmental protection 
standards. 
 
--------------- 
Energy Security 
--------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Turning to energy security, Director Gordon 
outlined five goals shared by the United States, Japan, and 
Korea: diversifying types of energy and sources of supply; 
enhancing efficiency; ensuring the safety of sea lanes and 
routes of transport; and maintaining market transparency. 
 
STATE 00001514  003 OF 005 
 
 
DFM Park and DVM Kawai agreed that technology would be key to 
addressing energy security. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Kawai added that energy security was important but 
market mechanisms were equally important.  Japanese companies 
were interested in exporting energy-saving expertise but 
would require intellectual property rights protection before 
they could provide technological expertise in foreign 
environments.  He noted Chinese companies were interested in 
energy saving technologies because they wanted to cut 
operating costs and not because they wanted to reverse 
climate change.  He agreed that diversifying oil resources 
was important.  In the past, oil shortages were supply-driven 
while recent shortages were more gradual and demand-driven. 
In response to Kawai's comment that Japan was counting on the 
U.S. Navy to provide for the protection of sea lanes, DOD 
Deputy Assistant Secretary David Sedney pointed out that the 
United States relied on our alliances with Japan and Korea, 
as well as cooperation with Malaysia, India, Pakistan, and 
Sri Lanka, to protect routes of transport.  Sedney 
highlighted Japan's Indian Ocean refueling mission in support 
of Operation Enduring Freedom as an example of international 
cooperation. 
 
-------------------- 
Iraq and Afghanistan 
-------------------- 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Director Gordon said that the United States hoped 
to build by January 2009 a relatively stable and economically 
sustainable Iraq.  We were also hoping that the Iraqi 
parliament would enact during 2008 a hydrocarbon law to 
attract new investment.  An improved security situation in 
the Sunni regions would encourage Iraq's wealthier neighbors 
to play a greater reconstruction role. 
 
¶11.  (SBU) S/P Member Amanda Catanzano stressed that 
reconstruction in Iraq and Afghanistan meant more than just 
building new schools, hospitals, and other infrastructure, 
but building institutions that worked, including a justice 
system that can root out corruption.  Catanzano noted that 
the United States was concerned that international interest 
in Afghan reconstruction was dissipating and wanted to 
revitalize that interest. 
 
¶12.  (SBU) DVM Kawai said the stability of the Middle East 
was vital for Japan.  Although Japan was limited by its 
constitution in the military forces it could contribute and 
had to suspend its refueling operation in support of 
Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) because of domestic 
politics, Japan was committed to the civilian donor 
coordination program.  He expressed confidence that the 
Japanese Diet would pass a new law to authorize Japan's 
participation in OEF. 
 
¶13.  (SBU) DFM Park said that Middle East stability was 
important for the ROK as well.  DFM Park said he observed 
during his recent visit to Kabul that the Taliban were using 
psychological means to give the impression that they were 
behind every insurgent action, thus giving rise to the 
 
STATE 00001514  004 OF 005 
 
 
possibility that the Taliban would return to power.  The 
Taliban were also fanning the perception that Pakistan wanted 
to divide Afghanistan, all of which were undermining 
stability to the country. 
 
----- 
BRICs 
----- 
 
¶14.  (SBU) Deputy Foreign Minister Park summarized a 2003 
Goldman Sachs report that argued that by 2050 the rapidly 
developing economies of Brazil, Russia, India, and China 
(BRICs) would eclipse most of the current richest economies 
of the world.  The high level of growth in these economies 
would translate into increased spending power and rising 
consumption of goods, and ultimately serve as a locomotive 
for global economic growth.  To achieve this goal, however, 
China needed to eradicate corruption and undergo a 
technological breakthrough, Park said.  Russia had to reduce 
its energy consumption, and Brazil needed to reduce 
bureaucratic red tape. 
¶15.  (SBU) Park said the BRIC countries were realizing their 
potential more quickly than Goldman Sachs had anticipated. 
In 2008 China would overtake Germany as the third largest 
economy.  India would surpass China as the largest supplier 
of labor, because of China,s low birthrate and a growing 
aging population.  On responding to the rise of the BRICs, 
Park proposed increasing our partnership with these countries 
to manage both the positive aspects of development and its 
adverse impact on the environment. 
 
¶16.  (SBU) Deputy Vice Foreign Minister Kawai said it was 
crucial to ensure that the BRIC countries remained stable, 
pointing out that macroeconomic management might be difficult 
for them.  He questioned whether they shared similar values 
to each other, and to the United States, Japan, and Korea. 
Comparing the Chinese and Indian economies, Kawai said China 
was building on 30 years of growth while India had 
experienced rapid growth in just the past ten years.  He said 
that in the course of negotiating a Free Trade Agreement with 
India, Japan had discovered that much of the population was 
in need of skills training and education. 
 
¶17.  (SBU) Director Gordon, drawing on his work for the 
National Intelligence Council 2020 report, noted that 
globalization did not necessarily mean Westernization, and as 
a result, we were increasingly seeing a decline in the 
relevance of many terminologies, including "developing 
country" and "North-South."  Gordon was struck by the 
differences that distinguished the BRIC countries from each 
other.  India and Brazil were democracies while Russia and 
China were not.  Russia was energy resource rich while China, 
India, and Brazil were high net consumers of energy without 
adequate domestic energy resources.  He also questioned 
whether the four had enough similarities to form a single 
political entity or voting block, and recalled former Deputy 
Secretary Zoellick's point of engaging them so that they 
 
SIPDIS 
would be "responsible stakeholders" in the current status 
quo.  Gordon said most people were optimistic about the 
present and immediate future but less so about the long term. 
 
STATE 00001514  005 OF 005 
 
 
 
 
¶18.  (SBU) EAP DAS Alex Arvizu said he was inclined to 
consider Mexico with the other BRICs (MBRIC).  While he was 
working in Bangkok during 1994-95, no one had any idea that 
China would be what it was today, and India was not even on 
the horizon.  The focus in the mid-1990s was more on Russia, 
but today Russia is seen as an under-performing giant, 
particular in the political context of APEC and the Six-Party 
Talks.  Arvizu suggested that the United States, Japan, and 
Korea might consider inviting Australia to the next dialogue. 
 
 
------------ 
Participants 
------------ 
 
¶19. (SBU) 
United States 
Policy Planning Director David Gordon 
S/P Principal Deputy Director Kori Schake 
S/P James Green 
S/P Amanda Catanzano 
EAP DAS Alex Arvizu 
OSD DASD David Sedney 
EAP/K Jim Heller 
Brian McFeeters, U.S. Embassy Seoul 
EAP/K Andrew Ou, Notetaker 
EAP/J Forest Yang, Notetaker 
 
Japan 
Deputy Vice Minister for Foreign Policy Chikao Kawai, MOFA 
Policy Planning Deputy Director Daisuke Hoshino, MOFA 
First Secretary Taisuke Mibae, Embassy of Japan 
 
Republic of Korea 
Deputy Foreign Minister Park In-kook, MOFAT 
Development and Cooperation Director Jeong Jin-kyu, MOFAT 
North America Division First Secretary Kang Dae-soo, MOFAT 
Policy Division First Secretary Jung Young-soo, MOFAT 
Policy Division First Secretary Hwang Jun-shik, MOFAT 
Staff to Director Jeong Lee Ah-jung, MOFAT 
Political Counselor Lee Baek-soon, Embassy of ROK 
First Secretary Ryu Chang-soo, Embassy of ROK 
RICE