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PP RUEHPT
DE RUEHBY #1741 3440605
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 100605Z DEC 07
FM AMEMBASSY CANBERRA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8702
INFO RUEHBN/AMCONSUL MELBOURNE PRIORITY 4790
RUEHPT/AMCONSUL PERTH PRIORITY 3080
RUEHDN/AMCONSUL SYDNEY PRIORITY 2972
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

UNCLAS CANBERRA 001741 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV AS
SUBJECT: FINAL VOTE COUNT GIVES LABOR NARROWER WIN 
 
REF: CANBERRA 1678 
 
 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  With the vote count in several of the 
most closely contested seats in the November 24 federal 
election almost complete, it appears the Australian Labor 
Party (ALP) increased its margin by 24 seats, giving it 84 of 
the 150 seats in the House of Representatives - a comfortable 
majority but not as large as some observers had anticipated 
on election night (reftel).  The Liberal-National Party 
Coalition is likely to hold 64 seats and independents the 
remaining two seats.  Once the pre-poll and postal votes were 
counted after election day, the Coalition was able to retain 
seats some thought it had lost and even win an ALP-held seat 
in Western Australia.  Although the Senate count is more 
difficult to predict, it is likely the composition of the new 
76-seat Senate will be 37 for the Coalition, 32 for the ALP, 
five for the Green Party, one for Family First and one 
independent.  At the next election, the Coalition will need 
to gain only 11 or 12 seats to win back a majority - at face 
value an easier task than what Prime Minister Kevin Rudd had 
faced, but in reality more difficult as first term 
governments are rarely thrown out in Australia. END SUMMARY. 
 
SEATS STATUS 
 
¶2. (U) With 93 percent of the vote counted, the ALP is on 
track to win 84 seats in the House of Representatives, the 
Coalition 64 and independents two.  The ALP won the Victorian 
seat of McEwen, held by former Tourism Minister Fran Bailey, 
by just seven votes.  The Liberal Party will ask for a 
recount and if it prevails, the ALP would hold only 83 seats. 
 According to the Australian Electoral Commission, counting 
for the House is likely to conclude this week.   The Senate 
count, because of its complex proportional voting rules, 
usually takes longer but most observers believe it will 
produce a Senate with the Coalition holding 37 seats, the ALP 
32, Greens five, Family First one, and one independent. When 
the new Senate begins sitting in July, the Coalition's 
majority will end -- but the ALP will need the support of all 
five Green senators and either the Family First or 
independent senator to pass legislation if the Coalition 
opposes it as a block. 
 
NOT AS BAD FOR THE COALITION 
 
¶3. (U) At the end of election night, some media were 
reporting a 6.3 percent swing to the ALP and the seat counts 
of the television stations had the ALP winning as many as 88 
seats.  Over the next two weeks, however, as absentee, 
pre-poll and postal votes (up to 20 percent of the total in 
some electorates) were counted, the Liberal Party took the 
lead in several seats where it had been trailing.  Liberal 
MPs in the Queensland seats of Dickson, Herbert and Bowman, 
who were predicted to lose on election night, will almost 
certainly hold on.  The Liberal Party will also win the 
suburban Perth seat of Swan, previously held by the ALP's Kim 
Wilkie.  Former Prime Minister John Howard ultimately lost 
his seat of Bennelong by over 2,000 votes, a little more than 
two percent of the total vote in the electorate.  The latest 
count gives the ALP 52.85 percent of the two-party preferred 
vote, and the Coalition 47.15 - a swing of 5.6 percent to the 
ALP.  With the closeness of the final vote, the Coalition 
only needs a uniform swing of just over two percent at the 
next federal election to win the 11 or 12 seats required to 
win back a majority. 
 
BUT NOT MUCH SOLACE FOR DIVIDED LIBERALS 
 
¶4. (SBU) COMMENT: At face value, the Coalition faces an 
Q4. (SBU) COMMENT: At face value, the Coalition faces an 
easier task to win government than the ALP did.  The ALP 
needed almost a five percent uniform swing and pick-up of 16 
seats.  Historically, however, first term governments in 
Australia are rarely thrown out of office.  Additionally, the 
Liberal Party is plagued by divisions at both the state and 
federal level.  Seeking to reform and strengthen the Party, 
Federal Leader Brendan Nelson has announced an inquiry into 
the operation of the party's state branches and the president 
of the party's organizational wing is being urged to step 
aside.  On the other hand, there is usually some swing 
against a federal government after its first-term, and the 
Australian electorate has become more volatile.  Knowing that 
a small shift in sentiment across a dozen or so marginal 
seats could cost the ALP its governing majority, Rudd will be 
as determined as ever to hold the political center as he 
governs. 
 
MCCALLUM