VZCZCXRO7782
RR RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHLS #1327/01 3441249
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 101249Z DEC 07
FM AMEMBASSY LUSAKA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5208
INFO RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP 0055
RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LUSAKA 001327 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2017 
TAGS: PGOV PINR ZA
SUBJECT: MMD PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESSION -- MANY EYES ON THE 
PRIZE 
 
REF: A. LUSAKA 1303 
     ¶B. LUSAKA 1182 
     ¶C. LUSAKA 1127 
 
LUSAKA 00001327  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador C. Martinez, reasons 1.4 (b),(d) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary. Contenders to be the Movement for Multiparty 
Democracy presidential candidate for 2011 include party 
stalwarts, Mwanawasa loyalists, and outsiders.  Sitting Vice 
President Banda is a long shot.  With national elections 
still years away, the current strong contenders are those 
closest to President Mwanawasa: First Lady Maureen Mwanawasa, 
Home Affairs Minister Ronnie Shikapwasha, and former Vice 
President Lupando Mwape.  End summary. 
 
¶2. (U) Introduction: As President Mwanawasa begins the second 
year of his second and final five-year term in office, 
ambitious party cadres within the ruling Movement for 
Multiparty Democracy (MMD) have already begun to turn their 
focus to the 2011 presidential election. The MMD's firm grip 
on the levers of power in Zambia make it the party to beat in 
¶2011.  The party's national congress, tentatively scheduled 
for 2010, would be the natural forum for anointing 
Mwanawasa's successor both as president of the MMD and of 
Zambia.  President Mwanawasa in recent months has stirred the 
pot of speculation by saying that he would not rule out a 
candidate from outside the party (ref C), then announcing 
that he had asked the MMD National Executive Committee (NEC) 
permission to name his preferred successor during its next 
meeting (ref B).  More recently, party spokesperson Benny 
Tetamashimba said that the MMD had frozen campaigning for the 
party presidency and that President Mwanawasa would continue 
to be party president until the party identified a candidate 
for the 2011 presidential election.  The party's presidential 
candidate, Tetamashimba said, would become the 
party's president as well.  Whatever the process for choosing 
a candidate turns out to be, there are many candidates 
waiting in the MMD wings.  Following is a brief survey of 
potential MMD candidates. 
 
------------- 
MMD Stalwarts 
------------- 
 
¶3. (U) Dr. Katele Kalumba:  Kalumba is the MMD National 
Secretary and a member of parliament for a remote district 
 
SIPDIS 
in Luapula province.  A former Minister (Health, 1996-98), 
Home Affairs (1998-99) and Finance (1999-2001), during the 
Chiluba administration, Kalumba was elected National 
Secretary in 2005 despite opposition from President Mwanawasa 
 
SIPDIS 
and the NEC.  Kalumba has a solid base of support from his 
home Luapula province and wields enormous authority and 
influence over party structures and budgets, but he is also 
facing seventeen charges of corruption relating to abuse of 
office and theft of public funds during his time as Minister 
of Finance.  Kalumba also stands accused of diversion of 
public funds amounting to two million Kwacha (approximately 
USD 500,000) that were siphoned out of the National Assembly 
accounting system.  Both cases against Kalumba are currently 
making their way through the courts, but he reportedly is 
setting up campaign teams in Luapula, Northern and Copperbelt 
provinces.  Kalumba has an undergraduate degree in social 
work from Washington University in St. Louis and a doctorate 
from the University of Toronto. 
 
¶4. (SBU)  Michael Mabenga:  Mabenga is the National Chairman 
of the MMD and a member of Parliament from the Western 
province constituency of Mulobezi.  As Defense Minister 
during President Mwanawasa's first term of office, Mabenga 
was removed from office in August 2003 following a Supreme 
Court decision affirming a finding of electoral malpractice 
committed by Mabenga during his 2001 election to Parliament. 
Mabenga was accused of diverting 30 million Kwacha 
(approximately USD 7500) in Constituency Development Funds to 
finance his campaigns.  Despite a Supreme Court order that 
Mabenga be investigated and prosecuted for the 
misappropriation of funds, police did not act on the case. 
In 2005, President Mwanawasa announced that the government 
could not proceed with the case against Mabenga because of 
the death of a key prosecution witness.  Interestingly, when 
Finance Deputy Minister Jonas Shakafuswa recently said that 
MMD leaders who were linked to corruption allegations should 
resign because they were bringing the party's name into 
disrepute, Mabenga reacted by saying that he was not affected 
by that statement because he had neither been arrested nor 
convicted in a court of law (Comment: Such are the narrow 
definitions of "clean" in the Zambian political context). 
 
---------------------------- 
Mwanawasa Insiders/Loyalists 
---------------------------- 
 
LUSAKA 00001327  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) Lupando Mwape:  Mwape is currently Zambia's 
ambassador to China and previously served as Vice President 
of Zambia from October 2004 to October 2006.  Mwape is 
unfailingly loyal to President Mwanawasa, who saved Mwape 
from political ignominy after he lost the election for MMD 
provincial chairman for Northern Province in 2004.  Mwanawasa 
subsequently appointed Mwape as provincial minister and four 
months later as vice president.  Mwape lost his bid to retain 
his seat in the National Assembly in the September 2006 
tripartite elections, which meant he could not continue 
serving as Vice President.  His failure to win a constituency 
raises some questions about his electability to national 
office. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Inonge Mbikusita Lewanika:  Lewanika is currently 
serving as the Zambian Ambassador to the United States, a 
position she has held since 2002.  She has been nominated by 
Zambia as a candidate for Chair of the African Union 
Commission.  Lewanika began her career with UNICEF, ending up 
in 1990 as the Regional Adviser for Women and Child 
Development for West and Central Africa.  A founding member 
of the MMD in 1991, Lewanika resigned from the party in 1993 
when allegations of corruption began to surface against the 
ruling party.  In 1996 she formed Agenda for Zambia, which 
she represented in Parliament until 2001.  She ran as a 
presidential candidate on the Agenda for Zambia ticket in 
2001, but lost to Mwanawasa, who subsequently nominated her 
to be Ambassador for OAU Affairs within the Foreign Ministry 
and then as Ambassador to the United States, where she has 
been recognized as one of the more engaged and effective 
Ambassadors from the region.  Lewanika went to high school 
and college in the United States and holds a Ph.D. from New 
York University.  Her father was once the Paramount Chief, or 
Litunga, of the Lozi people in Western Province.  Lewanika 
has a reputation as an honest leader who is dedicated to 
poverty reduction, but her tribal background in the Western 
Province Royal Establishment and extensive amounts of time 
spent outside of Zambia may work against her. 
 
¶7. (U) Ronnie Shikapwasha:  Shikapwasha currently serves as 
Minister of Home Affairs and has been a prominent member of 
Mwanawasa's cabinet since 2003.  He is a first cousin to the 
First Lady and is a member of the president's kitchen 
cabinet of advisers.  Shikapwasha originally served as 
Minister of Home Affairs from 2003-2005, then as Minister of 
Foreign Affairs from 2005-October 2006 before returning again 
to Home Affairs.  Shikapwasha has a military background, 
having retired from the Air Force as a Lieutenant General in 
¶1997.  He is also an ordained Minister, but somewhat 
ironically has been very open about being a womanizer. 
 
¶8. (C) Maureen Mwanawasa:  Maureen Mwanawasa has always been 
a strong force in her husband's decision-making, and a 
recent up-tick in her media profile has led to speculation 
that she might be planning to try and follow in her husband's 
footsteps.  A lawyer by profession, Mwanawasa established the 
Maureen Mwanawasa Community Initiative (MMCI) in 2002 to 
assist the rural poor and vulnerable women and children.  In 
2002, a scandal emerged involving preferential contracting 
procedures in an oil deal involving Zambezi Oil.  The First 
Lady, who had been involved in the deal and who opposition 
leader Michael Sata alleged was pushing for oil imports from 
Iran, quietly withdrew from the deal and the furor died down. 
 Sata supposedly has some damaging information about the 
First Lady's involvement in the Zambezi Oil scandal, and in 
2005 he blamed a critical fuel shortage in Zambia on 
Mwanawasa's oil dealings. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Mwanawasa's work through the MMCI has been 
criticized as primarily politically motivated, and in 2002 
President Mwanawasa intervened to block a parliamentary probe 
into his wife's use of aid donations.  Concerns about 
the motives behind MMCI donations in key constituencies 
immediately before by-elections led to changes in the 
electoral code of conduct in 2006.  Elections observers noted 
that the changes in the code didn't make much difference, as 
liberal MMCI donations showed up in Northern and Luapula 
provinces where the MMD was in close races with the 
opposition Patriotic Front.  Mwanawasa's work with MMCI has 
given her wide name recognition and enabled her to establish 
links with the rural poor.  In the last presidential 
election, the bulk of the MMD's support came from poor rural 
areas. 
 
¶10. (SBU) In December 2006, Mrs. Mwanawasa received the 
International Hope Award from the YWCA in New York in 
recognition of her work on HIV/AIDS, and in January 2007, she 
was elected president of the Organization of African 
First Ladies' Associations.  She also just participated in 
the Saddleback Summit in the U.S. to commemorate World AIDS 
 
LUSAKA 00001327  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
Day.  Recent press coverage of Mrs. Mwanawasa donating water 
pumps (as a local Catholic bishop commented to poloff, "she 
was giving out seven foot-pumps - why bother covering such a 
non-event?"), and making appearances at traditional 
ceremonies have increased speculation that the First Lady is 
looking to make a run for president.  Mrs. Mwanawasa is 
also said to be consulting with party leaders and traditional 
chiefs about the possibility of running for president. 
 
------------- 
The Outsiders 
------------- 
 
¶11. (U) Clive Chirwa:  Chirwa recently emerged as an aspiring 
candidate, having joined the MMD only in September 2007. 
Chirwa is a college engineering professor who has lived in 
the UK for the past 17 years, and his announcement in 
November 2007 (ref A) that he would seek the MMD presidency 
ruffled feathers within the MMD.  Chirwa is a relative 
unknown and so far the only substantive issues he has raised 
for debate revolve around transportation and transportation 
infrastructure, his academic and consulting specialties. 
Chirwa's candidacy may have something to with 
the MMD's announcement that the party was freezing 
campaigning for the MMD presidency. 
 
¶12. (SBU) Nevers Mumba: Mumba is currently president of the 
Reform Party, which he formed in 2005.  Mumba has an 
interesting history, having gained public attention first as 
a television evangelist and then moving on to politics 
when God told him to save Zambia through the ballot box. 
Mumba founded the National Citizens Coalition (NCC) in 2001 
and ran for president that same year, but garnered only two 
percent of the vote.  In 2003, he dissolved the NCC and 
joined the MMD; Mwanawasa promptly rewarded him by nominating 
him to be vice president after firing then-Vice President 
Enoch Kavindele due to concerns about his involvement in 
corruption.  While Mumba was a relative political unknown at 
the national level, his former party's platform of fighting 
corruption and graft made Mumba a natural to bolster 
Mwanawasa's own corruption fight.  In October 2004, however, 
Mwanawasa fired Mumba, ostensibly because Mumba made 
"embarrassing and careless" remarks about links between 
opposition parties and the Democratic Republic of Congo. 
However, many observers believed that Mumba was fired because 
of his clear ambition and popularity.  Mumba was expelled 
from the MMD in 2005 and formed the Reform Party, but he has 
met and mended fences with Mwanawasa since then.  Mumba has a 
small political base, however, and his history with the MMD 
is an obstacle to a serious run for the presidency on the MMD 
ticket. 
 
------------- 
The Long Shot 
------------- 
 
¶13. (SBU) Rupiah Banda:  Banda is currently serving as 
Mwanawasa's vice president.  A former Minister of Foreign 
Affairs and long-time United National Independence Party 
(UNIP) activist, Banda is 70 years old and was called from 
retirement by President Mwanawasa in 2006.  In contrast to 
Mwanawasa, Banda is dynamic, personable and charming, but 
he has very little support within the MMD (which he joined in 
2006) and his age is likely to be a factor against him (Note: 
the latter negatives are likely one reason Mwanawasa chose 
him as Vice President in the first place). 
 
¶14. (C) Comment:  Clearly there is no lack of presidential 
contenders within the MMD.  There is limited history 
to go on - Mwanawasa is the country's third president since 
independence, and in the last transition then-President 
Frederick Chiluba had the final word on his successor in 
¶2001.  After a rocky start with MMD cadres and a narrow and 
disputed in the 2001 elections, Mwanawasa has built support 
within the MMD and the population, and the MMD's more 
convincing wins in the tripartite elections are testament to 
Mwanawasa's gains.  At this point, Mwanawasa insiders such as 
Ronnie Shikapwasha, the First Lady, and Lupando Mwape appear 
to have the best chances of becoming the presidential 
candidate, but much can change in four years.  End comment. 
MARTINEZ