VZCZCXRO5566
PP RUEHCI
DE RUEHKA #0015/01 0061122
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 061122Z JAN 08
FM AMEMBASSY DHAKA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5907
INFO RUEHLM/AMEMBASSY COLOMBO PRIORITY 8249
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD PRIORITY 1977
RUEHKT/AMEMBASSY KATHMANDU PRIORITY 9470
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 0403
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL KOLKATA PRIORITY 1096

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DHAKA 000015 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR F 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/06/2018 
TAGS: EAID ECON PGOV PREL MPOS BG
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR USAID WARD'S VISIT TO BANGLADESH 
 
 
Classified By:  CDA a.i. Geeta Pasi, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY:  Your visit comes at the one-year 
anniversary of the Caretaker Government, which is struggling 
to rehabilitate areas of the country devastated 
by Cyclone Sidr and to address food security issues while 
preparing for nationwide elections by the end of 2008. 
Bangladesh largely met the emergency needs of victims of the 
November 15 cyclone, due in part to assistance from USAID and 
the U.S. Pacific Command.  The longer-term task of 
reconstruction will be particularly daunting given that 
Bangladesh is an impoverished country that already was hit by 
serious monsoon flooding earlier in 2007. These disasters 
come at a critical time for the Government, which has 
embarked on an ambitious political reform agenda that is to 
culminate in national elections by the end of next year. 
 
¶2. (C) SUMMARY CONTINUED: Bangladeshis have embraced 
Caretaker Government (CTG) reforms to address chronic 
political corruption and violence. Many high*powered 
politicians and businessmen have been arrested on graft 
allegations. Public support for the Government, however, has 
been weakened by spiraling inflation, which crop damage from 
the cyclone has exacerbated.  Politics is in a heightened 
state of flux, with two former prime ministers in jail facing 
trial on corruption charges and no politicians of similar 
stature coming to the fore. Behind the scenes, the army 
actively supports the Caretaker Government and appears to 
share our interest in seeing it succeed. We continue to 
emphasize the need for the Government to adhere to its 
election roadmap and to international norms of justice and 
human rights, while also addressing the basic needs of 
Bangladesh's population.  We also continue to encourage 
dialogue among the Caretaker Government, political parties 
and the military to reach a consensus political vision for 
the way forward. END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------- 
CYCLONE RELIEF 
------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Cyclone Sidr slammed into the southern coast of 
Bangladesh on November 15, affecting the lives of 8.9 million 
people and resulting in as much as USD 2.3 billion in 
economic damage.  The Government of Bangladesh (GOB) 
estimates that as many as 3,400 people died; loss of life was 
mitigated by strengthened disaster preparation, a focus of 
USAID's efforts here.  (NOTE: 
Cyclones in Bangladesh of similar strength left 500,000 and 
100,000 dead in 1970 and 1991, respectively.  END NOTE.) 
Those who survived need food, water, shelter and a 
restoration of their livelihoods.  The cyclone damaged or 
destroyed over 1.5 million homes and more than 640,000 
hectares of crops. About 350,000 farm animals were lost, and 
95 percent of the fish and shrimp ponds that are the basis of 
the nation's lucrative aquaculture industry were 
damaged. 
 
¶4. (C) The U.S. government, including the U.S. military, has 
played a key role in assisting Bangladesh with disaster 
relief and management before, during and after Cyclone Sidr. 
In the past, USAID provided disaster management assistance to 
Bangladesh that was important for warning residents about the 
cyclone's approach and sheltering people when the cyclone 
made landfall.  Immediately after the cyclone struck, the USG 
provided USD 19.5 million in emergency relief as well as 
desperately needed airlift to deliver food, water and 
clothing to remote areas. Operation Sea Angel II was a 
success, both in its mission to provide humanitarian 
assistance and disaster relief and in highlighting strong 
U.S. relations with a moderate Muslim nation. 
 
¶5. (C) Now that the immediate crisis has passed we are 
focused on longer-term reconstruction and rehabilitation. 
USAID is proposing the USG continue its cyclone relief 
efforts with an additional USD 115 million over the next 
three years to help rebuild agriculture and aquaculture 
industries, reconstruct rural electrification networks, and 
mitigate future disasters.  We also are recommending an 
emergency allotment of 100,000 metric tons of food to assist 
Bangladesh with food security; the nation's food stockpiles 
could be depleted by spring as Bangladesh struggles to meet 
the medium-term needs of cyclone victims. 
 
-------------------------------- 
THE POLITICAL SCENE 
-------------------------------- 
 
DHAKA 00000015  002 OF 003 
 
 
 
¶6.  (C)  The Caretaker Government (CTG) came to power in 
January 2007 as political violence was spinning out of 
control in the run-up to scheduled elections later that 
month. The CTG, made up of 10 non-political advisers and 
strongly supported by the military, imposed a state of 
emergency and began cracking down on endemic political 
corruption and violence.  The crackdown initially won broad 
public support, but frustration with the CTG spilled onto 
the streets in late August when a dispute at Dhaka University 
between students and soldiers became a rallying point for 
thousands of Bangladeshis disaffected by inflation, other 
economic woes and restrictions on political activity.  The 
CTG stopped the protests by imposing a curfew backed up by a 
show of force from the army.  Government leaders acknowledged 
privately to us and others the need to stick to the elections 
roadmap, to open up political discourse, and to communicate 
more effectively with the public. 
 
¶7.  (C) Bangladeshis welcomed in September an easing of the 
ban on politics and the initiation of formal dialogue between 
the Election Commission and the parties on political reform. 
The relaxation of the ban threw internal party disputes into 
sharp relief. The most visible struggle is within the 
Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), which governed the 
country from 2001 to 2006 under former Prime Minister Khaleda 
Zia.  When jailed in early September, Zia 
fired the reform-minded party Secretary General and replaced 
him with a loyalist.  In a contested party meeting in early 
November, two reformist party leaders were named acting 
chairman and acting secretary general, but the appointments 
have been hotly contested by Zia loyalists.  The Awami 
League, the other major party, has also experienced internal 
strife between reformers and loyalists to former Prime 
Minister Sheikh Hasina, but both sides accept her hand-picked 
protege as acting party president while she is in jail. Army 
Chief General Moeen Uddin Ahmed repeatedly has stated that he 
has no political ambitions, even as he assumes by default a 
higher public profile than the Chief Adviser, who is the top 
official in the CTG. On December 26, Education and Cultural 
Affairs Adviser Ayub Quadri took responsibility for the loss 
of two priceless artifacts en route to an exhibition in Paris 
and became the first of the CTG,s 10 advisers to resign. 
Since then, rumors of a broader Cabinet shuffle have 
intensified. 
 
¶8.  (C) In the midst of this political jockeying, voter 
registration continues in preparation for national elections 
scheduled by December 2008.  While the mechanics of holding 
elections seem to be largely on track, there is 
still much debate about an "exit strategy" for the Caretaker 
Government and the military, who want to ensure a newly 
elected government maintains reforms and refrains from 
settling scores. They fear retribution from a resurgent 
political class that has been the main target of the 
anti-corruption campaign. 
 
------------------------------------ 
ECONOMIC CHALLENGES 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶9. (C) Cyclone Sidr exacerbated worsening economic trends in 
Bangladesh.  Inflation was becoming a serious problem even 
before the cyclone destroyed crops, and investment was 
slowing as businessmen assessed the effects of the 
anti-corruption drive and the CTG,s implementation capacity. 
High world prices for food and fuel hit Bangladesh hard in 
the wake of severe monsoonal flooding in the summer.  Cyclone 
reconstruction is yet another enormous economic burden the 
current government must shoulder, albeit with assistance from 
the international community.  The Asian Development Bank 
estimates GDP growth in Bangladesh this year will fall below 
6.0 percent from last year's growth of 6.5 percent. 
Bangladeshis are excited about the potential for the proposed 
New Partnership for Development Act to boost the economy by 
providing duty-free access to the U.S. market for ready-made 
garments, which is the country,s main export. Bangladesh 
remains interested in receiving Millenium Challenge 
Corporation assistance but does not yet meet all of the 
eligibility requirements. 
 
---------------- 
YOUR VISIT 
---------------- 
 
¶10.  (C) Your visit to Bangladesh will underscore continued 
USG support for Bangladesh and the CTG as it works to respond 
 
DHAKA 00000015  003 OF 003 
 
 
to the cyclone's devastation and to keep the country on the 
path to free and fair elections by the end of 2008. 
Bangladesh is a moderate Muslim-majority nation that has 
played a responsible role internationally (especially in 
peacekeeping operations) and is going through a difficult 
political transition.  In your meetings you should focus on 
the importance the USG places on engagement and strengthening 
the bilateral relationship. You should also focus on our 
commitment to remain engaged 
in helping Bangladesh recover from the cyclone and prepare 
for future natural disasters. In your meetings with political 
party leaders you should encourage them to promote democratic 
reforms within their parties. You should 
also encourage political parties, the government and military 
to return Bangladesh to democracy and to rid the country of 
endemic political corruption and violence. 
Pasi