VZCZCXRO2324
RR RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHRN RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHFR #0081/01 0151150
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 151150Z JAN 08
FM AMEMBASSY PARIS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1703
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RUEHXR/RWANDA COLLECTIVE
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 1454

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 000081 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/14/2018 
TAGS: PREL MARR MOPS PINS PHUM SU CD CT KE RW FR
SUBJECT: SUDAN/KENYA/RWANDA:  MFA DAS PROVIES OVERVIEW 
 
REF: PARIS 72 
 
Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Josiah Rosenblatt, 1.4 (b/d 
). 
 
¶1.  (C)  SUMMARY:  MFA DAS-equivalent Helene Le Gal (Central 
and East Africa) on January 11 said that France was highly 
concerned about renewed Chad-Sudan fighting but that the 
arrival in February of the EU's PKO in Chad and C.A.R. could 
help ease tensions.  France renewed Abdulwahid el-Nur's 
residency permit at the end of December, but only for one 
month, and continues to urge him to join the peace process. 
France, along with other EU members, considers the recent 
elections in Kenya to have been massively fraudulent, and is 
considering suspending assistance programs.  Le Gal confirmed 
the arrest of Rwandan genocide suspect Marcel Bivugabagabo 
but cautioned that extradition could be a long process, with 
no guarantee that he would be returned to Rwanda.  She said 
that France remains open to normalizing relations with Rwanda 
but that the Rwandans do not seem willing to move so long as 
former Judge Bruguiere's report, accusing a number of 
Rwandans, including President Kagame, of involvement in the 
1994 genocide, continues to stand.  END SUMMARY. 
 
SUDAN 
 
¶2.  (C)  MFA DAS-equivalent Helene Le Gal on January 11 
reviewed a number of subjects within her area of 
responsibility, beginning with Sudan.  She said that France 
was highly concerned about the renewal of fighting between 
Chad and Sudan, which was following "the classic pattern" -- 
GOC forces going after Chadian rebels in Sudan, and Sudanese 
forces opposing Sudanese rebels in Chad.  What was new and 
disturbing, however, was Chad's aerial bombardment of 
supposed Chadian rebel camps well within Sudan.  When asked 
how Chad had acquired the means to carry out such attacks, Le 
Gal said that it had used its "oil money" to buy or rent the 
services of "the usual suspects" in terms of arms suppliers. 
She noted that JEM was taking over relatively broad areas of 
western Darfur and was benefiting (perhaps not 
uncoincidentally) from the Chadian aerial bombardments.  Le 
Gal said that the only recent positive development related to 
Sudan was the easing of North-South tensions.  She added that 
the arrival in February of the EU's peacekeeping mission in 
Chad and C.A.R. would have a deterrent effect that could ease 
tension and perhaps reduce the level of fighting. 
 
¶3.  (C)  Le Gal said that France had, reluctantly, extended 
Darfur rebel leader Abdulwahid el-Nur's French residency 
permit when it expired on December 28, but that the extension 
was for one month only.  He was told at the time of the 
renewal that further extensions would be contingent on his 
joining the peace talks.  However, Le Gal noted that the 
peace talks were moribund and that, at the end of January, 
Abdulwahid could, not unfairly, claim that it was impossible 
for him to join peace talks that did not exist and that his 
residency should be extended again.  Le Gal said that in such 
a case, the GOF probably would extend his permit.  She 
commented that Abdulwahid continued to show no signs of 
cooperating with others, instead relying on his usual mantra 
that "everyone should follow me." 
 
KENYA 
 
¶4.  (C)  Le Gal said that EU member states were united in 
their belief that the recent Kenyan elections were massively 
fraudulent and that the results announced were contrary to 
the actual vote.  MFA desk officer Thierry Caboche 
participated in the EU observer mission and Le Gal said that 
he and other observers had no doubt that the "election was 
stolen."  Le Gal said that all EU member states were deeply 
disappointed in this development as Kenya had had such a good 
reputation, with an apparent entrenched commitment to 
democracy.  Now, she reported, the EU was considering 
suspending some forms of economic assistance.  She said that 
France would likely join EU consensus, noting that "we have a 
fair number of projects in Kenya."  She regretted this but 
said that Europe rightfully had held Kenya to a high 
standard.  "If we 'punish' other less developed countries for 
their 'errors,' we can hardly let Kenya get away with what 
has happened," Le Gal commented.  She added that a recount of 
the vote was no longer plausible; too much time had elapsed 
to allow for confidence in the integrity of the ballots.  If 
Kenya wanted to do something, "the only thing would be to 
hold completely new elections," she observed. 
 
 
PARIS 00000081  002 OF 002 
 
 
RWANDA 
 
¶5.  (C)  Le Gal confirmed the recent arrest in the Toulouse 
area of former Rwandan Lieutenant Colonel Marcel 
Bivugabagabo, who was one of nine Rwandans supposedly living 
in France named in a September 2007 warrant forwarded by 
Rwanda to France.  Le Gal said that the arrest was a good 
step in terms of France-Rwanda relations, but she expressed 
doubt that Bivugabagabo would be returned soon to Rwanda. 
His case would be heard in court and she cautioned that a 
judge could plausibly conclude that Bivugabagabo faced a high 
chance of persecution if he returned to Rwanda, even though 
Rwanda had abolished the death penalty.  His case could, 
therefore, take a long time, with no assurance that he would 
be extradited. 
 
¶6.  (C)  Le Gal said that France remained ready to normalize 
relations with Rwanda, and so too, to a limited extent, did 
Rwanda.  The obstacle that the Rwandans could not overcome, 
however, was then-Judge Bruguiere's report on the 1994 
genocide and his recommendation that a number of senior 
Rwandans be either prosecuted or investigated for 
involvement.  President Kagame was among this group, and he 
remained, in Le Gal's view, adamantly opposed to improving 
relations so long as Bruguiere's report continued to carry 
legal weight, which it did.  Addressed in part to the UN, the 
report did not receive much in the way of a response by 
then-SYG Kofi Annan, but Kagame was not assuaged.  Le Gal 
believed that he would continue to resist efforts to improve 
relations until something was done by the GOF to negate or 
nullify the report.  Unfortunately, Le Gal noted, the matter 
rested with the judiciary, over which the GOF had only 
limited control, a point the Rwandans understood but had 
trouble stomaching.  She thus concluded that despite French 
willingness, relations with Rwanda were likely to improve 
slowly, if at all. 
 
 
 
 
Please visit Paris' Classified Website at: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm 
 
 
PEKALA