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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 000083 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: AFTER KOREAN REUNIFICATION 
TAGS: PREL KN KS CH JP
SUBJECT: CHINESE REACTION TO ROK ELECTION: MINIMAL IMPACT 
ON PRC-ROK RELATIONS 
 
Classified By: Classified by Political Regional Unit Chief Mark Tesone. 
  Reasons 1.4 (b/d). 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (C) While Lee Myung Bak's election as South Korea's next 
president ushers in a more conservative government, the 
election will not have a major impact on Sino-ROK relations, 
predicted one Chinese MFA official.  Lee's foreign policy 
will be more pragmatic and will focus on the PRC-ROK economic 
relationship and the U.S.-ROK alliance, contacts told us. 
Chinese contacts do not expect a change in the overall 
direction of South-North engagement, but one MFA official 
predicted that there may be an adjustment in the new 
administration's "enthusiasm level" on giving economic aid to 
the DPRK.  And, in contrast to the current administration, 
Lee may be more willing to raise thorny issues such as 
refugees or human rights directly with the DPRK.  One 
academic urged the United States to continue its own focus on 
"big issues such as denuclearization" and to encourage South 
Korea to take a similar approach.  The bilateral economic 
relationship is the foundation of the PRC-ROK relationship, 
noted one Korea-watcher, especially since China is a 
"lifeline" for the ROK economy.  End Summary. 
 
Chinese MFA: No Major Changes 
----------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) While Lee Myung Bak's election as South Korea's next 
president ushers in a more conservative government, it will 
not have a major impact on China-ROK relations, said Fang 
Kun, Deputy Director of the MFA's Asian Department.  South 
Korea and China normalized relations 15 years ago and the two 
countries have close cooperation within the Six-Party 
process, the United Nations and at ASEAN.  Fang agreed with 
the general consensus of most political analysts and believes 
that Lee's foreign policy will be more pragmatic than 
President Roh's. 
 
¶3. (C) There may be some subtle changes in South-North 
interaction, said Fang, but he sees no change to the overall 
direction of Six-Party Talks.  There may be an adjustment in 
the new administration's "enthusiasm level" on giving 
economic aid to the DPRK, but the ROK will ultimately end up 
giving the same amount of economic aid to North Korea as 
before, he said.  While the current government actively 
"sought opportunities" to provide aid to the North, Lee may 
begin to set conditions on the provision of aid.  When asked 
about the flurry of inter-Korean economic agreements signed 
since the October summit, Fang predicted that Lee might 
tinker with the details but will largely honor those 
agreements. 
 
A Pragmatic Foreign Policy 
-------------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) During the course of his election campaign, Lee 
promised that his foreign policy would be less ideological 
and more pragmatic, said Piao Jianyi, Deputy Director of the 
Center for Regional Security Studies at the Chinese Academy 
of Social Sciences.  This slogan was neither interesting nor 
newsworthy, complained Piao.  All leaders eventually take 
into account their country's national interests and core 
values.  Look at President Roh, said Piao.  President Roh may 
have criticized the United States during his own inauguration 
ceremony, but after political realities set in, Roh learned 
that he could not ignore U.S. views.  Piao highlighted the 
U.S.-ROK agreements on U.S. troop withdrawal and the Free 
Trade Agreement as areas where Roh displayed pragmatism and 
downplayed ideology.  Piao expects Lee to be no different in 
looking after South Korea's national interest. 
 
¶5. (C) China Reform Forum Senior Research Fellow Yu Meihua 
does not foresee many changes on the foreign policy front and 
predicts that Lee is likely to focus on more pragmatic issues 
such as the ROK-PRC economic relationship.  Although Lee has 
promised to repair and emphasize the U.S.-ROK alliance, Yu 
said that it is likely that South Korea will want to postpone 
the 2012 scheduled U.S. troop withdrawal, especially if North 
Korea slows down the denuclearization process. 
 
South-North Engagement 
---------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) One area where Lee will likely differ from Roh is the 
issue of South-North engagement, said Piao.  He noted that 
under the current administration, South Korea often abstained 
on UN measures critical of North Korea's human rights 
situation in order to avoid provoking the DPRK.  Lee, 
however, may be more willing to raise thorny issues such as 
refugees or human rights directly with the DPRK.  Piao urged 
 
BEIJING 00000083  002 OF 002 
 
 
the United States to continue its own focus on "big issues 
such as denuclearization and a Northeast Asia peace 
structure" and to encourage South Korea to take a similar 
approach.  China hopes South Korea will continue to focus on 
the bigger picture of denuclearization and that it will not 
divert its focus to "smaller issues," said Piao. 
 
Economics are Foundation of Bilateral Ties 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶7. (C) The ROK and China have a very close relationship in 
terms of economics, culture and even have a budding security 
relationship, said First Secretary Yong-hyon Kim of the ROK 
Embassy.  The ROK will continue to deepen its trading 
relationship with China, said Kim, and the new administration 
will not change its policies towards China.  According to 
Piao, the close bilateral economic relationship is the 
foundation of PRC-ROK ties.  China is South Korea's largest 
export market and a "lifeline" for the ROK economy, said 
Piao.  Nevertheless, there may be a slowdown in ROK 
investment to China due to rising labor costs, warned Piao. 
South Korean conglomerates will continue to invest in China, 
but smaller ROK enterprises may begin to relocate to cheaper 
markets such as Vietnam. 
 
¶8. (C) Piao described the explosive growth in 
people-to-eople contact between South Korea and China s 
"surprising."  There are currently 700,000 outh Koreans 
residing in China and this couldgrow to 1 million in just a 
few years.  He added that there are 4.8 million visits each 
year between the two countries.  While China is a diverse 
nation, it is "odd" to have so many South Koreans put down 
roots in China, Piao said. 
RANDT