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P 111537Z JAN 08 ZDK CTG NUMEROUS SERVICES
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2043
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC 1426
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RHMFISS/CDR USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BELGRADE 000050 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O.12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KBTS KPAO SR MW KV
SUBJECT: SERBIAN PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGNS 
 
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SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Upcoming Serbian presidential elections pit the incumbent 
President Boris Tadic against Radical Party Tomislav Nikolic in a 
race that Tadic will likely win in the second round of voting.  The 
Radicals are running an effective campaign, however, presenting a 
kinder, gentler message that may capture support beyond the 
Radicals' core.  In general, the race has not yet captured the 
attention of the electorate.  To secure a second term, Tadic must 
mobilize his supporters -- greater in number, but traditionally less 
likely to vote than his opponent.  End Summary. 
 
CANDIDATES CAMPAIGN VIGOROUSLY, PUBLIC YAWNS 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) Nine candidates are running in Serbia's January 20 
presidential elections.  All analysts expect incumbent Boris Tadic 
(Democratic Party -- DS) and Tomislav Nikolic (Serbian Radical Party 
-- SRS) to finish as the top two candidates, with neither garnering 
the majority necessary for a first-round win.  Pollsters expect 
democratic parties will rally around the DS for a Tadic victory in 
the February 3 run-off.  Strategic Marketing polling, conducted with 
the support of the International Republic Institute (IRI), showed 
Nikolic beating Tadic 39% to 38% in the first round, and declared 
Tadic support at 42% to Nikolic's 34% in the second round, but the 
24% who remain undecided or unwilling to declare their candidate 
leaves the outcome very uncertain.  In recent elections, the SRS has 
succeeded in turning out a higher percentage -- as high as 80% -- of 
its supporters than the DS and other democratic bloc parties. 
 
¶3. (U) Despite billboards plastering the capital and candidates' 
rallies dominating evening television broadcasts, the public shows 
little interest in the elections.  According to Srbobran Brankovic, 
who heads the Medium-Gallup polling firm, the election is occurring 
at a time of "extreme dissatisfaction by the electorate."  Recent 
questioning on the part of the prime minister about whether Serbia 
should proceed with EU integration has "confused" the pro-Europe 
bloc of the Brankovic said, raising doubts about whether they should 
vote at all, he said.  Some Serbian contacts have even commented to 
emboffs that they are more interested in U.S. elections than their 
own. 
 
RADICALS: SELLING A SOFTER IMAGE; DRAWING CROWDS AND (LIKELY) 
VOTERS 
------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) The Radical Party (SRS) is running a more visible and 
active campaign than the Democrats, presenting a softer image that 
might appeal to voters beyond the party's core.  Under the slogan 
"All Heart" Nikolic smiles down from billboards and appears with his 
young grandson in TV spots.  Nikolic has stopped wearing his party 
badge showing Vojislav Seselj, the head of the Radical Party, 
currently on trial for war crimes in The Hague.  Nikolic told the 
press that he decided to forego the badge to attract voters who did 
not like Seselj but otherwise supported the party's message.  On 
January 8, Nikolic assured voters that his election would neither 
"topple" the current government nor would his party support waging 
war if Kosovo declares independence.  Serbia should "cut all 
economic ties" with Kosovo, Nikolic said, but "we will not send our 
children to war." 
 
¶5. (SBU) Analysts generally agree that the Radicals' campaign is 
effective.  Brankovic told poloff January 9 that he had been 
"impressed by Nikolic's campaign," calling him the "leader of 
political marketing" for his attempts to modulate the Radicals' 
image.  Marko Blagojevic, a pollster for the Serbian NGO CeSID, told 
poloff on January 9 that the Radicals have "done a good job" of 
drawing large crowds and running a visible campaign with a softer 
campaign message than previous years.  IRI representative David Bell 
told emboffs, January 9, that the Radicals aimed to pull non-SRS 
voters with this softer campaign, without alienating core 
supporters.  Bell noted that the Radicals were making corruption, a 
top concern of Serbians, one of their key themes against Tadic, 
tempering their rhetoric about defending Kosovo -- on which they 
find little fight among the candidates.  Bell said that poll and 
focus group participants see Nikolic as the most "honest, authentic" 
candidate -- by a large margin, lending credibility to his 
anti-corruption message.  Nikolic's January 6 statement that war 
crime fugitives, including Ratko Mladic, "would not fear arrest" by 
Serbia if he were elected president, however, represented his 
efforts to keep the nationalist party base satisfied. 
 
¶6. (SBU) The Radicals are drawing large crowds, and polls show their 
voters are the most committed.  Ten thousand supporters attended the 
largest Nikolic rally of the campaign, in Novi Sad on January 5. 
(The sizeable crowd is especially notable since Novi Sad Mayor Maja 
Gojkovic did not support or attend the event.)  The Radicals also 
held early rallies in central Serbia (in Kragujevac on December 24 
 
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and Leskovac on December 29) which also drew large crowds, according 
to first-hand reports.  The Radicals plan to hold their final rally 
on January 15 in Belgrade, and close their campaign in Kosovoska 
Mitrovica on January 16.  Brankovic said Radical supporters had 
"very strong voting discipline," suggesting they would vote in large 
numbers.  Blagojevic said that according to CeSID's latest polls, 
79% of Radical supporters, the highest of any party, were strongly 
committed to voting for Nikolic. 
 
TADIC: CONFIDENT OR COMPLACENT? 
------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (U) Though not as remarkable as the Radicals thus far, Tadic has 
waged an active, national campaign for support, and has held large 
rallies backed by high-budget advertising.  Tadic opened his 
campaign with a large rally in Novi Sad on December 22, followed by 
trips to Kragujevac on December 27 and a planned rally in Nis on 
January 12.  The DS will hold their final rally in Belgrade on 
January 16. 
 
¶8. (SBU) The Democrats' campaign focuses on general themes rather 
than specific issues and steered clear of negative campaign tactics 
and messages.  Billboards and advertisements feature a solemn, 
handsome Tadic with the motto, "For a Strong and Stable Serbia." 
Blagojevic told poloff the Democrats' approach was on "high 
politics," hoping voters respond to a sweeping message of preserving 
respect for Serbia's image in the world.  IRI's David Bell told 
emboffs that the DS tested more aggressive anti-Nikolic 
advertisements in focus groups, linking a Radical victory with a 
return to the 90s, but that viewers strongly rejected these "scare 
tactics."  According to Bell, voters thought Serbia had changed too 
much since the 90s to backslide. 
 
¶9. (SBU) While Nikolic holds the edge on authenticity and 
anti-corruption credibility, poll respondents see Tadic as more 
effective at attracting foreign investment, projecting a positive 
image of Serbia, ensuring Serbia's position in the world, and 
preserving stability -- issues that will influence how Serbians will 
vote.  Bell said that campaign messages which are optimistic about 
what the DS can deliver  -- European integration and more jobs -- 
resonated better with voters, but that the DS had not yet integrated 
such messages in their campaign.  Brankovic agreed, telling poloff 
that Tadic needs to be "more convincing" in his ability to show the 
electorate that Serbia has a European future. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Pollsters agree that the complacency of DS supporters is 
one of the major challenges for Tadic's reelection bid.  Both Bell 
and Blagojevic called the DS "overconfident," and suggested that 
party members blithely expect that, as minor democratic candidates 
depart the field after the first vote, their supporters will turn 
out to elect Tadic in second round.  Blagojevic said that his 
numbers indicated 50% of likely voters expected a Tadic victory, 
while only 34% expected Nikolic -- something which could boost 
Radical and dampen DS turnout.  Blagojevic said that Tadic's 
strength was in his "higher ceiling" for votes than Nikolic: while 
the Radicals can not reasonably expect more than 1.5 million votes, 
the democratic bloc has 1.8 million eligible voters.  Blagojevic and 
Brankovic's projections show Liberal Democrats (LDP) and G17 Plus 
voters will turn out in large numbers for Tadic in the second round. 
 DSS support is, at this point, uncertain.  Each pollster and 
several embassy contacts reported that the DS hopes that the EU will 
offer a Stabilization and Accession Agreement (SAA) on January 28, 
between election rounds, and give Tadic a major boost going into the 
February 3rd runoff. 
 
 
SECOND TIER PARTIES KEEPING THEIR VOTERS ACTIVE 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶11. (SBU) Three other parliamentary parties are running candidates 
for president: the Liberal Democrats, New Serbia (NS), and the 
Socialists (SPS).  Polls show the three with the same level of 
support, between 6-8% of likely voters.  Blagojevic said that the 
three were running to remain visible and to keep their voters 
involved.  Blagojevic expected LDP voters to support Tadic (73%) in 
the second round and 51% of Socialists planning to vote for Nikolic. 
 Brankovic had similar projections.  While they are not running a 
candidate, the G17 Plus has stayed in touch with its voters, sending 
out party mailings endorsing Tadic and urging its supporters to 
vote. 
 
¶12. (U) LDP candidate Cedomir Jovanovic launched an ambitious 
campaign on December 21 in Belgrade, drawing 2,000 supporters.  The 
LDP has two campaigns -- one with Jovanovic and one with other party 
officials and celebrity supporters -- which will cover all of Serbia 
until final rallies in Novi Sad (January 12), Nis (January 13), and 
Belgrade (January 15).  NS candidate Velimir Ilic began his campaign 
last, but received the endorsements of Prime Minister Kostunica and 
key Orthodox Church officials.  Ilic began his campaign with the 
 
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visit of monastery Milesevo where Bishop Filaret blessed him.  Ilic 
will host an Orthodox New Year celebration with a performance by 
popular turbo folk singer Ceca, on January 13, in his native Cacak 
in central Serbia.  SPS candidate Milutin Mrkonjic visited Slobodan 
Milosevic's grave, during his campaign, and praised the dictator as 
a "human giant."  Like Ilic, Mrkonjic visited the Milesevo monastery 
and received Bishop Filaret's blessing.  The SPS is planning a 
Belgrade rally on January 15 and its closing convention in 
Kragujavac on January 17. 
 
THIRD TIER PARTIES 
------------------ 
 
¶13.  (U) The goal of the final four candidates is to spotlight their 
parties' platforms.  Istvan Pastor, from the Hungarian coalition, is 
focusing only on Vojvodina and hoping to attract some non-Hungarian 
minority voters.  Milanka Karic, running in place of her exiled 
husband Bogoljub, is spending more of the Milosevic-era family 
fortune staging rallies around Serbia.  Two parties -- Jugoslav 
Dobricanin's Reformists and Marijan Risticevic's Popular Peasants, 
have no real campaigns and receive only government-mandated time on 
state television. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶14. (SBU)  We expect that Tadic will win this election, but he faces 
real and considerable challenges.  Events in or concerning Kosovo, 
support of coalition partners, and the effectiveness of the highly 
compressed election campaign period will influence Election Day 
results.  Kostunica's ultimatums to the EU on Kosovo clash with 
Tadic's pro-Europe platform create dissonance for Kostunica's 
supporters (the Democratic Party of Serbia) that might keep them 
from the polls entirely.  The Radicals are not a convincing 
alternative to the status quo, however unsatisfying, but Nikolic's 
softer, Seselj-free campaign is their most effective effort yet to 
do so.  The embassy, through assistance programs to IRI, NDI, and 
others, will assist democratic parties to get out the vote, in a big 
way.   End Comment. 
 
BRUSH