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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 002273 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD 
DEPT PASS TO AID/OTI RPORTER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2017 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE
SUBJECT: REFERENDUM ELECTORAL CONDITIONS A POTENTIALLY 
LOOMING PROBLEM 
 
CARACAS 00002273  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT DOWNES FOR 1.4 (D) 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary:  While not a main focus of the referendum 
campaign, widespread concern over electoral conditions 
remains, and could become a central issue if the opposition, 
which believes it has a chance to win, refuses to accept a 
result which has the no vote losing by a sizable margin.  The 
National Electoral Council (CNE) has tried unsuccessfully to 
present itself as a neutral arbiter, but has not yet 
addressed many issues raised during the 2006 presidential 
election, such as the quality of the voter rolls and uneven 
media coverage of the "Yes" and "No" campaigns.  The lack of 
international observers to hear complaints and corroborate 
the "Yes" and "No" camps' versions of events may make a 
difference in either group's reaction to the results.  In the 
end, however, it appears the opposition has decided the CNE 
has met a diminimus level of acceptability, hence their 
decision to urge voters to the polls.  End summary. 
 
--------------------------------- 
Conditions Not a Priority, So Far 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C) Though not a central theme in the referendum 
campaign, widespread concern about election conditions still 
persists.  During the November 29 "No" campaign's final rally 
when student leader Freddy Guevara asked the crowd whether 
they trusted the National Electoral Council (CNE), he 
received a resounding "No."  Several recent electoral polls 
also show a decline in support for the CNE compared to before 
the December 2006 Presidential elections.  Yet, neither the 
government nor the opposition have publicly focused on 
electoral conditions.  The short electoral period, the CNE's 
willingness to maintain concessions made during the December 
2006 presidential elections, and concern about scaring away 
potential voters (which would harm opposition victory 
prospects) likely account for much of the opposition's 
minimizing of electoral issues.  Despite the short lead time 
in the run up to the referendum, post's opposition contacts 
say they are generally satisfied with the eight audits they 
have participated in.  During a November 30 meeting, Baruta 
Mayor Henrique Capriles Radonski told PolCouns and Poloff 
that the opposition was less concerned with the conditions 
the CNE agreed to, as with "conventional fraud," such as 
ghost voting.  He and most other opposition contacts say the 
key is in ensuring that electoral witnesses are present at a 
majority of the voting stations. 
 
¶3.  (C) The CNE has tried to assure voters that the electoral 
system is secure and transparent, and that the CNE is a 
neutral arbiter.  At the beginning of the campaign, the CNE 
published a list of concessions made in 2006 that would be 
maintained this year as well as some "new" features, 
including televised national debates, limited financing for 
both campaigns, new audits, and a guarantee that Plan 
Republica electoral security participants will not be at 
electoral tables.  Nevertheless, some of the "new" features 
are not new, do not address concerns from last year, or were 
not implemented.  For example, the CNE highlighted an audit 
of the indelible ink used to prevent people from voting 
multiple times as a new feature.  In 2006, the ink was 
audited, but the opposition complained that the ink used on 
election day was not the one audited and easily could be 
wiped off.  (Note: Some informal Embassy observers noted the 
same.)  Additionally, the CNE still did not address 
opposition concerns about massive inaccuracies in the voter 
rolls and did not allow greater access to voter data.  The 
CNE also did not host televised debates, claiming the "No" 
camp refused to participate when it fact it was the BRV that 
bowed out. 
 
¶4.  (C) Some CNE decisions have also shown a pro-government 
bias as in years past.  According to the CNE's own Political 
Participation and Finance Commission, approximately 104 hours 
of television and radio advertisements have advocated the 
"Yes" vote compared to only 39 hours for the "No" vote.  An 
opposition group monitoring campaign media coverage told "El 
Universal" November 27 that advertisements for the "No" vote 
had virtually disappeared from government run and affiliated 
media networks towards the end of November.  While the CNE 
has publicized punitive actions taken against both campaigns, 
they have yet to address the media imbalance. 
 
--------------------- 
Other Issues to Watch 
--------------------- 
 
CARACAS 00002273  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶5.  (C) There are other factors that differ from past 
elections that, while not an issue pre-referendum, could 
become an issue if the opposition does not recognize defeat: 
 
--International Observers: This year will be the first 
election since 2004 in which no independent international 
observer teams will participate.  Although both blocs were 
allowed to invite up to 20 notable personalities, as it has 
done in the past, the CNE is inviting between 100-120 
individual international observers from approximately 39 
countries, diluting the impact of any concerns issued by 
opposition invitees. 
 
--Poll Workers: The CNE decided to use the same poll workers 
from last year, due to the short preparation time for the 
referendum.  Normally, these poll workers are supposed to be 
chosen at random.  It is unclear what percentage of those 
workers are pro-opposition; the opposition is claiming a 
disproportionate number are from pro-government groups.  In 
addition, the opposition is still struggling to get their 
electoral witnesses accredited by the CNE. 
 
--CANTV: CANTV's traditional role in transmitting the results 
from polling stations is further complicated now that, since 
the December 2006 election, the telecommunications company 
has become government owned.  While trying not to sound 
alarmist or conspiratorial, Sumate leader Roberto Abdul told 
Poloff November 30 that the president of CANTV is the sister 
of the head of the CNE's technical department.  He thought 
that relationship could raise new doubts about transparency. 
 
--Other tricks: Past issues that could also arise include 
selective application of rules regarding the opening and 
closing of polls, delays caused by the digital fingerprint 
scanners in traditionally pro-opposition areas, early 
transmission of data, and voters using multiple cedulas 
(identity cards) to vote. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶6.  (C) While not a major focus for the opposition right now, 
electoral conditions will likely become an issue 
post-referendum, particularly if it is in fact a close 
contest, or if the confident opposition refuses to accept a 
result claiming a substantial pro-government victory margin. 
The lack of international observers to hear complaints and 
corroborate the "Yes" and "No" camps' versions of electoral 
events may make a difference in either group's reaction to 
the results.  Suspicions over electoral transparency will 
also likely contribute to a re-fracturing of the opposition 
after the vote, as abstentionists might blame traditional 
opposition leaders for once again legitimizing what they see 
as a completely fraudulent electoral system.  In the end, 
however, it appears the opposition has determined the CNE has 
met diminimus (if far from ideal) standards, thus justifying 
its decision to urge its supporters to vote on Sunday. 
 
 
DUDDY