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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 OTTAWA 002233 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR USOAS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/06/2017 
TAGS: PREL PGOV CA AF PK XB XL XM XK
SUBJECT: U.S.-CANADA POLICY PLANNING TALKS: AFGHANISTAN, 
THE AMERICAS, ASIA, AND TRANSFORMATIONAL DIPLOMACY 
 
Classified By: DCM Terry Breese, reasons 1.4 (b) (d) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: U.S. and Canadian Policy Planners met 
November 29-30 to discuss the broad strategic outlook over 
the next 25 years (with specific reference to the National 
Intelligence Council's 2020 and 2025 projects) and a range 
of international and regional issues that represent policy 
priorities for both countries and opportunities for closer 
collaboration.  Both sides agreed on the importance of 
continued cooperation in Afghanistan, particularly with 
respect to the border, NATO burdensharing, and the work of 
the senior international coordinator.  Regarding the 
Americas, the discussion focused on new openness to outside 
initiatives in Mexico, the continued fragility of the 
Caribbean, and the need to maintain focus on strengthening 
the democratic charter in the OAS.  Canadian policy planners 
expressed a desire to continue to coordinate closely as 
events unfold in Cuba, even though our approaches there 
differ, and indicated that Canada would follow the U.S. lead 
on the issue of Asian architecture and North Korea.  Canadian 
participants conveyed interest in comparing notes in greater 
detail with the U.S. and UK on the issues 
surrounding transformational diplomacy, noting the sometimes 
varying approaches with which we face similar challenges. 
End Summary 
 
¶2. (SBU) S/P Director Dr. David Gordon met November 29-30 in 
Montreal with Assistant Deputy Minister for Strategic 
Policy Drew Fagan in annual Policy Planning talks.  Also in 
attendance on the U.S. side were S/P Deputy Director 
William McIlhenny, S/P Member (Asia) James Green, DCM Terry 
Breese, and Deputy Pol/C Keith Mines.  Accompanying Fagan 
were Graham Shantz, Director General of the Policy Planning 
Bureau, Ron Garson, Director of Policy Planning, and Sarah 
Fountain Smith, Director of the U.S.-Canada Relations Bureau. 
 
 
AFGHANISTAN -- BURDENSHARING, BORDER, AND INT. COORDINATOR 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
¶3. (C) Fagan provided an overview of Canada's fiscal, 
political, and strategic calculus in the Afghan mission. 
Canada has already spent over C$3 billion in Afghanistan 
since 2002 and lost 74 lives, but in general the government 
feels positive about the progress there.  He explained that 
the Afghan mission has changed the way Canadians see 
international engagement; the pride Canadians feel in the 
mission and the popularity of Chief of Staff General 
Hillier is something that Canada has not seen in decades. 
Fagan said it will continue to be a difficult mission 
politically, however, and managing public support will be a 
constant challenge.  Even among the 50% of the populace 
that supports the mission, there is the sense that Canada has 
simply done enough now and it is time to pass the mission off 
to another NATO ally.  Shantz suggested that a key question 
for Canada goes beyond Afghanistan; policy 
makers are asking the question "what is NATO for if not 
this?"  The strategic challenge as Canadians see it is that 
the NATO Afghan mission is a series of short-term commitments 
with extensive caveats, making long-term progress difficult 
to ensure.  It will be devastating for NATO as an 
Qto ensure.  It will be devastating for NATO as an 
organization if it cannot succeed there.  Both sides agreed 
that in Afghanistan the whole is less than the sum of the 
parts. 
 
¶4. (C) There was several areas where the two sides agreed 
there should be close collaboration on Afghanistan.  First, 
is on the Afghan-Pakistan border, a special interest of 
Canada's because of its responsibility for Kandahar province. 
 Canada has been active in developing new programs and 
infrastructure to help secure the border and is looking at 
new approaches to economic development there.  Canada 
appreciates our help to date and seeks close collaboration on 
this key initiative.  Second is shaping the mandate and 
getting the right person as Senior International Coordinator. 
 Canada recently brought in Paddy Ashdown to discuss his 
experience in the Balkans and how the lessons learned there 
could be adapted to pulling together the various 
international players to increase synergy in Afghanistan. 
Canada could be a valuable ally on this issue.  Third is in 
pushing for greater burden-sharing among NATO allies.  Canada 
has the credibility among NATO middle powers of supporting 
 
OTTAWA 00002233  002 OF 003 
 
 
the mission despite rising casualties and its voice in 
pushing for greater troop levels and fewer caveats could 
resonate. 
 
THE HEMISPHERE -- SEEKING SYNERGY 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) Fagan said the government's current foreign policy 
could be couched as the triple A's -- the Arctic, 
Afghanistan, and the Americas.  He gave an overview of how 
the shift in attention to the Western Hemisphere is playing 
out, including new emphasis on free trade negotiations, 
increases in engagement with Latin American leaders, a new 
hemispheric security initiative, and shifts in foreign aid to 
the region.  The increase in emphasis on Latin America, 
Fagan said, has been controversial domestically because it is 
seen as a zero sum game with Africa.  But Fagan opined that 
this is largely an elite controversy and does not play out in 
public opinion. 
 
¶6. (C) Fountain Smith commented on some areas where there may 
be room for further collaboration in the hemisphere.  First 
is Mexico, where Canada is working on small engagement 
projects to help improve governance.  The willingness of 
Mexico to accept security help from the U.S. is a major shift 
that Canada has noted.  There may be other areas for Canada 
to engage with Mexico in the future and, given the scale of 
our commitment, we should cooperate closely.  Second is the 
Caribbean, which figured prominently in Prime Minister 
Harper's July trip.  There are long-standing historical ties 
between Canada and the Caribbean, and Ottawa is trying to 
increase its engagement there.  Shantz emphasized that many 
Caribbean countries are more fragile than they appear, and 
Fountain Smith noted the toxic mix of security deportees 
returning to the region after engaging in criminal activity 
in North American while the best and brightest are drawn off 
to the U.S. and Canada to live.  Canada has a variety of aid, 
educational, and governance programs there, with a special 
emphasis on Haiti.  Third are the areas where Canada is being 
drawn into trilateral engagement with countries such as 
Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay, who want to partner on 
development and democratization projects in the region, 
especially in Haiti.  There may be areas for close 
coordination with us on this.  Fourth, the Canadian side 
agreed with our assessment that we need to try to keep the 
democratic charter energized at the OAS. 
 
CUBA -- COORDINATING OUR DIVERGENCE 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (C) Fagan briefly outlined Canada's Cuba policy, which is 
a two-tracked approach to engage with the government 
while also reaching out to students and dissidents.  Canada 
is pleased with the level of talks we have had on Cuba and 
finds value in continuing to discuss and coordinate our 
divergent approaches.  Fagan said Canada was pleased with 
the outcome of the OAS General Assembly, noting U.S. support 
for an opening on NGOs and Canada's efforts to 
bolster the role of civil society in support of the 
Democratic Charter.  Fagan suggested that we continue to 
work together to find ways to operationalize and systematize 
engagement with civil society, and to continue 
to inject "high-level oxygen" into the mix that will put 
Qto inject "high-level oxygen" into the mix that will put 
pressure on the Cuban regime. 
 
ASIA -- TAKING THE U.S. LEAD 
---------------------------- 
 
¶8. (C) Fagan said there was concern in the Prime Minister's 
Office about the "profusion of architecture" in Asia, but 
DFAIT's message to the PM has been to use APEC as a one-stop 
shop -- the opportunity to engage broadly in an efficient 
way.  Canada considers U.S. engagement in APEC to be critical 
for North America, and our interlocutors warmly welcomed the 
U.S. commitment to APEC.  Canada is looking, Fagan said, for 
free trade deals in Asia and is in the middle of negotiations 
with Singapore, South Korea, and Vietnam.  On North Korea, 
Canada is watching closely to see how the situation unfolds, 
and will work in support of our efforts there. 
 
TRANSFORMING DIPLOMACY 
---------------------- 
 
OTTAWA 00002233  003 OF 003 
 
 
 
¶9. (C) The two sides engaged in a discussion of how we are 
reorganizing our foreign assistance, diplomatic 
deployment, and inter-agency integration to manage the new 
global challenges.  The Canadians were very interested in 
our explanation of recent changes in foreign assistance, 
which are driven by the same challenges they face, and our 
effort to reposition diplomats where they can do the most 
good.  Canada, Fagan said, is engaged in a major redeployment 
exercise of its own to get more of its officers overseas, but 
to do so it has been involved in a 
significant effort to better explain its role to the Cabinet. 
 He noted that Canada has also been comparing notes with the 
British on these issues, and suggested that it might be 
interesting to engage in trilateral discussions on lessons 
learned and new approaches to a more active foreign policy. 
 
¶10. (U) At a luncheon November 30 hosted by former Canadian 
Ambassador to the U.S. Raymond Chretien, Dr. Gordon 
discussed the methodology and purpose of the National 
Intelligence Council's "Mapping the Global Future" project 
with an invited group of fifteen prominent Canadian 
academics.  After reviewing U.S. perceptions of broad trends 
over the next several decades, he engaged in a lengthy Q and 
A session covering a wide range of foreign policy issues. 
Later, Gordon met with U.S. Consul General Mary Marshall and 
organizers of the annual "Conference de Montreal" economic 
forum to discuss their summer 2008 program and prospective 
U.S. participants. 
 
¶11. (U)  S/P has cleared this message. 
 
Visit our shared North American Partnership blog (Canada & Mexico) at 
http://www.intelink.gov/communities/state/nap 
 
BREESE