VZCZCXRO1088
OO RUEHFK RUEHKSO RUEHNAG RUEHNH
DE RUEHOK #0014/01 0251022
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 251022Z JAN 08
FM AMCONSUL OSAKA KOBE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0985
INFO RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO IMMEDIATE 8123
RUEHKSO/AMCONSUL SAPPORO PRIORITY 0213
RUEHNAG/AMCONSUL NAGOYA PRIORITY 2326
RUEHFK/AMCONSUL FUKUOKA PRIORITY 0202
RUEHNH/AMCONSUL NAHA PRIORITY 0225

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 OSAKA KOBE 000014 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV JA
SUBJECT: AN UNCONVENTIONAL LDP CAMPAIGN TO WIN OSAKA 
GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION 
 
Introduction 
------------ 
¶1.  (SBU) In the Osaka gubernatorial election to be 
held on Sunday, January 27, political observers and the 
media are unanimous in predicting a win for the LDP 
candidate, Toru Hashimoto (38), a lawyer and TV 
personality.  The LDP, after suffering a string of 
defeats last year culminating with the DPJ winning the 
key Osaka mayoral election, scrapped its standard 
electoral strategy and fielded a young candidate with 
strong name recognition rather than a political 
pedigree.  The opposition DPJ has chosen an older, 
decidedly un-telegenic establishment candidate in an 
attempt to appear as the more responsible, trustworthy 
party. 
 
Wanted: A new style of LDP 
-------------------------- 
¶2. (U) Hashimoto's brain trust, former Economic 
Planning Agency director Taichi Sakaiya, Hashimoto's TV 
promoter Shoichiro Ryu, and other popular talent agency 
directors, have waged a guerrilla campaign that has 
hidden overt signs of LDP and Komeito support in order 
to seem more spontaneous and independent.  They also 
borrowed from TV marketing strategy to limit the 
candidate's exposure in a "premium marketing" campaign, 
so that each appearance and poster carried more weight. 
 
DPJ: Your father's party 
------------------------ 
¶3. (U) DPJ Tokyo headquarters also broke with tradition 
(over considerable local DPJ chapter opposition) by 
forcing DPJ Osaka to select its own candidate instead 
of working with the LDP to name a consensus candidate. 
The DPJ strategy has been to show the party's closeness 
to Sadatoshi Kumagai, a former engineering professor, 
by organizing frequent campaign appearances by party 
president Ichiro Ozawa, other party leaders, and Rengo 
trade union representatives.  Ozawa even skipped the 
Diet vote on the new Operation Enduring Freedom 
refueling law in order to campaign for Kumagai in Osaka. 
 
¶4. (SBU) The DPJ strategy appeared to be working. 
Initially the business community, Komeito, and many 
rank-and-file LDP members were either publicly neutral 
or opposed to Hashimoto because of his lack of 
experience and frequent controversial utterances on TV. 
LDP campaign strategy chairman Makoto Koga pressured 
the business community to support the LDP candidate, 
and they have issued nominal support.  Komeito remains 
reluctant to get burned again by an overly close 
association with unpopular LDP policies and candidates. 
Nonetheless, it started to ramp up its support of 
Hashimoto. 
 
Negative campaigns: Bad 
----------------------- 
¶5. (SBU) Young, unaffiliated voters began to come out 
for Hashimoto.  Once Hashimoto pulled ahead in weekend 
polling, the Kumagai camp turned negative.  One 
anonymous pampthlet circulated to three million 
households highlighted several of Hashimoto's most 
controversial public statements, questioning his 
fitness for office -- all true, but taboo in Japanese 
campaign tactics.  Poleconoff witnessed DPJ Dietmember 
Takashi Nagayasu making similar comments at a political 
fundraiser.  The backlash in the blogosphere among 
young voters was swift and unforgiving of Kumagai, who 
has denied involvement with the pamphlets.  Osaka 
housewives have started to say that the stiff and 
graying Kumagai reminds them of their domineering 
husbands, surely the kiss of death in this highly 
televised campaign. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Comment: It is too early to tell whether or 
not the LDP can find well-known telegenic candidates 
for its other races.  However, it is apparent that the 
fear of losing yet more elections in major markets like 
Osaka (Japan's delegate-rich second city) has motivated 
the party to try unconventional measures at masking the 
ruling coalition's lack of popularity and maintaining 
relevance in local politics.  In any case, experts are 
doubtful that neophytes like Hashimoto will have any 
chance at tackling the pressing issues facing Osaka 
Prefecture.  Most important will be restructuring 
Osaka's public finances, already on the verge of 
 
OSAKA KOBE 00000014  002 OF 002 
 
 
insolvency.  Second, Osaka's new governor will have to 
correct the growing regional disparities with Tokyo in 
academic ability, domestic and foreign investment 
levels, and employment opportunities.  End comment. 
 
RUSSEL