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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TOKYO 005626 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/19/2017 
TAGS: PREL SK JA
SUBJECT: INITIAL JAPANESE REACTIONS TO SOUTH KOREAN ELECTION 
 
Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Joe Dononvan for reasons 1.4(b) 
and (d) 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY:  Japanese MOFA officials are pleased by the 
election of Lee Myung Bak as South Korea's next president and 
are hopeful that relations between Tokyo and Seoul will 
improve during his administration.  They expect him to focus 
primarily on improving the South's economy and believe he 
will downplay nationalistic and historical complaints about 
Japan.  There is a good possibility, they believe, that if 
invited, Prime Minister Fukuda would attend President Lee's 
inauguration. Academics and Korea-watchers also agree, in 
general, that relations between Japan and Korea are poised to 
improve.  END SUMMARY. 
 
-------------------------------- 
MOFA PLEASED BY ELECTION RESULTS 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C)  Japanese MOFA officials are pleased by the election 
of Lee Myung Bak to be South Korea's next president, 
according to Takeshi Akahori, Director of MOFA's Japan-Korea 
Economic Affairs Division.  He told Embassy Tokyo Political 
Officer that "frankly, both Japan and the U.S. have been 
waiting for this."  In public, Japan will say that the ROK is 
an important neighbor which shares the same basic values as 
Japan, and that Tokyo looks forward to forging a good 
relationship with the new leadership.  In private, Tokyo's 
message to Seoul will be that Japan hopes for a 
"forward-looking, future-oriented" relationship with the Lee 
administration. Akahori said Japan has been disappointed by 
the Roh administration's tendency to raise points of friction 
and to always blame former Prime Minister Koizumi for all 
that is wrong with the relationship.  Accordingly, 
expectations for Lee are high. 
 
¶3. (C) Akahori focused on the fact that during Lee's campaign 
speeches he pledged that his main focus will be, first, on 
improving the economy, and second, improving relations with 
Korea's Asian partners, beginning with Japan.  MOFA takes 
this as a message of Lee's willingness to improve relations. 
That said, Akahori pointed out Lee said very little 
explicitly about Japan during the campaign, hoping to avoid 
accusations that he is too "pro-Japanese" due to the fact 
that he was born here.  Observers in MOFA expect, said 
Akahori, that Lee will first focus on improving relations 
with the United States and will turn later to Japan.  In 
fact, Akahori continued, Lee is not pro-Japan.  He may have 
developed a number of business partners here over the years, 
but does not feel any strong connection to Japan, nor has 
Japan ever been one of his priorities.  This view was 
mirrored in a press report by Nikkei pointing out that Lee 
has had very limited contacts with Japanese politicians over 
the years. 
 
¶4. (C) The Japanese believe that Lee will remain true to his 
pledge to focus first on the economy.  Akahori predicts one 
of Lee's first priorities will be to finalize the U.S.- Korea 
FTA, and that he will follow this up by focusing on FTAs with 
the E.U. and China.  Next on his list would be working to 
negotiate an FTA-EPA with Japan.  Akahori is of the opinion 
that Lee's "747" pledge is too ambitious and that his 
promises to address the issue of poverty will collide with 
his need to cultivate strong ties with business interests in 
order to realize his goal of attaining a steady seven percent 
 
TOKYO 00005626  002 OF 003 
 
 
GDP growth rate.  However, Akahori is hopeful that Lee can 
revive the Korean economy and that relations with Japan can 
help play a positive role in this.  If this is the case, Lee 
will have less reason to revert to playing the nationalistic, 
history-based Japan card that is often relied upon by Korean 
leaders to revive flagging support. 
 
¶5. (C) On the Six Party Talks, Akahori said Japan believes 
Lee's approach seems to be well balanced and much closer to 
Japan's than was the case with President Roh.  While 
improving relations with the North is important, Lee's 
primary priority is the denuclearization of the peninsula, 
and his proposal that the international community contribute 
USD 40 billion in aid to the North when it denuclearizes is 
realistic.  Akahori also wondered aloud whether Lee's 
approach to the North and the fact that his views on this 
issue seem more in synch with those of Japan and the U.S. 
might lead to the revitalization of the Trilateral 
Coordination Group (TCOG) which has become moribund since 
¶2003. 
 
----------------------------------------- 
ACADEMICS ALSO PREDICT IMPROVED RELATIONS 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) Academics we've spoken with echo Akahori's views. 
Former Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs and current Fellow 
at the Japan Center for International Exchange, Hitoshi 
Tanaka, told Embassy Tokyo Bilat Unit Chief that relations 
between South Korea and Japan have soured recently not so 
much due to personalities as to divergences on policy goals 
toward the DPRK.  He is hopeful that with Prime Minister 
Fukuda's more pragmatic approach to this issue, and to Lee's 
more moderate approach that relations can improve.  He also 
believes that U.S. - ROK - Japan relations need to improve. 
While not fond of the TCOG process, he asserts that we need 
to strengthen the trilateral relationship in order to better 
coordinate policy, not only on the DPRK, but also on wider 
regional issues, such as China, regional architecture, and 
the maintenance of peace and stability. 
 
¶7. (C) Hajime Izumi, Korea expert and professor at Shizuoka 
University, also agrees that Lee's election should make it 
easier to work on a trilateral basis.  He observed to us that 
although Lee is not well known in Japan as a politician, his 
pragmatic, business-oriented background will likely lead him 
to take steps to improve relations.  Izumi predicts Lee will 
not make any major changes in policy vis-a-vis the DPRK.  He 
also remarked on the lack of nationalism or 
anti-America/anti-Japan sentiment during the election 
campaign and said he believes the younger generation in Korea 
is not so wrapped up with historical issues but rather more 
interested in steps Lee can take to improve the economy. 
Izumi also pointed out the although Lee was born in Japan, he 
was a leader in anti-Japan normalization demonstrations in 
¶1964. However, he subsequently had a change of heart. Izumi 
related that during a conference to commemorate the 30 year 
anniversary of the demonstrations, Lee told him that the 
demonstrations had been a mistake, and that normalization of 
relations with Japan and the resulting economic assistance 
was the trigger for Korea's "economic miracle."  Finally, 
Izumi hopes that although Lee seems less likely to play the 
anti-Japan card that many of his predecessors have, he is a 
bit nervous about the upcoming 100th anniversary in 2010 of 
Japan's annexation of Korea, and hopes emotions will not run 
 
TOKYO 00005626  003 OF 003 
 
 
hot in either country. 
 
¶8. (C) Keio University Professor Masao Okonogi shares Izumi's 
views that the younger generation in Korea is not caught up 
with the historical aspects of relations with Japan and that 
growing business, personal, and cultural ties between the two 
countries is leading to better relations.  He believes Lee 
will want to improve ties with Japan and told us, as a member 
of PM Fukuda's foreign policy advisory panel, he has urged PM 
Fukuda to take advantage of this opportunity and to attend 
Lee's inauguration. (NOTE: There has already been speculation 
in the press that Fukuda will attend the inauguration. 
MOFA's Akahori, for his part, questioned why Korean 
presidents invite foreign dignitaries to their inaugurations, 
but said that if Lee does invite Fukuda, he thinks there is a 
"good chance" Fukuda would attend.  END NOTE.) 
 
¶9. (C) Seo Won-Cheoi, Director-General of the Association of 
(South) Koreans Resident in Japan's International Relations 
Bureau told us improved Japanese-Korean relations do not 
hinge on Lee's election.  Rather, he asserted, it is up to 
the Japanese to decide on the nature of the relationship.  He 
said relations were fine until former Prime Ministers Koizumi 
and Abe came along, so now it is up to PM Fukuda to either 
fix or further ruin the bilateral relationship.  He was very 
critical of Japan's (and America's) tough stance on the DPRK, 
which he asserted have hurt the interests of many South 
Koreans living here. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶10. (C)  Lee's election as president of Korea, coupled with 
PM Fukuda's less dogmatic approach to the South, offers the 
possibility of further rapprochement between the two 
neighbors.  Lee will focus on growing the economy and is 
likely to look to Japan to participate and assist, albeit 
indirectly, in this process.   As long as the economy 
improves, he will have little need to shore up support by 
appealing to nationalist sentiments by bashing Japan.  We 
sense that Japan will work toward improved relations both 
bilaterally and, with us, trilaterally. END COMMENT. 
 
 
 
 
SCHIEFFER