VZCZCXRO3089
RR RUEHRG
DE RUEHRI #0019/01 0281636
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 281636Z JAN 08
FM AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4341
INFO RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 0701
RUEHSO/AMCONSUL SAO PAULO 5125
RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE 3403

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 RIO DE JANEIRO 000019 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
STATE FOR WHA/BSC 
 
E.O.: 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EINV ENRG PGOV BR
SUBJECT:  U.S. OIL COMPANIES ON INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN BRAZIL 
 
 
Sensitive But Unclassified.  Please handle accordingly. 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  The US Commercial Service in Rio organized an 
oil roundtable discussion with US oil companies and Ambassador Sobel 
on January 8, 2008.  The CEOs of Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Devon Energy, 
Anadarko, and Hess Corporation briefed Ambassador Sobel on the 
investment climate for foreign players in Brazil, prospects for 
future oil discoveries, and shared their views on the oil and gas 
regulatory and fiscal regimes.  The participants believed the 
overall investment climate was positive for US companies but 
obstacles included instability in the oil auctions and in the tax 
and licensing regimes.  The Ambassador offered to advocate on behalf 
of the participants with GOB officials and with the National 
Petroleum Agency (ANP).  The companies welcomed this idea and 
suggested emphasizing the need for stability to encourage 
investment.  The Ambassador also proposed that the Brazilian 
Petroleum Institute (IBP) meet with relevant foreign ambassadors in 
Brazil to discuss overall concerns.  End of Summary. 
 
¶2.  (U) Ambassador Sobel met with executives from US oil companies 
operating in Brazil on January 8 in a roundtable organized by the US 
Commercial Service in Rio and hosted by American Chamber of Commerce 
President Joao Cesar Lima.  Participants included Anadarko President 
Kurt McCaslin; Chevron Brasil President Daniel Rocha and Business 
Development and Government Relations Director Patricia Pradal; Devon 
Energy President Murilo Marroquim; Exxon Mobil (Esso) President John 
Knapp; and Hess Brasil Exploration Coordinator Paul Gomes and 
Negotiations and Business Manager Joseph Wesley. 
 
Brazil's Oil and Gas Potential 
------------------------------ 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Ambassador Sobel asked the participants for an overall 
description of the investment climate for US companies in Brazil. 
Expressing the view of all present, John Knapp, President of Exxon 
Mobil, confirmed that Exxon had a great deal of interest in Brazil 
because of perceived substantial undiscovered potential beyond even 
the Tupi field that Petrobras recently discovered.  However, he 
expressed concern about the recent unstable investment environment 
caused by Rio State tax changes, oil blocks being removed in the 
last two auctions, and the Government of Brazil's (GOB) apparent 
willingness to change the oil concession contracts.  He indicated 
that companies might begin to reassess the economic benefits of 
investing if there were continued instability. 
 
Changes in Oil Auctions 
----------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Responding to Ambassador Sobel's question on whether the 
oil blocks removed from the recent 9th oil licensing round would be 
made available for an upcoming auction, Knapp said that the GOB had 
not yet made a decision.  One of the justifications alleged by the 
GOB for having removed those blocks was based on Petrobras' 
statement that the Tupi oilfield discovery brought a new exploration 
niche for Brazil, thus reducing the exploration risk to find oil, 
with which Knapp did not agree.  In his opinion, exploring 
under-salt areas presented significant geological and technical 
challenges.  Devon Energy's President Murilo Marroquim added that 
Petrobras had lied about the easy prospects of finding oil in 
under-salt areas due to the Tupi discovery.  He believed Petrobras 
influenced the GOB to remove the blocks from the 9th oil auction to 
avoid stiff competition with other bidders.  Devon asserted that 
Petrobras did not have sufficient drilling equipment so had an 
interest in removing those blocks to allow more preparation time for 
it to bid for those blocks in future auctions. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Knapp believed that the GOB might reconsider the current 
oil auction model that is based on signature bonuses.  Marroquim 
from Devon did not seem so sure about drastic changes, and added 
that if substantial modifications to the current oil law were 
proposed, the Brazilian Congress would need to approve them, which 
might take a long time.  Marroquim believed that the GOB might not 
want to take this route as it may have an unpredictable outcome. 
For example, he and others cited the new proposed gas bill that has 
been in Congress for at least four years.  Petrobras has been 
advocating to protect its interests in gas infrastructure, but 
several amendments have been made to the gas bill that may, in the 
end, not favor Petrobras.  (Note:  In a recent interview to the 
Folha de Sco Paulo newspaper, Petrobras President Gabrielli cleared 
defended changes in future oil auctions.  He views oil production 
sharing or service rendering contracts, where an oil company 
operates an oilfield and is financially compensated for that while 
the State keeps the oil field ownership, as better contract 
alternatives for Brazil.) 
 
Advocacy through IBP 
-------------------- 
 
 
RIO DE JAN 00000019  002 OF 004 
 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Ambassador Sobel suggested that the US companies engage 
other foreign Chambers of Commerce in Brazil to advocate for their 
interests.  Marroquim assured the Ambassador that they already work 
through the Brazilian Petroleum Institute (IBP) and noted that 
generally when politically sensitive topics were discussed at IBP 
meetings, Petrobras officials tended not to participate as actively. 
 Ambassador Sobel also suggested that the IBP organize a meeting 
with foreign Ambassadors in Brazil to have an open dialogue about 
the sector's issues.  Chevron Business Development and Government 
Relations Director Patricia Pradal, who sits on the IBP Steering 
Group, expressed an interest in coordinating such a roundtable. 
Additionally, Rio American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham) President 
Joco Lima mentioned that some state governors seemed interested in a 
roundtable with the AmChams, which Ambassador Sobel found 
interesting due to the political clout it may give to the oil 
industry. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Marroquim further commented that in December 2007, right 
after the 9th oil auction, the IBP met with the National Oil 
Regulatory Agency (ANP) to voice the oil industry's concern about 
possible changes in the oil law.  The ANP General Director 
reportedly told IBP that the GOB might want to review current oil 
royalty and special participation fee levels.  (Note:  The latter 
refers to payment due on oil and natural gas exploration and 
production in the case of high volume or high profit margin fields. 
The basis for calculating the special participation fees is net 
revenue from quarterly production from each field after the legally 
permitted deductions.  The percentage rates vary from 10 to 40%.) 
If these fee changes are made, IBP believes there will be no need to 
pass them by Congress.  Anadarko's President Kurt McCaslin said that 
oil royalties were in place in the Gulf of Mexico, but special 
participation fees were not.  McCaslin emphasized that indirect 
taxes in Brazil, in general, were a burden for foreign investors. 
 
Partnership with Petrobras 
-------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) All US companies present at the oil roundtable confirmed 
that they are partnered with Petrobras in some capacity.  For 
example, Devon holds nine oil concessions in Brazil, three of which 
are in partnership with Petrobras.  Anadarko is partnered with 
Petrobras in four out of ten oil concessions.  Chevron is currently 
developing the Frade oil field with Petrobras.  Hess has one block 
in partnership with Petrobras and Exxon, the latter as the field 
operator. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) McCaslin stressed that Petrobras owned oil and gas 
infrastructure in Brazil, but being a partner with Petrobras did not 
mean one would have automatic access to the facilities.  Marroquim 
stated that if one produced natural gas, it had to sell to 
Petrobras.  On the other hand, oil offshore production did not 
depend as much on Petrobras' infrastructure, making exports from 
Brazil an easy process.   Knapp explained that it was strictly a 
business decision if a company wanted to work with Petrobras. 
Sometimes it made more sense to work independently.  In this regard, 
Brazil could be considered an open oil market.  "More and more 
companies now have acreage where Petrobras is not a partner."  A 
good example of companies not partnered with Petrobras was the case 
of new oil player OGX, owned by a large Brazilian mining company EBX 
and investor Eike Batista.  In the most recent oil round, OGX 
presented the highest bids for seven blocks with strong potential in 
the offshore Campos basin.  OBX spent more than 1.4 billion reais 
(US$754 million), which was more than 70% of the total for the 
entire round.  Batista was able to attract a team of former 
Petrobras officials to work at OGX, including Francisco Gros, 
ex-President of Petrobras; Paulo Mendonga, ex-Executive Manager of 
E&P of Petrobras; and Luis Reis, ex-Petrobras Contract Manager. 
 
GOB to Limit Oil Exports from Brazil? 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Another regulatory risk cited in the roundtable was that 
the GOB might restrict oil exports if Petrobras delayed domestic 
(e.g. Tupi) oil production.  The Brazilian oil law allows for this 
possibility in case of oil shortage and energy security interests. 
McCaslin worried that oil shortages caused by delayed production 
might lead to instability in government and a subsequent change in 
oil laws requiring foreign companies to sell to Petrobras.  Hess 
Corporation Oil Exploration Coordinator Paulo Otvio Gomes did not 
foresee any technological barriers that would inhibit Petrobras 
developing the Tupi field.  Gomes cited Petrobras' advanced 
technological research center as an important tool to give all the 
technological support Petrobras would need.  He himself led a key 
Petrobras' project when he worked there aimed at the geological 
evaluation of the under-salt section of the Santos Basin, including 
the Tupi and "Sugar Loaf" deepwater areas between 1999 and 2001. 
Gomes believed there were further discoveries adjacent to Tupi.  He 
hoped these fields would be offered in a competitive auction so Hess 
 
RIO DE JAN 00000019  003 OF 004 
 
 
could participate. 
 
Brazil's Gas Needs 
------------------ 
 
¶11.  (SBU) The participants agreed that Petrobras and Venezuela's 
government oil company PDVSA joint projects were aimed at increasing 
Brazil's heavy oil refining capacity, but Marroquim did not believe 
that the planned mega gas pipeline from Venezuela to Brazil would 
materialize since Petrobras is bringing liquefied natural gas (LNG) 
plants to Brazil instead.  None of the US oil companies are 
partnered with Petrobras in this new LNG business in Brazil.  In 
Marroquim's opinion, Brazil was being forced to invest in Bolivia to 
produce more gas.  There is pressure for Petrobras to supply enough 
gas to fire the natural gas power plants because of low hydropower 
reservoir levels and possible power shortages.  (Note:  Although 
Petrobras owns the majority of domestic gas-fired power plants, a 
predominant share of Brazil's energy comes from hydropower 
(81.2%)). 
 
Taxation Problems 
----------------- 
 
¶12.  (SBU) When asked about the status of changes to Rio State's VAT 
("ICMS") tax on oil equipment, Patricia Pradal from Chevron provided 
a quick background on the temporary admission regime (REPETRO) that 
the Federal government created in 1999.  REPETRO exempted from 
federal taxes the importation of some of the equipment used by the 
oil and gas exploration and production industry.  Since then, some 
states, particularly Rio, have made some changes that increased the 
states' VAT tax.  (Note:  About 85% of the oil produced in Brazil 
comes from the state of Rio.  However, the VAT tax on the oil 
produced goes to the states where the oil is refined, mainly Sco 
Paulo which has four refineries.  This has created a feeling of 
inequity.)  Pradal said that the most recent development to the VAT 
tax was a counter-proposal made by IBP where Rio State would tax 5% 
with future credits, or, alternatively, 2% without credit.  The Rio 
State Finance Secretary Joaquim Levy is considering a 3 to 7% 
alternative. 
 
¶13.  (SBU) The participants welcomed Ambassador Sobel's advocacy 
offer with Levy and suggested that the Ambassador convey to him a 
message on the need for tax stability.  As the oil industry's high 
investments are only recovered long-term, it was crucial that they 
invest under a stable tax regime. 
 
Licensing Complaints 
-------------------- 
 
¶14.  (SBU) When the Ambassador asked how relations were with 
Brazil's environmental licensing organization IBAMA, several 
participants lamented the wait time on approvals and suggested that 
IBAMA's personnel could benefit from training offered by other 
countries, as Padral noted USG officials had done before.  McCaslin 
said, "It does not matter when you need the permit, they will 
approve it two weeks before." 
 
Advocacy through Upcoming USG Visitors 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶15.  (SBU) Ambassador Sobel cited the upcoming visits to Brazil of 
Energy Secretary Bodman and other VIPs as opportunities to engage 
GOB officials on areas of concern.  He also welcomed talking points 
for his upcoming meeting with ANP and suggested another oil 
roundtable with Secretary Bodman during his visit.  (Note:  CS Rio 
has scheduled a meeting with ANP for February 15.)  Regarding the 
meeting with ANP, Gomes added that conveying the importance of 
having a 10th round in 2008 would be appreciated. 
 
¶16.  (SBU) Chevron President Daniel Rocha noted that he was 
impressed with ANP's efficiency during the 9th oil auction and he 
hoped that ANP would preserve that system as it was a cornerstone 
for oil investment in Brazil.  He added that the ANP had strong 
credibility and a good reputation for respecting contract sanctity. 
Rocha further stated that as Petrobras had recently been able to win 
a lion's share of blocks in the Gulf of Mexico, ANP should see that 
Brazil continued to benefit from foreign investment. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶17.  (SBU) Although our interlocutors complained of Brazil's 
somewhat inadequate climate for foreign investment due to tax 
instability, possible regulatory framework changes, and Petrobras' 
dominance and influence over regulatory issues, all oil roundtable 
participants seemed interested in remaining in Brazil due to good 
geological prospects to find oil and gas, and a more reliable 
investment and business environment than many other countries.  A 
 
RIO DE JAN 00000019  004 OF 004 
 
 
new Brazilian Minister of Mines and Energy recently assumed office. 
He will be faced primarily with ways to avoid power shortage in 2008 
and 2009.  Some directors at Petrobras are also expected to change 
due to political pressure from opposition parties.  It remains to be 
seen how these changes may impact Brazil's oil sector, especially 
regarding future oil auctions. 
 
This cable has been cleared with Embassy Brasilia. 
 
MARTINEZ