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FM AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL
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INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 3253
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0451
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ JAN LIMA 3675
RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO 0452

C O N F I D E N T I A L GUAYAQUIL 000025 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/31/2018 
TAGS: PGOV EC
SUBJECT: NEBOT OUTDRAWS CORREA IN COMPETING GUAYAQUIL 
MARCHES 
 
REF: 07 GUAYAQUIL 512 
 
Classified By: Acting Consul General Greg Chapman for reasons 1.4 (b) a 
nd (d) 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: President Rafael Correa and Guayaquil Mayor 
Jaime Nebot recently convoked competing peaceful marches in 
Ecuador's largest city, which allowed them to measure their 
respective popularity.  Correa's rally was highly successful, 
drawing a large crowd of demonstrators that the government 
bussed in from outside Guayaquil on January 19.  However, 
approximately twice as many Guayaquil residents took to the 
streets in support of Nebot less than a week later.  The 
mayor's rally attracted marchers from all sectors of 
Guayaquil society, indicating the city's poor and middle 
class are increasingly turned off by Correa's insults and 
attacks on Guayaquil institutions.  Aggressively negative ads 
that repeatedly encouraged Guayaquil residents to stay home 
further tarnished the government's image in the coastal city. 
 Nebot plans to build on his success in his hometown by 
marching to Montecristi again and presenting a list of 
Guayaquil's demands to the Constituent Assembly.  Other 
opposition leaders supported him in the march, but as in the 
past, the different groups cannot seem to agree on common 
goals, and the alliance is flimsy.  The government may be 
worried by Nebot's show of strength, but it still has a 
strong hand to play.  END SUMMARY. 
 
PAIS BUSSES THOUSANDS TO GUAYAQUIL FOR FIRST ANNIVERSARY 
---------- 
 
¶2. (C) Hoping to divert attention from protests planned by 
Guayaquil Mayor Jaime Nebot in response to perceived attacks 
on the coastal city's autonomy (Reftel), the central 
government organized a march in Guayaquil on January 19, 
ostensibly in celebration of the completion of President 
Rafael Correa's first year in office.  The rally was entirely 
peaceful and drew a huge crowd.  Sheylan Kow, Public 
Relations Officer for Guayas Governor Camilo Saman, reported 
to Poloff that Correa brought all of his ministers along with 
him for the event. 
 
¶3. (C) Although local newspapers estimated that more than 
80,000 people attended the rally, a contact in the Guayas 
Transit Commission (CTG) told Poloff the actual turnout was 
closer to 50,000.  "The newspapers calculated the total based 
on aerial photographs of the main boulevard," explained David 
Baquerizo, Operational Coordinator of the CTG's Directive 
Council.  "They did not account for the fact that many cars 
were parked on either side of the street, taking up extra 
space.  Our calculations were based on the number and 
capacity of the buses that arrived in the city."  Baquerizo 
added that the majority of the marchers came in these 
government-sponsored buses.  "There were very few people from 
Guayaquil at the march," he asserted. 
 
NEBOT'S MARCH ONE WEEK LATER DRAWS DOUBLE THE CROWD 
---------- 
 
¶4. (C) Less than a week after the government's rally, Nebot 
held the first in what he has promised would be a series of 
pro-Guayaquil, pro-autonomy demonstrations during the months 
of January and February.  A massive swarm of Guayaquil 
residents from diverse socioeconomic backgrounds marched down 
the city's main avenue on January 24 in response to the 
mayor's call to defend the city against Correa's attacks. 
Like the government's march, Nebot's gathering was completely 
peaceful.  Ecuavisa TV reporter Ruth del Salto covered the 
march from a platform high above the street and estimated to 
Poloff that between 100,000 and 200,000 people participated. 
Other observers confirmed her assessment that the rally was 
about twice as large as the government's.  Mayor Nebot later 
gushed to the Consul General that the huge turnout was a sign 
that "Correa cannot continue to insult and step on Guayaquil". 
 
FOR FIRST TIME, THE POOR RALLY TO SUPPORT GUAYAQUIL MAYOR 
---------- 
 
¶5. (C) While most of PAIS's marchers were from out of town, 
nearly all of the pro-Nebot crowd came from Guayaquil, 
including many from poorer neighborhoods where Correa has 
historically enjoyed high popularity.  This support came even 
though the event organizers appear not to have offered 
financial incentives to marchers.  A Consulate driver who 
attended the rally was surprised to learn that participants 
even had to pay for the white t-shirts that were the 
unofficial march uniform.  Rafael Cuesta, President of 
Guayaquil's New Civic Junta (NJCG) and an event organizer, 
 
confirmed that the city provided only some additional public 
transportation.  "Guayaquil's poor participated because they 
are worried that they will lose the benefits and the programs 
that the city and the private foundations do here.  When the 
president criticized the Charitable Junta (a highly popular 
private NGO that provides most of the medical care that 
Guayaquil's poor receive), they saw what life might be like 
without autonomy," he told Poloff.  Patricia de Burbano, 
Managing Editor of Vistazo Magazine, agreed.  "The city has a 
lot of programs for the poor, including titling of squatter 
properties, free books to public school students and improved 
health services," she said.  "People believe these are in 
danger." 
 
¶6. (C) Nebot's rally also drew many political moderates and 
first-time marchers outraged by Correa's perceived antagonism 
towards the coastal city and the heavy-handed government 
response to the failed Montecristi march.  Many local 
Consulate staff who had never attended a political rally 
before participated in the pro-Nebot march.  Rodolfo Barniol, 
an advisor to former president Gustavo Noboa, told Poloff 
that it was also the first time he had demonstrated for a 
political cause.  "I was just so bothered by the clearly 
centralist and controlling tendencies of this government," he 
said. 
 
PROPAGANDA CAMPAIGNS INTENSE; GOVERNMENT FIGHTS DIRTY 
---------- 
 
¶7. (C) During the five days between the two marches, both 
sides engaged in a heated media campaign to influence 
potential marchers.  Both the city and the government ran 
several television ads per hour in the days leading up to the 
January 24 march, encouraging citizens to participate and 
urging them to stay home, respectively.  Minister of 
Government Fernando Bustamante also publicly warned Guayaquil 
residents a few days before the mayor's march that the 
government had information about possible violence during the 
demonstration.  The government's aggressive (and in the case 
of Bustamante, apparently false) propaganda left a sour taste 
in the mouths of many in Guayaquil.  "(Telling people to stay 
home) was a very questionable use of public funds," rightwing 
El Universo editorialist Gabriela Calderon told Poloff.  "It 
shows how worried the government was about this march." 
 
NEBOT TO PRESS ADVANTAGE WITH ANOTHER MARCH ON MONTECRISTI 
---------- 
 
¶8. (C) According to New Civic Junta President Cuesta, Nebot 
plans to draft a "Guayaquil mandate" ) essentially a list of 
Guayaquil's demands for more autonomy ) and bring it to the 
Constituent Assembly in Montecristi as part of a second 
march.  Although Cuesta was not able to give Poloff specific 
details on what would be included in the document, he said 
that most items related to decentralization of public 
services.  Journalist Calderon believes that Nebot will act 
quickly to capitalize on the success of his rally.  "I expect 
him to organize the march to Montecristi in the next couple 
of weeks," she said. 
 
OPPOSITION STILL DIVIDED 
---------- 
 
¶9. (C) Although Guayaquil-based opposition groups came 
together to support the mayor during his rally, they remain 
far from united.  PRIAN party boss Alvaro Noboa, who recently 
lost his Constituent Assembly seat for failing to provide a 
list of his financial assets, told the Consul General that he 
and his wife, fellow PRIAN Assembly member Anabella Azin, 
only showed up to appear in a few photos for his archives. 
"When people ask me later where I was when Guayaquil needed 
me, I will have evidence," he said. 
 
¶10. (C) Cuesta and the NJCG fully supported the march but are 
frustrated with the mayor's plans to focus only on Guayaquil. 
 "Nebot is too focused on issues of municipal control.  We 
should expand the movement to include all of Guayas 
(Province)," he said.  "We have the support of many of the 
smaller towns."  With that in mind, Cuesta said that he is 
trying to enlist the support of Fuerza Ecuador's Humberto 
Mata, former Ecuadorian Roldosista Party (PRE) congressman 
Jimmy Jairala, and Fuerza Guayas's Roberto Gilbert.  "I would 
like to get their help in convincing Nebot to think more 
globally," he told Poloff.  "(Barcelona Soccer Club President 
and A New Option (UNO) Assembly member) Eduardo Maruri has 
offered to act as an intermediary."  Cuesta declared that his 
group would not support demands that did not extend to all of 
Guayas Province, but admitted that this would not make much 
 
of a difference.  "Nebot does not necessarily need our 
backing," he said. 
 
NEBOT'S BIG WIN HAS GOVERNMENT WORRRIED 
---------- 
 
¶11. (C) COMMENT: Most observers felt that Nebot scored a huge 
win by both convoking a larger crowd than Correa and proving 
that he has the support of Guayaquil's poor, not just the 
privileged.  The president has repeatedly accused the mayor 
of being a pawn of the wealthy elite, so the diverse crowd 
gives Nebot a key weapon in the war of words.  Compounding 
its problems, PAIS also hurt itself tremendously with its 
intensely negative advertising campaign.  Many politically 
moderate Guayaquil residents were disgusted by the 
heavy-handedness of the government's approach and are tiring 
of Correa's abrasive and insulting style.  For the second 
time in as many months, the Correa administration has come 
off looking defensive and insecure about its ability to win 
votes in Guayaquil. 
 
¶12. (C) Whether the opposition is able to capitalize on its 
victory and win the next round remains to be seen.  Nebot's 
vision for opposing Correa does not match entirely with those 
of many other opposition groups, and his focus remains almost 
exclusively on Guayaquil equities.  Nebot has said repeatedly 
that he does not want to run (again) for president, but he is 
significant as the only leader of national stature currently 
able to stand up to the president in a politically powerful 
and highly visible way.  At the same time, Correa remains 
highly popular and seems to have convinced many other 
municipalities, even in the coastal region, that Guayaquil's 
autonomy only draws resources away from less wealthy areas. 
PAIS still has the central government's resources at its 
disposal and a supportive majority in the Constituent 
Assembly ready to pass laws that can dilute Nebot's power. 
 
Chapman