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DE RUEHVJ #2623/01 3411405
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R 071405Z DEC 07
FM AMEMBASSY SARAJEVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7483
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JCS WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUZEJAA/USNIC SARAJEVO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SARAJEVO 002623 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR(DICARLO), EUR/SCE(HOH/FOOKS/STINCHCOMB); 
NSC FOR BRAUN; OSD FOR BIEN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR BK
SUBJECT: BOSNIA - PREVIEW OF DECEMBER 9 RS SPECIAL 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On December 9, Republika Srpska (RS) will 
hold a special election for RS President to fill a position 
vacated by the September 30 death of former RS President 
Milan Jelic.  While there are several strong candidates, most 
analysts agree that none of them are likely to defeat the 
overwhelming favorite, Rajko Kuzmanovic.  Kuzmanovic, an 
elderly academic, is the candidate from RS PM Milorad Dodik's 
ruling party, the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats 
(SNSD), which dominates RS politics.  Kuzmanovic has pledged 
to get back competencies the RS has transferred to the state. 
 Under RS election law, the top vote winner, which will be a 
Serb, becomes President, and the top two vote winners from 
the other two constituent peoples (a Bosniak and a Croat) 
become Vice Presidents.  The question of whether the top 
Bosniak and Croat candidates will replace the current two RS 
Vice Presidents is unclear.  The incumbents maintain that 
their mandates remain validate despite Jelic's death.  This 
issue will likely end up in the RS Constitutional Court. 
Assuming no unanticipated challenges, the new President will 
take office once the results are certified, which in the past 
has happened within about a month. END SUMMARY. 
 
The Election 
------------ 
 
¶2. (SBU) Because of the sudden death of RS President Milan 
Jelic on September 30, the Republika Srpska (RS) will hold a 
special presidential election on Sunday, December 9.  There 
are ten candidates, including eight Serbs, one Croat and one 
Bosniak.  The new presidential mandate will last until the 
next general election in 2010.  The leading candidate is 
76-year old Rajko Kuzmanovic, who was nominated by RS PM 
Dodik's party, SNSD.  Other top contenders include Mladen 
Ivanic, president of the Party of Democratic Progress (PDP) 
and Ognjen Tadic, representing the Serb Democratic Party 
(SDS).  Due to the tremendous popularity of the SNSD in the 
RS, Kuzmanovic is widely expected to succeed Jelic as 
president.  The real competition will be between Ivanic and 
Tadic for second place. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Turnout is expected to be low.  After ballots, 
including absentee votes, have been tabulated the state 
Central Election Commission (CEC) must certify election 
results within 30 days.  The winner of the election will be 
inaugurated upon certification of the elections.  During 2006 
elections preliminary results were available by midnight of 
election day.  The pace of certification depends the number 
of absentee ballots and whether there are any legal 
challenges to the elections.  In the 2006 election the CEC 
certified the RS Prime Minister and Presidential elections 
after 27 days. 
 
The Serb Candidates: Kuzamanovic 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Academic Rajko Kuzmanovic is a professor of law, 
former dean of the Faculty of Law in Banja Luka, former 
rector of the Banja Luka University, and a member of the RS 
Academy of Arts and Sciences.  Kuzmanovic was the president 
of the RS Constitutional Court from 1998 to 2002, and is one 
of the foremost constitutional law experts in the RS. 
Kuzmanovic has said he will focus on strengthening the RS and 
its legal regime, and that he will try to get back 
competencies that the RS has transferred to the central BiH 
government.  Before his nomination, Kuzmanovic was not a 
member of the SNSD, but he was close to Dodik. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Many loyal SNSD voters feel let down by SNSD,s 
choice of presidential candidate and believe the party should 
have selected a younger, more dynamic person with recent 
political experience.  Some of these voters could either 
abstain or consider other candidates, but the vast majority 
are likely to remain loyal to SNSD.  There has been 
speculation that Dodik struggled to find a candidate, since 
most of the effective SNSD politicians already hold key 
positions, and the alternatives were either not personally 
loyal to Dodik and/or vulnerable to allegations of 
corruption.  The Democratic Peoples Alliance (DNS) and the 
Socialist Party -- both SNSD coalition partners in the RS 
government -- are backing Kuzmanovic instead of running their 
own candidates. 
 
SARAJEVO 00002623  002 OF 003 
 
 
 
The Serb Candidates: Ivanic 
--------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) In addition to being president of the PDP -- which 
he established in 2000 -- Mladen Ivanic, aged 49, is a deputy 
in the BiH House of Peoples and an economics professor at the 
University of Banja Luka.  He is the most prominent and 
experienced politician in the race.  Ivanic served as RS PM 
from 2000 to 2002 and as BiH Foreign Minister from 2003-2007. 
 On October 23 the BiH Prosecutor's office indicted him on 
corruption charges related to Srpske Sume (RS Forests). 
Ivanic has announced that, if elected, his long term 
priorities are to defend the constitutional position of the 
RS and to deal with social issues such as unemployment and 
pension reform.  He has said that he wants the RS to move 
towards the EU, but will not allow the RS to lose its 
constitutional status under Dayton. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Ivanic's short term goals are to "set right" the 
Milan Jelic Scholarship Foundation, which has been mired in 
controversy since it announced the recipients of scholarship 
funds.  He also wants to provide health centers throughout 
the RS with equipment for early breast cancer detection. 
Ivanic,s pitch to the voters is that only the PDP cares 
enough about the RS Presidency to put forward a real 
candidate (i.e., the president of its party).  He claims that 
he is close enough to Dodik to be able to work with him 
constructively, while at the same time maintains a degree of 
separation as a leader of an SNSD coalition partner. 
Although Ivanic is clearly the heavyweight of the race, 
SNSD's grip on RS politics makes it extremely unlikely that 
he would defeat Kuzmanovic. 
 
The Serb Candidates: Tadic 
-------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Ognjen Tadic, aged 33, is a young, energetic lawyer 
from Banja Luka running as the SDS presidential candidate. 
He is currently a deputy in the RS National Assembly.  His 
campaign is based on a &patriotic agenda," with calls for 
the departure of the Office of the High Representative (OHR) 
and the return of transferred competencies.  Tadic has drawn 
attention to government spending on luxuries, such as the new 
government building, while common people are struggling to 
survive.  He is an eloquent and dynamic speaker and does well 
in debates and TV appearances.  He has not been tied to 
corruption.  Although Tadic is popular in the RS, the current 
all time low SDS opinion ratings make it difficult for Tadic 
to win.  Tadic was previously a prominent member of the Serb 
Radical Party and was known for his nationalist positions. 
 
The Serb Candidates: The Others 
------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) There are five other Serb candidates for the 
Presidency, none of whom are expected to generate serious 
support.  Slobodan Popovic, of the Social Democratic Party of 
BiH (SDP) is an ethnic Serb but his campaign is focused 
mainly on RS Bosniaks, the traditional electoral base of the 
SDP.  He supports the continued presence of the OHR and a 
High Representative (HR) with full Bonn powers.  Mirko 
Blagojevic, representing the Serb Radical Party Dr. Vojislav 
Seselj, is an eccentric former boxer.  His antics -- 
including his ejection from a local TV studio for refusing to 
remove his tall black fur hat with a Russian coat of arms for 
an interview, and his promise to purchase a Russian car if 
elected, "to show his loyalty to Russia" -- have provided 
comic relief for the campaign.  Blagojevic has criticized the 
RS government for making decisions that are "harmful to the 
RS," and used his campaign to promote books by Hague indictee 
Vojislav Seselj.  Krsto Jandric is president of the marginal 
Peoples Democratic Party (NDS), a splinter group from the RS 
Socialist Party.  Jandric is a medical doctor and his 
priorities are economic development and education.  Nikola 
Lazarevic of the European Ecology Party (E-5) and Dragan 
Djokanovic, an independent, are almost completely unknown. 
Djokanovic has announced plans to "remove" Dodik immediately 
after being sworn in. 
 
The Bosniak and Croat Candidates 
 
SARAJEVO 00002623  003 OF 003 
 
 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) Under RS election law, the candidate who receives 
the most votes in a presidential election becomes President. 
The two top vote-getters from the other two constituent 
peoples (in this case Bosniaks and Croats) become RS Vice 
Presidents.  However, the law is silent on the current 
situation involving the death of a sitting president.  The RS 
already has a Croat and a Bosniak vice president, both of 
whom maintain that their mandates continue despite the death 
and new election.  Nevertheless, there is one Croat and one 
Bosniak candidate running in the current election.  There are 
conflicting views about whether they should receive the vice 
presidential mandates, per the election law, or if the 
current Vice Presidents will stay in place.  The issue is 
likely to go to the RS Constitutional Court. 
 
¶10. (SBU) The only Croat candidate is Anton Josipovic, of 
Work for Progress (RZB).  He is a well known and successful 
former boxer with no political experience.  Josipovic says he 
will focus on reducing unemployment and protecting domestic 
production.  The sole Bosniak candidate is Nedzad Delic, of 
the BiH Democratic Party of the Disabled.  Delic is severely 
disabled, is restricted to a wheelchair, has limited mobility 
and almost no ability to speak.  He makes public statements 
through an interlocutor, who "interprets" what Delic wants to 
say.  According to the interlocutor, Delic is running for 
president to raise awareness of the difficult conditions in 
which the disabled live in the RS and BiH. 
 
The Campaign 
------------ 
 
¶11. (SBU) Under BiH election law, the presidential campaign 
lasts for fifteen days.  The campaign began on November 24, 
when billboards immediately sprung up across the RS promoting 
Kuzmanovic, Tadic and Ivanic.  Sine then, the candidates have 
been on the campaign trail, making daily visits to cities, 
towns and villages around the RS for town hall meetings and 
interviews.  At every stop, top stars of the SNSD, including 
Dodik, speaker of the RS National Assembly (RSNA) Igor 
Radojicic, Serb member of the BiH Presidency Nebojsa 
Radmanovic, and (resigned) Chairman of the BiH Council of 
Ministers (CoM) Nikola Spiric have been at Kuzmanovic's side, 
and they have even done most of the speaking on his behalf. 
During several town hall meetings, Dodik said it is time that 
foreigners leave BiH (referring to OHR), saying that most of 
their decisions have been harmful to the RS.  Kuzmanovic 
himself is a slow and weak speaker, and had difficulty 
keeping up with his opponents in the presidential debates. 
Tadic and Ivanic have come across as poised and charismatic. 
During the campaign stops on behalf of Kuzmanovic, Dodik 
urged RS voters to turn out "massively" at the polls to, 
"show the world their support for the RS." 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶12. (SBU) A few months ago, one of our interlocutors told us 
that the SNSD could nominate "a spoon" for president, and 
that candidate would still win.  Although the general public 
in the RS seems disappointed, and perhaps even insulted, that 
Dodik did not pick a better candidate, the majority of voters 
are likely to vote for Kuzmanovic anyway, out of loyalty to 
the SNSD and to Dodik.  COMMENT. 
 
ENGLISH