VZCZCXRO2326
OO RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHSK #1064/01 3651252
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 311252Z DEC 07
FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6769
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 001064 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2017 
TAGS: PREL ODIP OFDP APER BO
SUBJECT: LUKASHENKO THREATENS TO EXPEL AMBASSADOR 
 
REF: A. MOORE-OPERATIONS CENTER E-MAIL 12/30/07 
     ¶B. KRAMER-MOORE E-MAIL 12/30/07 
 
Classified By: Charge Jonathan Moore for reason 1.4 (d). 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  (C) While addressing the press following a holiday visit 
to an orphanage December 30, Belarusian head of state 
Aleksandr Lukashenko threatened to expel the Ambassador 
should the USG impose additional economic sanctions on 
Belarus.  GOB contacts have been reached by the Embassy but 
have not provided any comment; Charge confirmed that 
additional sanctions were to be expected in the absence of 
any progress from the regime.  He also noted that any move to 
expel the Ambassador would lead to a reciprocal step by the 
USG.  Please see a partial transcript of Lukashenko's remarks 
(para 2) and draft press guidance (para 4).  End summary. 
 
Lukashenko Promises Harsh Response If Sanctions Increased 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
¶2.  (SBU) As reported ref A, Aleksandr Lukashenko visited an 
"SOS" orphanage in Borovlyani December 30 and took some 
questions afterwards from the press.  In response to a 
question from a journalist on the likelihood of additional 
U.S. sanctions on Belarus, which the Ambassador had discussed 
during an on-the-record roundtable with independent media 
December 13, Belarus' dictator promised a fierce response. 
His tirade was subsequently broadcast twice on state 
television and was covered widely on the internet.  According 
to multiple sources, Lukashenko said: 
 
"A question -- What have we done bad to the Americans?  What 
have we done to the Americans that they would impose 
sanctions on us?  We don't get mixed up in American internal 
affairs, do we?  We don't disturb them; let them not disturb 
us.  We have proposed to them dozens of times, 'Let's discuss 
things and cooperate normally.  If there are problems, let's 
solve them.'  But they don't want that.  They want to 
overwhelm the country and trample the people.  I won't let 
them." 
 
"What have we done bad to the Americans?  Some ambassador, 
like the American Ambassador, is going to sit around and blab 
about expanding sanctions.  We will react in the harshest 
fashion, in all areas, politically, economically, and in 
other areas.  As soon as it hits our economy substantially, 
the first who will be tossed out is the U.S. Ambassador.  She 
attends opposition get-togethers and talks about potential 
economic sanctions for Belarus, which makes the situation 
more tense.  I say this publicly.  So, let the U.S. 
Ambassador calm down and mind her own business or she can 
lose her position here in Belarus ahead of schedule." 
 
"I want to warn the Americans for the first and last time 
that we will react quite fiercely, and, trust me, they will 
lose their positions not only in Belarus." 
 
"We will survive.  We will do without the American dollar. 
The Americans don't like what we are doing with their 
currency -- we can get rid of the dollar.  But they 
constantly try to harass us; it won't work.  You see, they 
don't like it that we are working in Venezuela.  OK, give us 
a chance and we will work in America.  We go where we are 
welcome and where we can receive the biggest effect for our 
economy from our presence." 
 
Presidential Administration, MFA Have Little Response 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶3.  (C) Charge called Presidential Administration Foreign 
Policy Advisor Valentin Rybakov for a confirmation and 
comment December 30.  Rybakov was unaware of the statements 
and did not respond.  On December 31, Charge spoke separately 
by phone with both Rybakov and MFA North America Department 
Head Sergey Sergeyev to relay the following points, 
consistent with ref B: 1) Ambassador Stewart had stated on 
December 13 -- and been quoted accurately -- that the USG 
would continue to expand sanctions against the Belarusian 
regime in the event that there was no progress on democractic 
reforms; 2) any step taken to expel Ambassador Stewart from 
Belarus would be met with a reciprocal step to remove 
Belarusian Ambassador Khvostov from the U.S.; and 3) that EUR 
DAS Kramer planned to relay the same points to Ambassador 
Khvostov in Washington.  Both Rybakov and Sergeyev were aware 
of Lukashenko's statements, but could not provide any 
response other than to thank Charge for his points; Sergeyev 
pledged to share them with MFA leadership as soon as possible 
(December 31 is a local holiday). 
 
Draft Press Guidance 
 
MINSK 00001064  002 OF 002 
 
 
-------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Post proposes the following draft press guidance 
for response to press inquiries on Lukashenko's December 30 
threats. 
 
-- We are aware of the statements made by Aleksandr 
Lukashenko to the Belarusian press December 30 on U.S. 
sanctions against the Belarusian regime. 
 
-- The U.S. Ambassador to Belarus, Karen Stewart, noted 
December 13 that if the Lukashenko regime failed to release 
political prisoners and take other steps towards democratc 
reform, additional sanctions would be imposed. 
 
-- This is a clear expression of our consistent policy on 
Belarus and we stand by Ambassador Stewart's statement. 
 
-- The keys to improved U.S.-Belarus relations remain the 
Belarusian regime's release of all political prisoners and 
its respect for basic democratic norms, including free 
elections and freedom of expression and association. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶5.  (C) While Lukashenko's December 30 remarks have every 
appearance of being spontaneous and uncoordinated, they 
nevertheless reflect his growing unease at the possibility of 
additional U.S. economic sanctions.  (Note: In comparison, as 
reported previously, most GOB interlocutors have gone out of 
their way to claim that the sanctions have had no impact. 
End note.)  That Lukashenko blames Belarus' "shift from the 
dollar," or its relations with Venezuela for these sanctions, 
is as absurd as it is groundless.  The fact that Lukashenko 
continues to look for external, geopolitical factors to 
explain U.S. sanctions is just more evidence that he is 
unprepared to take the political steps necessary to roll them 
back. 
MOORE