VZCZCXRO1844
OO RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHRL #2152/01 3370919
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 030919Z DEC 07
FM AMEMBASSY BERLIN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9935
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHMFIUU/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 BERLIN 002152 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL SENV KGHG ENRG GM
SUBJECT: CLIMATE CHANGE -- GERMAN OPINION AHEAD OF UN 
CLIMATE CHANGE CONFERENCE 
 
REF: A. REFTEL A: STATE 159374 
 
     ¶B. REFTEL B: BERLIN 01896 
     ¶C. REFTEL C: BERLIN 02135 
 
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Summary 
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¶1.  (SBU) The Germans have endorsed a roadmap approach at 
Bali that is not dissimilar to that of the U.S. (Reftel A), 
but Chancellor Merkel's government is committing itself to 
increasingly ambitious environmental objectives that could 
challenge the U.S. position in Bali and other international 
negotiations. Climate change remains a major issue in 
Germany; support for drastic measures to reduce greenhouse 
gas (GHG) emissions cuts across all party lines and societal 
strata.  Merkel has made climate change one of the signature 
issues of her Chancellorship (Reftel B).  She -- along with 
most other German political leaders -- supports mandatory, 
targeted global limits on GHG emissions supported by an 
international cap-and-trade regime.  The Chancellor has been 
in the forefront of those calling for dramatic reductions in 
GHG emissions in Germany, the EU and globally.  She favors a 
system that would link permissible GHG emissions to 
population, rather than measuring GHG intensity by linking 
emissions to units of GDP.  The German government has, 
nonetheless, demonstrated a willingness to consider 
alternative solutions and to consider the potential positive 
role of new technologies, including renewable energy sources 
and clean coal technologies.  The Germans plan to announce a 
120 million euro contribution to be used for technology 
transfer to developing countries at Bali. The Germans were 
somewhat skeptical, yet willing, participants in the 
September Major Economies Meeting, and appear willing to work 
with the U.S. as we focus on more flexible approaches to 
climate change.  End Summary. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
German Retrospective on the Major Economies Meeting (MEM) 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
¶2.  (SBU) While Germany thought the MEM was a modest success, 
our interlocutors have expressed some disappointment over the 
apparent unwillingnesss of the U.S. to adopt more concrete 
objectives. On November 7, we reviewed German impressions of 
the MEM with Karsten Sach, Deputy Director General for 
International Cooperation in the Environment Ministry.  In 
Sach's view, too much time at the MEM was set aside for 
presentations.  He said that attendees already know the 
issues and the positions of the various parties. The 
discussion on the last day of the MEM was better, although 
there was disappointment in the room about the lack of 
concrete proposals presented by the U.S.  Sach also lamented 
the perceived back-tracking of the U.S. position after 
Heiligendamm, explaining that the U.S. had gone back to the 
same climate change presentations that had been used long 
before the G-8 Summit. "It would have been better if the U.S. 
had made more movement all summer instead of going 
backwards," he said.  Sach believed using the phrases 
"process" and "willingness to consider" were not movement 
enough and the U.S. really needs to set specific emissions 
reduction targets. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) We also discussed the MEM with Martin Bergfelder, 
the Desk Officer for Climate Change Issues in the Foreign 
Ministry as well as his boss, Reinhard Krapp, on November 
28th. Bergfelder will attend the UNFCCC conference in Bali. 
While he was not present for the MEM, he had understood from 
his colleagues that, with the exception of the technology 
fund announcement, the U.S. did not have any concrete 
proposals during the MEM. The Germans, he said, are wondering 
what the specific U.S. climate change goals and contributions 
will be. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
German Short-Term Goals for Bali Deliverables 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) The Germans largely echo the U.S. position on the 
short-term goals to be achieved in Bali: to create a roadmap 
for future negotiations and to define the themes that will be 
discussed in these negotiations.  At a CDU/CSU Climate Change 
Conference on November 26th, Chancellor Merkel said that Bali 
should lead to a "binding" road map to discuss where to go in 
addressing climate change over the next two years and the 
instruments needed to get there.  Merkel also reiterated her 
support for an international trading system to lower GHG 
emissions. 
 
BERLIN 00002152  002 OF 004 
 
 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Peter Roesgen, Merkel's senior environment advisor 
in the Chancellery, told EMIN and ECONOFF that the themes in 
Bali should include technology transfer and carbon markets. 
He said it was also important to work on the relationship 
with emerging economies and developing countries; U.S. 
leadership was essential to ensure China's participation. 
While Roesgen did not expect that binding goals will be set 
in Bali, he thinks the parties should discuss the GHG 
emission reduction ranges recommended by the IPCC. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) The MFA's Bergfelder said that the Germans are in 
line with the EU and will focus on eight major themes in 
Bali, as decided by the EU environmental council in both 
February and October 2007 in Luxembourg.  Those themes are: 
1) a shared vision to reach a global long-term target; 2) 
deeper absolute cuts by developed countries; 3) further fair 
contributions by other countries; 4) expansion of carbon 
markets; 5) technology research and transfer; 6) action on 
adaptation; 7) aviation emissions; 8) deforestation. 
Environment Minister Sigmar Gabriel, in an address on 
November 28th to the Friedrich-Ebert Stiftung (the think tank 
for his SPD Party), said that deforestation will be a major 
focus in Bali. 
 
------------------------------------------ 
Germany's Ambitious Climate Change Targets 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶7.  (SBU) As the leader on environment within the EU, and as 
Europe's largest economy, Germany feels obligated to assume a 
disproportionate share of the continent's emission 
reductions. On this issue, there is little light between the 
positions of the coalition partners. Heidemarie 
Apel-Schmelter, senior staffer for the SPD environmental 
caucus working group in the German parliament, told us on 
November 28th that, while Germany is in line with EU goals, 
it recognizes that it must set higher targets for itself. 
Dr. Bergfelder explained that just as there was a previous 
redistribution among EU countries of their different 
responsibilities within the Kyoto Protocol 8% reduction goal, 
so will there be a similar EU internal redistribution in any 
post-2012 reduction goals. Thus, when the EU agreed this year 
to a 20% GHG reduction goal for 2020 (Reftel C), Germany 
declared it would make a 30% reduction. If the EU moves to a 
30% GHG reduction goal (as it will if other OECD countries 
agree), then Germany will commit to a 40% GHG reduction. In 
August 2007, the governing CDU/SPD coalition agreed to the 29 
point Meseberg Plan.  This plan lays out the specific 
measures the German government will use to achieve a 36% 
reduction in carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) by 2020. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Germany has thought carefully about the specific 
measures it will use to achieve its own targets. 
Apel-Schmelter explained that most of Germany's GHG reduction 
goals will concern CO2, as Germany emits relatively little of 
the other GHGs.  The Meseberg measures primarily rely on 
increasing energy efficiency and the use of renewables. 
Apel-Schmelter explained that specific sectoral approaches 
will be used to address those additional GHG emitted from the 
specific industries that generate them. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Germany is putting its money where its mouth is. 
Minister Gabriel announced that the German government is 
developing a package of 15 climate change-related measures 
that will be introduced in parliament on December 5.  This 
package includes changes to the renewable energy law, 
increases in the supply of biofuels and regulations that 
require labeling of automobiles.  Finally, Gabriel will make 
the announcement during the Bali conference that Germany will 
give 120 million euros - gained through the auction of 
emissions trading certificates -- to support developing 
countries in their efforts to address climate change (via 
Clean Development Mechanism projects, renewables and 
technology).  He expects this to be an annual contribution. 
In the long-term (by 2050), Merkel believes carbon dioxide 
emissions should be limited to two tons per person per year. 
 
---------------------------------------- 
------------------------------------------- 
German Patience Wearing Thin: High Hopes for Significant U.S. 
Deliverables post-Bali 
---------------------------------------- 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶10.  (SBU) While expressing understanding for the U.S. 
approach to climate change, our German Government 
interlocutors stress the urgent need for the U.S. to take 
 
BERLIN 00002152  003 OF 004 
 
 
additional significant steps forward.  Environment Minister 
Gabriel has cited the Montreal Protocol concerning 
chlorofluorocarbons and argued that, since the U.S. accepts 
other internationally binding commitments, it doesn't make 
sense for the U.S. not to accept them with respect to climate 
change.  In her speech to CDU/CSU party members, Chancellor 
Merkel said that it was "sad" that the U.S. had not ratified 
the Kyoto Protocol.  She said that all countries must work 
together and commit to reduction targets and that the world 
cannot stand around doing nothing for 20 years.  Referencing 
the Stern Report, Merkel said that the costs of taking no 
action on climate change would amount to 5%-20% of global 
GDP.  Roesgen also cited these Stern Report figures in his 
meeting with us and argued, by comparison, that the cost of 
taking action on climate change was only 1% of global GDP. 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
Sequencing and Burden Sharing: Echoes of Kyoto 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Germany expects the U.S. to take on more 
responsibilities than other countries. German officials 
believe that U.S. acceptance of GHG reduction goals is 
critical to winning the engagement of emerging economies like 
China, India, Brazil and Mexico.  In her November 26th 
speech, Merkel used the term first coined in the 1995 COP-1 
Berlin Mandate and embodied in the COP-3 Kyoto Protocol: 
"common but differentiated."  The Germans are convinced that 
if the world sees that the U.S. is committed to combating 
climate change, emerging economies such as India and China 
will begin to move.  Roesgen said that the U.S. must play a 
leading role on climate change, "when the U.S. agrees, only 
then is the basis good for others to agree."  But emerging 
economies should be expected to make a "fair contribution" in 
line with their circumstances.  Sach said that "Germany and 
the U.S. must lead by example."  While developing countries 
need to participate more deeply, "their contributions will be 
different in kind" than developed countries. 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
Making Connections Beyond the Executive Branch 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶12.  (SBU) The Germans are speaking openly about support from 
constituencies in the U.S. besides the Executive Branch.  Dr. 
Sach cited the International Carbon Action Partnership (ICAP 
- which includes the U.S. states of California, Maine, 
Maryland, New York, New Jersey, Arizona, Oregon, Washington 
and New Mexico) as one example.  He also said Germans were 
carefully following Congressional proposals as well as 
reviewing the issue papers of the leading U.S. presidential 
contenders.  He cited the 80% GHG emission reduction goal of 
Senator Hillary Clinton in particular. Minister Gabriel said 
that it was not just the Democratic presidential contenders 
who were addressing climate change, but all the Republican 
candidates had proposals as well.  Gabriel mentioned the 
interest of the U.S. business community in emissions trading 
and he also expressed pleasure that U.S. senators and 
congressional representatives were heading to Bali. 
 
¶13.  (SBU) Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier -- a 
possible SPD contender for the Chancellery in 2009 -- also 
made reference to the ICAP in a November 28th speech. He said 
it was just a matter of time before additional states became 
more involved in emissions trading.  During a meeting on 
November 20th, Uwe Traeger and Cornelia Droste, staffers on 
the CDU/CSU environmental working group within the Bundestag, 
asked well-informed questions about climate change 
initiatives taken on a local and regional level in the U.S. 
The state of California was routinely cited as a climate 
change leader.  In addition, specific Congressional 
proprosals for a tax on carbon dioxide emissions are being 
followed attentively by German officials. 
 
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Comment 
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¶14.  (SBU) The support for strong environmental reform 
crosses party lines in Germany. If anything, the SPD is 
pressing Merkel for even tougher measures to cut emissions. 
And although some energy intensive industries have 
criticisms, there is virtually no opposition to Merkel's 
climate change position from the German public. End Comment. 
 
 
 
 
BERLIN 00002152  004 OF 004 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
TIMKEN JR