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P 190858Z DEC 07
FM AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8423
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE PRIORITY 0052

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 YAOUNDE 001479 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/C AND AF/PD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/17/2017 
TAGS: CM PGOV PINR PREL SOCI
SUBJECT: CAMEROON: IS BIYA PREPARING TO CHANGE THE 
CONSTITUTION FOR A THIRD TERM? 
 
REF: (A) YAOUNDE 1308 (B) YAOUNDE 865 
 
Classified By: Poloff Linnisa Wahid for reasons (1.4.b & d) 
 
¶1. (U)  This is an action message (see para 9). 
 
¶2.  (C) Summary.  Almost immediately after President Paul 
Biya returned from his October 26 meeting with French 
President Nicholas Sarkozy, officials at all levels of the 
ruling Cameroon People's Democratic Movement (CPDM) began 
calling for a constitutional amendment to remove term limits. 
 Such an amendment would allow Biya to stay in power beyond 
2011, which will mark the end of his second seven-year term 
under the current constitution.  Key ministers, including the 
Ministers of Finance and Special Duties at the Presidency, 
joined the chorus of support for changing the constitution, 
which could be done with a simple majority vote in the 
National Assembly (where the CPDM has an overwhelming 
majority).  Biya has deflected questions about the issue, 
perhaps in an effort to keep people guessing and preserve his 
power in the final years of his current presidential term. 
While there have been some voices in opposition to an 
amendment, overall public apathy and a weak civil society 
would make it relatively easy for President Biya to seek a 
third term.  USG pressure at this time could help impact 
Biya's decisionmaking.  End Summary. 
 
Background 
---------- 
 
¶3. (U) Section 6 of the 1996 Constitution states that the 
president is elected for one term of seven years and is 
eligible for re-election once.  Although he has been in power 
for 25 years, President Biya was elected under the new 
constitution in 1997 and reelected in 2004, therefore making 
him ineligible to seek a third term.  When asked about the 
2011 elections during an October 30 France24 interview on his 
recent trip to Paris, Biya stated that the 2011 presidential 
elections were certain; however, he considered them to be far 
in the future, adding that Cameroon has other priorities such 
as the fight against corruption, HIV/AIDS and poverty and 
that questions about the 2011 elections were premature (ref 
A). 
 
Ruling Party Calls for Amendment 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Immediately after Biya's interview and the November 
6 nationwide celebration of Biya's 25 years as president, 
regional bodies of the ruling CPDM throughout the country 
began calling for a constitutional amendment to remove the 
presidential term limits.  On December 4, the CPDM Central 
Committee formally endorsed their appeals.  A number of 
ministers have also voiced their support, including the 
Minister of Finance and the Minister of Special Duties. 
 
Some Voices in Opposition 
------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Some CPDM members, opposition party leaders, NGO 
officials, the independent media and others in civil society 
have openly opposed amending the constitution.  Hilaire 
Kamga, a prominent civil society leader, told Poloff that if 
there were a referendum to amend the term limits of the 
president, President Biya would &suffer the worst defeat of 
his life8.  Kamga added that that civil society was using 
petitions and campaigns to oppose amending the constitution. 
He stated that so far there were about 9,000 signatures on 
petitions opposing an amendment.  Another civil society 
leader, Pauline Biyong, President of the "Patriotic Citizens 
Collectives" began a campaign entitled "Don't Touch My 
Constitution," encouraging Cameroonians to focus on President 
Biya's own stated priorities of fighting against corruption, 
HIV/AIDS and poverty instead of focusing on changing the 
constitution.  The Sultan of Bamoun, an important traditional 
leader, also publicly opposed a constitutional amendment to 
benefit one person. 
 
¶6. (SBU)  In a December 12 newspaper article, outspoken CPDM 
parliamentarian, Adamou Modi, stated that he would mobilize 
forces and encourage them to vote against an amendment to the 
constitution.  He said that many members of the National 
Assembly agreed with him, although he thought "they are not 
bold enough to voice their opposition".  Modi is well known 
for publicly voicing his opposition to the reelection of the 
President of the National Assembly, CPDM representative 
Cavaye Yeguie Djibril.  Former Minister of Education and key 
architect of the 1996 Constitution, Professor Joseph Owona, 
reportedly stormed out of a CPDM Central Committee meeting 
arguing that any genuine desire for a constitutional 
 
YAOUNDE 00001479  002 OF 003 
 
 
amendment should come from the people. 
 
Next Steps 
---------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) In a December 10 meeting with Poloff, Deputy 
President of the Constitutional Committee in the National 
Assembly Zondol Hersesse outlined three possible scenarios 
for amending the constitution to allow Biya to run for a 
third presidential term.  First, one third of the National 
Assembly could propose a bill that would remove the 
presidential term limits.  The bill would be tabled in the 
general body of the National Assembly and would become law 
with a simple majority vote, according to Hersesse.  Second, 
President Biya could propose a bill to the National Assembly 
and a simple majority vote would be needed to amend the 
constitution. (Note: In the 180-member National Assembly, 153 
members belong to the CPDM. End Note.) Third, President Biya, 
in consultations with the President of the Constitutional 
Council and the President of the National Assembly, could 
propose a national referendum.  A referendum on an amendment 
would need a simple majority of the votes cast to pass. 
(Note: The Constitutional Council has not yet been created. 
According to Vacancy Laws, the Supreme Court would assume the 
Council's duties. End Note.)  According to Hersesse the 
President has not made a decision on whether to amend the 
constitution; he is currently "listening to the people." 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶8. (C) The outpouring of senior government and party support 
for changing the constitution is probably an orchestrated 
campaign from the top to enhance Biya's effectiveness by 
keeping people guessing about his future plans.  As President 
Biya told former U.S. Ambassador Niels Marquardt, "In 
Cameroon anyway, once the people know when you are leaving 
or, worse, who will replace you, you will wield no more 
power" (ref B).  Biya is enigmatic, has allowed more 
political pluralism, and may not press the issue at this 
time.  He deflected the question in his Paris interview and 
has said nothing during the debate over the past month.  His 
close advisors have similarly deflected discussions of the 
topic in our private conversations.  Biya's support in the 
National Assembly is even more overwhelming than it was 
before the July/September legislative elections.  The 
opposition is timid and largely powerless and the public 
reaction is cynical or indifferent to the political 
situation.  The GRC particularly values its relations with 
the United States and France.  Our efforts to convince Biya 
not to change the term limits in the constitution (possibly 
working with the French and others), in private meetings and 
public settings, if done skillfully, could impact his 
decision making at this critical juncture. 
 
Action 
------ 
 
¶9. (SBU) Post proposes the following talking points to be 
used in public comments and private discussions on the issue 
of changing the constitution.  We would appreciate Department 
guidance on these points: 
 
-- I was pleased to hear President Biya say when he was in 
France that public attention is best focused on more pressing 
concerns than constitutional reform, such as the fight 
against corruption, poverty and HIV/AIDS.  I think that is 
the right focus for Cameroon and is essential to generating 
economic growth, strengthening democracy and improving the 
lives of all Cameroonians. 
 
-- Ultimately, the decision on whether to amend the 
Constitution is for the people and the political process of 
Cameroon to decide.  Constitutional change requires serious 
deliberation and should reflect the input of all elements of 
society.  Constitutional reform must aim to be for the 
benefit of the society as a whole and one should carefully 
weigh the long term implications of any proposed change. 
 
-- In principle, every political system stands to benefit 
from new leadership and the new ideas it brings.  Term limits 
and leadership change, at least every decade or so, are 
healthy ways to ensure democratic political renewal. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
YAOUNDE 00001479  003 OF 003 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GARVEY