VZCZCXRO5094
RR RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHNC #0042/01 0171528
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 171528Z JAN 08
FM AMEMBASSY NICOSIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8514
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA 5122
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 1052

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NICOSIA 000042 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/11/2018 
TAGS: PGOV PREL TR CY
SUBJECT: TURKISH CYPRIOTS DIVIDED OVER GREEK CYPRIOT 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 
 
 
Classified By: Classified by CDA Jane Zimmerman for reasons 1.4 (b) and 
 1.4 (d) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary:  Although closely watched by Turkish Cypriot 
(T/C) politicos, February 2008 presidential elections in the 
Republic of Cyprus do not engender in the north widespread 
hope for a future settlement.  Of those we polled in the 
"ruling," pro-solution Republican Turkish Party (CTP), a 
majority believe that victory by either of the two opposition 
candidates, Dimitris Christofias or Ioannis Kasoulides, might 
jump-start currently stalled negotiations.  The T/C 
"opposition" -- and even some high-ranking CTP insiders -- 
argue, however, that the Greek Cypriots (G/Cs) seek 
dominance, not an equitable Cyprus partnership, and that 
ultimately it makes little difference who comes to power in 
the south.  All agree that the international community, 
especially the United States, must bring pressure to bear if 
the new RoC president-elect is to negotiate in earnest.  End 
Summary. 
Anybody but Papadopoulos (For Pro-Solution T/Cs) 
¶2. (C) A majority of those "ruling" CTP interlocutors we have 
engaged support either of the two opposition candidates, 
Dimitris Christofias or Ioannis Kasoulides, in the RoC 
presidential elections, with a clear preference for 
Kasoulides.  "TRNC Prime Minister" Ferdi Sabit Soyer told us 
in late December that he preferred Kasoulides because he 
opposed Christofias's "far left rhetoric."  He quipped that, 
"We are part of the West.  The dialogue should be along 
liberal and EU lines."  Talat Private Secretary Asim Akansoy 
dubbed Christofias an "inflexible ideologue" and said that 
T/Cs wanted Kasoulides to win.  Papadopoulos, according to 
Akansoy, is "primitive and thinks in terms of the 19th 
century, blood and all."  He added that "good negotiations, 
based on the Annan Plan, in deed, if not in name," could 
resume if either of the two challengers won election. 
¶3. (C) Not all CTP officials were as hopeful as Soyer or 
Akansoy regarding an election victory by Kasoulides or 
Christofias.  Newly-appointed Cyprus Problem negotiator and 
CTP "deputy" Ozdil Nami believes things will be easier with 
either challenger in office, but noted that every leader was 
constrained by his people.  "Presidential Spokesman" Hasan 
Ercakica said it made no difference who won the elections. 
Leftist Christofias had gone "too far to the right" on the 
Cyprus Question during the campaign, meaning he had adopted 
hard-line, G/C-nationalist positions, and would be unable 
politically to return to a more pro-solution slant.  Ercakica 
added that, until the G/Cs gave up the goal of dominating 
"the Turks" on the island, the Cyprus Problem would remain 
unresolved. 
Alleged G/Cs "Racism" Toward T/Cs Predominates 
¶4. (C) The opposition in the North, even those who are 
pro-solution, expect no movement in negotiations after the 
G/C presidential elections, even if Papadopoulos is defeated. 
 UBP "deputy" and former party leader Huseyin Ozgurgun, who 
unlike most party mates voted YES in the 2004 Annan Plan 
referendum, joked that "it could be Huseyin in power, could 
be Arda, but nothing will change.  The Greek Cypriots are 
content with the present situation."  Serdar Denktash, head 
of the Democrat Party (DP), followed the same line, claiming 
G/C policy will not waver even after a change in 
administration.  Denktash recently told us he preferred 
Papadopoulos, who is "genuine," over the "deceitful" 
Christofias.  Former T/C Cyprus Problem negotiator Rasit 
Pertev, who resigned in December and who now heads the 
"People,s Party" (Halk Partisi), trusts Kasoulides more than 
the others.  Nevertheless, he believed that there was little 
difference among the main candidates on the Cyprus Problem 
due to G/C "racism" against Turkish Cypriots. 
"Not Enough to Say We Want a Solution" 
¶5. (C) Even the most optimistic Turkish Cypriots told us that 
the international community, especially the United States, 
must bring pressure to bear on whomever gets elected in the 
RoC, if real progress is to be made on the Cyprus Problem. 
Akansoy said that the best way to "influence" the G/Cs was 
not to punish them, but to give something to the T/C 
community, such us greater investment or direct flights. 
"Prime Minister" Soyer mentioned the EU Direct Trade 
Regulation, which he hoped would be passed soon.  New Cyprus 
Problem negotiator Nami quipped that "it is not enough to say 
we want a solution (to get the G/Cs to negotiate in earnest). 
 You (the international community) have to do something." 
Ozgurgun said that, if the Turkish Cypriots are "integrated" 
more into to the world, the G/Cs "will come to the table." 
The G/Cs did not want to "share the pie," he continued, since 
 
NICOSIA 00000042  002 OF 002 
 
 
they already enjoyed international legitimacy/recognition and 
thus had no incentives to do so. 
Comment: 
¶6. (C) Depressed by the stall in negotiations and by 
perceived slights from the international community, for a 
majority of Turkish Cypriots, solving the Cyprus Problem has 
become less an existential issue.  This explains why the 
neck-and-neck presidential campaign in the south, which 
dominates the news there and divides the population into 
partisan camps, mostly spawns yawns and resignation amidst 
the rank-and-file north of the Green Line.  Christofias, 
whose AKEL party ideologically resembles CTP and who 
regularly boasts of friendly relations with Turkish Cypriots, 
would seem to be the T/Cs' preferred candidate.  Many, 
however, have not forgotten the AKEL commissar's last-minute 
Annan Plan flip-flop, which contributed greatly to the 
initiative's failure in the G/C community.  Similarly, other 
Turkish Cypriots who might have supported YES voter and 
Euro-modern Kasoulides are troubled by his recent -- and we 
think, electorally-motivated -- adoption of harder-line 
CyProb policies.  Yet their discomfort with the challengers 
pales in comparison to their contempt for Papadopoulos, who, 
to most T/Cs, embodies the worst excesses of Cyprus's 
ethnically-dominant Greek Cypriot community.  We surmise that 
most Turkish Cypriots would delight in the incumbent's defeat 
come February, and hold hope that a Christofias or Kasoulides 
victory might bode well for future negotiations. 
ZIMMERMAN