VZCZCXRO3402
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHIHL RUEHKUK
DE RUEHGB #0021/01 0021823
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P 021823Z JAN 08
FM AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5096
INFO RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000021 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/02/2018 
TAGS: ECON ETRD EFIN PREL MARR ENRG MOPS NBTS IZ
SUBJECT: DPM TO AMBASSADOR: "THERE IS NO POLITICAL WILL" 
 
REF: BAGHDAD 00003 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
¶1. (S) Summary.  Deputy Prime Minister Barham Salih spiced a 
30 December meeting with Ambassador and CG Petraeus with 
complaints that his colleagues in government lacked the 
political will needed to steer the country away from civil 
war in 2008.  He avoided being drawn into any constructive 
discussion of trying to launch the New Year with an ambitious 
legislative agenda.  However, he did commit to make personal 
efforts necessary to address pressing problems of the removal 
of radioactive materials from Tuwaitha, conduct his own 
anti-corruption conference, and resolve problems of Turkish 
electricity supplies to Dohuk province.  End Summary. 
 
"Making Government Work" 
------------------------ 
 
¶2. (S) Ambassador Crocker met with DPM -- and Acting Prime 
Minister -- Barham Salih on December 30, accompanied by CG 
Petraeus, EMIN, and DCG LtGen Rollo.  Ambassador and CG 
sought to encourage the DPM to embrace a wide-ranging effort 
to start 2008 as the Year of Making Government Work.  He 
hoped that, upon the return of President Talabani to Baghdad 
from holiday in Sulaymaniyah (2 or 3 January, per DPM), and 
the PM from medical tests in London (date unknown), a quorum 
could quickly be achieved in Councils of Ministers and 
Representatives (CoM and CoR, respecitvely).  Ambassador 
stressed that that it would be imperative for the GoI to 
prove itself able of conducting the business of the country, 
in drafting and passing urgent legislation, pushing services 
out to the people, taking control of the country's security, 
re-energizing the Legislative Preparatory Committee -- A Year 
for Iraqi Institutions. 
 
¶3. (S) DPM responded that 2008 would either be the Year of 
Success, or the Year of Disaster, if Iraq squanders the gains 
made in security.  "If there is no political will, the 
Legislative Preparatory Committee is a waste of time -- and 
there is no political will."  Ambassador asked him what he 
saw as the alternative.  DPM responded, "The issue is 
political will.  We can go through the motions, put check 
marks in boxes, but that will all be window-dressing." 
Ambassador expressed the hope that smart people in positions 
of influence do recognize what's at stake, and that the DPM 
was not throwing up his hands in surrender, to which the DPM 
replied only "I've made clear my opinion ..."  The CG 
suggested that passage of legislation on accountability, the 
justice system, and budget would be needed within days, not 
weeks.  The DPM offered that the amnesty law is in draft, and 
the budget well along, but expressed little enthusiasm for 
"the other stuff, like the oil law." 
 
SOFA and Other 
Priority Issues 
---------------- 
 
¶4. (S) Ambassador brought up the subject of the Status of 
Forces Agreement (SOFA) security portion of the Strategic 
Framework Agreement (SFA).  He noted that Iraq has only one 
more year in special status under the UNSCR and encouraged 
the DPM to find a way to get down to serious business on the 
SFA, stressing that getting the right people in the room from 
the beginning would be critical.  The DPM agreed, emphasizing 
that those involved must have to have full authority to 
negotiate.  Ambassador pointed to the problems of services, 
of unemployment, and of the situation in Basra, and suggested 
that the DPM search for ways to drain some of the animosity 
out of the political climate.  Ambassador said he would push 
hard, as leaders returned, for the different parties to 
return to the project of governing, and stressed the 
importance of the first meeting of political leaders not 
"imploding."  DPM responded that he hoped it would be 
possible to bring up the SFA in the first week in which the 
President, PM, and CoR are all in Baghdad.  He then stated, 
"We could have a real civil war if we don't get the politics 
right.  This won't be a conflict with Al Qaeda -- this will 
be civil war." 
 
National Investment Law 
and Commission 
------------------------ 
 
¶5. (S) Ambassador noted that the new nominee for head of the 
National Investment Commission appeared to be on track for 
eventual confirmation.  DPM said he was not acquainted with 
the nominee, having met him only once, but had heard both 
good and indifferent things about him.  "Some say, he's 
worked only for government his whole professional life -- how 
can he promote private investment?" he wondered.  He stated 
that, even without formal CoR confirmation, the Investment 
Commission Head nominee could begin work.  Ambassador urged 
 
BAGHDAD 00000021  002 OF 002 
 
 
that the CoR move quickly to confirm, nonetheless. 
 
Anti-Corruption 
Conference 
---------------- 
 
¶6. (S) DPM confirmed that, despite the absence of the PM, he 
intended to keep to the scheduled January 3, 2008 date for 
the GoI's anti-corruption conference, which he intended to 
use to establish unambiguous procedures through which to 
confront the problem in Iraq. 
 
Dohuk Electricity 
Cut-Off Threat 
------------------ 
 
¶7. (S) DPM stated that the CoM had approved the same day (30 
December) renewal of the electricity delivery contract with 
Turkey, under same terms, for the next six months.  He said 
payment of the existing $20 mn float charge (referred to as 
"arrears") will be made, and that this should resolve for the 
immediate term the crisis in Dohuk. 
 
Tuwaitha Radioactive Materials Shipment 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (S) Ambassador thanked the DPM for efforts to push removal 
of irradiators and yellow cake uranium materials from Iraq 
within the next days.  DPM sought verification that of 
actions immediately required: Ministry of Foreign Affairs 
notification to IAEA of intention to break seals; GoI 
instructions to the Iraqi Facilities Protection Force to 
allow the 90-plus member technical team access to specific 
buildings on the Tuwaitha site to pack the materials for 
shipment; and formal GoI authorization for all pertinent 
materials to be removed from the site and the country.  He 
promised to push the process forward. 
 
COMMENT 
-------- 
 
¶9. (S) DPM Barham Salih seemed particularly glum in the 
meeting, countering most suggestions for the need for 
energetic efforts to bring true governance to Iraq with dire 
predictions of civil war generated by rivalries and the 
absence of political will to do right by the country.  This 
may have been connected to his expressed lack of joy at being 
Acting Prime Minister while the PM addressed his medical 
concerns -- an event that interrupted his plans to pass the 
New Year in Sulaymaniyah with his immediate family, forcing 
him to decamp to Baghdad.  END COMMENT. 
CROCKER