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DE RUEHCN #0298/01 3540302
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 200302Z DEC 07
FM AMCONSUL CHENGDU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2703
INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL CALCUTTA
RUEHCHI/AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI 0057
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUEHCN/AMCONSUL CHENGDU 3272

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 CHENGDU 000298 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/CM, G/SCT, AND DRL 
NSC FOR CHRISTINA COLLINS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  12/20/2032 
TAGS: PGOV ECON ELAB PHUM SOCI CH
SUBJECT: THE TAR'S FLOATING POPULATION, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND THE 
RAILROAD 
 
REF: (A) 2006 CHENGDU 934 (B) CHENGDU 297 (C) 06 CHENGDU 1232 (D) CHENGDU 83 (E) CHENGDU 285 
 
CHENGDU 00000298  001.2 OF 005 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: John Hill, Acting Consul General, Chengdu, 
Department of State. 
REASON: 1.4 (b), (d) 
 
 
 
¶1. (C) Summary:  The completion of the Qinghai-Tibet railroad 
has accelerated the outsider-driven development of the Tibet 
Autonomous Region (TAR).   Numerous official, academic, and 
other sources indicate that during at its peak the floating 
population is at least half of Lhasa's permanent resident 
population.  Lhasa's floating population is very largely ethnic 
Han from the Chinese interior, especially Sichuan.  Economic 
considerations as well as a rise in the numbers of tourists may 
be leading to increased use of the railroad to move PLA soldiers 
in and out of the TAR and use the Lhasa airport less.  Ethnic 
Tibetans worry that their culture and religion, long sheltered 
by the TAR's remoteness, are threatened now not only by 
religious and ideological conflicts but also by large and 
rapidly growing population inflows that abundant job 
opportunities, cheap airplane and train tickets and the rise in 
Chinese disposable incomes over the past decade have wrought. 
End Summary. 
 
TAR Economic Development Drew Many Migrants, Railroad Brings 
Many More 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C) China's economic investments in the TAR - an area that 
represents approximately one-fifth the total land area of the 
People's Republic of China (PRC) -- have been much higher per 
capita given the thinly-populated nature of the region than in 
other parts of the country.  Three thousand "Help Tibet Cadres" 
from the interior and billions of dollars in central government 
and provincial assistance money have poured into the TAR (ref 
A). In the decade before the opening of the railroad in 2006, 
these massive investments drew in large numbers of construction 
and other workers, mostly ethnic Han from the interior.  This 
brought not only massive upgrades to the TAR's infrastructure 
but more ethnic friction as well.  The opening of the 
Qinghai-Tibet railroad in July 2006 has accelerated the pace of 
the TAR's externally-driven development and modernization 
process. 
 
TAR Population Statistics and the "Floating Population" Concept 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
-------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) Many Chinese migrant workers, especially from neighboring 
Sichuan Province -- China's top exporter of migrant labor - have 
taken advantage of numerous construction projects in the TAR 
including the mammoth new railroad.  The impact of the Han 
Chinese in the TAR can be approached through the "floating 
population" (liudong renkou) concept used by Chinese social 
scientists to track the gross flows of not just migrant workers 
but also tourists, business travelers, religious pilgrims, etc. 
The concept of "floating population" in the TAR is best 
understood as a statistical construct meant to represent a 
relatively permanent population composed of a much larger number 
of temporary visitors.  Of course, some of these "temporary 
visitors" may stay for years, others for a few days only, but 
the "floating population" concept is essentially a snapshot of 
the number of outsiders in the TAR at any given time. Chinese 
urban population estimates throughout China, not just for the 
TAR, are often much too low because they do not include many 
hundreds of thousand or sometimes millions  of millions of 
migrant workers with rural registrations who actually live 
living temporarily or semi-permanently in the city. 
 
A Sensitive Subject 
----------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) When it comes to the TAR, this typical population data 
fuzziness is compounded by defensiveness about the very 
sensitive issue of ethnic Han migration into the TAR.  Chinese 
officials are reluctant to even hazard a guess on the proportion 
of ethnic Han working on this or that project.  Getting 
information on migration into the TAR from officials or open 
sources on the number of immigrants and their effect on the 
TAR's economy and culture is difficult. Nevertheless, based on 
our observations, anecdotal information, a close reading of 
local press sources, as well as a recent report on the subject 
by a Sichuan University academic (summary provided ref B), we 
have put together a picture of how the increase in the number of 
 
CHENGDU 00000298  002.2 OF 005 
 
 
 "outsiders" in the TAR, particularly temporary and long-term 
migrants, as well as tourists, are transforming the lives of 
ethnic Tibetans. 
 
¶5. (C) Development and the Qinghai-Tibet railroad are of course 
also changing the lives of millions of ethnic Tibetans in 
traditionally Tibetan areas outside the TAR (Note: Three million 
ethnic Tibetans (55% of China's 5.4 million ethnic Tibetan 
population (2000 census) live mostly in areas contiguous to the 
TAR in what is often referred to as "ethnographic Tibet."). 
This report narrowly focuses on these processes only within the 
TAR, which comprises about one-third (1.2 million sq. km) of the 
area of traditional Tibetan regions in China. 
. 
¶6. (SBU) According to 2007 official population figures, the 
TAR's permanent registered population was 2.81 million.  This 
number breaks down to 92% ethnic Tibetan, 5% ethnic Han and 3% 
other minorities.  Compare this with 1994 population estimates 
for the TAR: total population 2.32 million, comprised of 2.24 
million ethnic Tibetans (96.4%), ethnic Han 66,000 (2.8%), and 
18,000 other minority people (0.8%).  In other words, the 
official figures for the permanent registered population show a 
doubling of the proportion of ethnic Han over a 13-year period. 
The proportion of other minorities quadrupled although the 
numbers are quite small.  (Note: In a PRC academic conference on 
the future of Tibet held several years ago, one academic 
suggested that the migration of non-Han minorities to Tibet 
should be encouraged in order to take attention away from 
Han-Tibetan tensions.  End note.) 
 
¶7. (U) In 2005 according to official statistics, the TAR's 
population was estimated at 73.35% rural (2.02 million people) 
and 26.65% urban (740,000).  Since most migrant workers and 
tourists enter the TAR's urban areas, their impact on the TAR's 
urban population is likely to be relatively greater. 
 
How Many in the Floating Population? 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) There are a number of different Chinese official or 
press estimates of the size of the TAR's floating population and 
its various components: 
 
-- In 2005, the TAR Statistical Bureau estimated that the 
portion of the floating population from outside the TAR that had 
resided in the TAR for six months or more came to 7% of the 
officially registered population, double the number from five 
years before. 
 
-- Tourism to the TAR in 2006 rose 40% with the opening of the 
Qinghai-Tibet railway.  Affordable train tickets forced airlines 
to follow with unprecedented discounts on airfares to the TAR, 
drawing in still more tourists.  In 2000 there were 295,000 
tourist visits to Tibet; in 2005 there were 1.3 million 
tourists.  Tourist visits may reach 5 million in 2010.  (Huaxi 
Dushibao June 2006). 
 
¶9. (SBU) The Xinhua press agency reported in mid-December 2007 
that the number of tourists visiting the TAR during 2007 will be 
over 60 percent higher than in 2006.  This boosted tourism 
revenue by 73% to US$650 million and helped maintain the TAR's 
record GDP growth.  Accelerated development following the train 
construction and July 2006 opening pushed the TAR's GDP up 13.4 
percent in 2006, its fastest growth in a decade. 
 
¶10. (SBU) According to a 2006 TAR newspaper report, the TAR's 
floating population is growing at a 10% annual rate. 
 
¶11. (C) A Congen Chengdu contact who has lived in and regularly 
visited the TAR over the past two decades estimates that the 
long-term Han population of Lhasa is now probably about 40%. 
 
Sichuanese Most Numerous 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶12. (SBU) Sichuanese form a large part of the TAR's floating 
population: some Sichuan local governments organize groups of 
rural residents people to work in the TAR.  At the Sichuan-Tibet 
Labor Discussion Conference, Sichuan Vice Governor Zhang Zuohe 
said there are about 100,000 Sichuanese working in the TAR under 
labor contracts.  And according to a Sichuan Daily 2003 press 
report, "Everywhere in Tibet you see Sichuanese~ Of the 100,000 
Sichuan workers in Tibet, about 60% are in construction, 
restaurants, entertainment, clothing and travel industries." 
According to a 2006 press report, 60% of the merchants in Lhasa 
are from Sichuan.  Congenoffs have also observed numerous 
 
CHENGDU 00000298  003.2 OF 005 
 
 
Sichuanese immigrants in the TAR (ref C). 
 
¶13. (SBU) A TAR migrant worker study conducted in 2005 (before 
the completion of the Qinghai-Tibet Railroad) by Peking 
University researchers claimed: 
 
-- PRC census figures show that the permanently registered 
ethnic Han population of Lhasa's urban district rose from 29% in 
1990 to 34% in 2000, not including the many ethnic Han migrant 
workers. 
 
-- Thirty percent of the temporary migrants to Lhasa came from 
Sichuan Province, followed by Gansu with 24%.  Ethnic Tibetans 
from other parts of the TAR account for 14% of the Lhasa 
migrants. 
 
-- The origin of migrant workers varies widely in different 
parts of Lhasa.  While 32% of the Lhasa urban district migrants 
are from Sichuan Province, a September 2005 by the downtown 
Lhasa Bakhour Public Security Office estimated 70% of the 
migrants came from Sichuan Province. 
 
 (Source: Peking University demography professor Ma Rong and 
Tanzen Lhundup,  "Survey of Lhasa's Floating Population" in the 
4/2006 issue of N.W. Ethno-National Studies.) 
 
Ethnic Han Working in Construction, Agriculture 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
 
¶14.  (C) Although anecdotal evidence suggests that many ethnic 
Han migrants are working on construction projects, Chinese 
officials are reluctant to even express even an estimate of the 
proportion of ethnic Han working on any given project, as 
mentioned above.  However, Congenoffs riding the 
Qinghai-to-Tibet train in March 2007 were told that 80% of 
passengers on their packed train going into Tibet were laborers 
going to work in the TAR, another 10 to 15 percent were military 
or police, and the remainder were Chinese and foreign tourists 
(ref D). 
 
PRC Academics On Lhasa's Floating Population 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
¶15. (SBU) Recent articles by PRC academics provide some inside 
information on the TAR's floating population drawn from TAR 
Public Security, Tourism Bureau, and Family Planning Office data 
as well as surveys by scholars.  Their work not only illuminates 
the issue but also provides an indication of advice that Chinese 
leaders are getting on this issue. 
 
¶16. (SBU) Ref B is a summary translation of Sichuan University 
Tibetology Department PhD student Bao Dong's article in the 
November 2007 issue of Tibetan Studies (Xizang Yanjiu) "Analysis 
of Lhasa's Floating Population After the Opening of the Qinghai 
Tibet Railway."  According to Bao's report, President Hu Jintao 
directed more studies and better management of the TAR's 
floating population, and several internal conferences on this 
topic have been held.  Bao's article draws together diverse 
sources including Tourism Bureau, Public Security Bureau, and 
Family Planning Office data and estimates to characterize 
Lhasa's floating population, which is about half of the total 
floating population of the Tibetan Autonomous Region.  The 
article claims before the opening of the Qinghai-Tibet Railroad 
in June of 2006, Lhasa's floating population was 70,000 - 80,000 
in the off season and about 170,000 in the May - November high 
season.  After the railroad began operations, the city's 
floating population peaks seasonally at 200,000. 
 
¶17. (SBU) The March 2006 article coauthored by Peking University 
Demography Institute Director and Brown University PhD Ma Rong, 
a longtime student of China's minority area populations, and 
Tibetan scholar Tanzen Lhundup titled "Survey of Lhasa's 
Floating Population" which appeared in the April 2006 issue of 
Northwest Ethno-National Studies (Xibei Minzu Yanjiu), has been 
mentioned in Paragraph 13 above.  Based on 2005 field research 
(the year before the railroad opened), the report gives good 
sampling survey data on the composition and circumstances of the 
migrant workers in the TAR's floating population (although it 
ignores tourism, which as Bao Dong points out is an important 
component of Lhasa's floating population).  The article's 
migrant worker sampling survey data is from December 2005 during 
the sharp seasonal dip in the floating population.  Ma Rong 
concludes with a warning that China's western development policy 
in the TAR and other western areas increases the likelihood of 
conflict over culture and religion between ethnic Han Chinese 
and minority peoples as well as competition with them for 
 
CHENGDU 00000298  004.2 OF 005 
 
 
resources and employment. 
 
¶18. (C) Comment.  Ma Rong's article is useful but too narrow for 
accurately assessing the floating population issue in Lhasa. 
However, taking the two articles together, it seems evident that 
the rise in the TAR's floating population has been recognized by 
academics as a serious problem for many years, which has now 
been accelerated by the coming of the railroad.  End comment. 
 
Tourist Congestion at Lhasa Airport May Have Pushed Out the PLA 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
----------------------- 
 
¶19. (C) Massive increases in tourism to the TAR is likely just 
as important as migrant workers in its impact on Tibet.  Indeed, 
one sign of tourist overload in Lhasa was the recent comment in 
PLA Daily by a PLA military officer in late November that, to 
take pressure off Lhasa's Gongar Airport, henceforth the 
military would use the "Three Airfields and One Train" to move 
troops in and out of Tibet.  According to a November PLA Daily 
report, PLA troops stage in the Chengdu airport to get 
high-altitude and high-plateau familiarization training before 
going to the TAR.  Now the flights taking PLA soldiers in and 
out of the TAR will go to Chamdo and Linzhi airports as well as 
to the Lhasa airport.  Another press report quoted a military 
spokesman who said the train is cheaper.   (Note: Every evening 
a train leaves the Chengdu North railroad station for Lhasa on a 
44-hour trip that first runs north to Lanzhou to connect to the 
Qinghai-Tibet railway.  The Chengdu-Lhasa link serves not only 
the military and tourists but also migrant workers from Sichuan 
Province.  End note.) 
 
Effects on Tibetans 
----------------------- 
 
¶20.  (SBU) A concern frequently voiced in the ethnic Tibetan 
community is that, despite noticeable economic growth led by 
both massive government capital expenditures and increased 
tourism, Tibetans are being left behind and missing out on many 
new job opportunities as Mandarin language skills become even 
more important.  Recent open source reports cited below would 
seem to support this concern: 
 
-- According to a 2004 Xinhua press report, ethnic Tibetan 
peasants are 40% illiterate and often speak only little 
Mandarin.  They are often out-competed for work by more 
qualified peasants from the Chinese interior and often earn only 
half as much.  The report concluded that after the railroad is 
completed, speaking Mandarin will be essential to getting a job 
in the TAR. 
 
-- A more specific example is the training reported in the Tibet 
Daily of tour guides from the Chinese interior to go to the TAR 
to become tour guides as part of the campaign to "Assist Tibet." 
 Some ethnic Tibetan tour guides complain that they are losing 
business to these "outside" tour guides brought in from other 
areas of China. 
 
Comment:  The Train, Marketization and Political Control 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
----------- 
 
¶21.  (C) Numerous sources appear to support the conclusion that 
migrants have been going to the TAR in large numbers for many 
years.  Taken as a whole, and given the fact that the sources 
quoted above are dealing with a highly sensitive subject, it 
also seems that the completion of the railroad has led to a 
significant rise in the number of Han migrants looking for 
economic opportunities as well as a dramatic increase in the 
number of tourists present (and the 10% growth rate in the 
floating population cited above is likely a conservative 
estimate). 
 
¶22. (C) One seldom-discussed effect of the railroad is an 
increased flow of cheaper goods into the TAR, which may be 
fueling a disruptive change in the TAR's retail economy. 
Another associated effect of the increase in the floating 
population is a rise in tensions between Han and ethnic 
Tibetans, which may be leading to overreactions by local Han and 
police to small incidents. 
 
¶23.  (C) As the central government tends to focus on economic 
development as the solution to the TAR's social and political 
problems, it appears be saying "Let Tibetans get rich as long as 
they become good Chinese along the way."  Some in the CCP may 
expect that development will change everyone's thinking, since 
 
CHENGDU 00000298  005.2 OF 005 
 
 
according to Lenin, religious belief will fade with development 
and higher education. (ref  E). 
 
¶24. (C) Many ethnic Tibetans, as determined idealists and devout 
believers in a religion that is the traditional basis of their 
society, however, are far less likely to adhere to the official 
Communist line than are the Han Chinese who have been sent to 
the TAR to implement it.  In the TAR, people whose jobs and 
incomes don't depend on the government, such as herders and 
monks, are already the people least likely to accept the Party 
line.  Ironically, the Party may well find Marx working against 
it as more urban Tibetans get jobs in a real market economy as 
opposed to remaining dependent upon jobs in the heretofore 
extravagantly government subsidized urban economy. 
HILL