VZCZCXRO8160
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #1718/01 3551608
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 211608Z DEC 07 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1955
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC 1410
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
RHMFISS/CDR USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RHMFISS/CDRUSNATO AFSOUTHBN NAPLES IT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 001718 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O.12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KBTS KPAO SR MW KV
SUBJECT: KOSTUNICA'S OPTIONS: ELECTIONS AND KOSOVO 
 
REF: BELGRADE 1050 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) Prime Minister Kostunica has two key decisions to make: 
whether to endorse President Tadic's reelection bid and how to 
proceed with a parliamentary resolution on Kosovo.  On Friday, 
December 21, Kostunica's party unexpectedly withdrew from the 
parliamentary session, effectively suspending all election and 
Kosovo-related decisions until next week.  While these issues will 
highlight differences between Kostunica and Tadic's parties, neither 
appears likely to threaten their ruling coalition.  We expect 
Kostunica will not call for a boycott of the presidential elections, 
but will refrain from endorsing Tadic.  Next week, the Radicals will 
try to use a parliamentary resolution to lock the government into 
enacting harsh, scripted consequences to Kosovo's independence or to 
paint the ruling parties as "traitors" if they protest.  The 
resolution may preview the Radicals' presidential campaign strategy 
to show voters as Tadic is weak and ready to give up Kosovo. End 
Summary. 
 
DSS on the Sidelines 
--------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Kostunica's Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) will decide 
over the weekend of December 22 whether to support President Tadic 
and his Democratic Party (DS) for the January 20, 2008 elections. 
DSS Vice President Milos Aligrudic told poloff December 20 that his 
party would probably neither support nor oppose Tadic's candidacy. 
Elections would go forward, Aligrudic said, due to the "political 
reality" that both the DS and Radicals support them, neutralizing 
the DSS's legal objections from last week.  Aligrudic added that he 
was "95% sure" that New Serbia (NS) president Velimir Ilic will not 
run for president, meaning the DSS will avoid having to decide 
whether to endorse its main political partner (DSS and NS formed a 
pre-election coalition last year). 
 
Parliament to Debate Kosovo 
--------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Next week, the Serbian parliament will hear a report from 
the GOS Kosovo negotiating team (headed by Kosovo Minister Samardzic 
and Foreign Minister Jeremic) in the wake of the conclusion of the 
Troika process and UNSC meeting on Kosovo on December 19. 
Parliament could also pass a resolution on Kosovo as early as 
December 26.  Aligrudic said the DS was "understandably cautious" 
about the pending resolutino, since he predicted the Radicals would 
push to lock in harsh steps that Serbia must take if Kosovo 
declared, and countries recognized, independence.  Aligrudic 
assessed that the Radicals would try to use the resolution to 
accomplish two objectives: make the DS either commit to these steps 
or be branded as "traitors," and to try to strain the DS-DSS ruling 
coalition. 
 
What to Expect from Resolution 
------------------------------ 
 
¶4. (SBU) The resolution will likely call for more Kosovo status 
negotiations, reiterate Serbia's opposition to an EU Mission in 
Kosovo (or any replacement of UNMIK) without a new UN Security 
Council resolution, and require the GOS to react if countries 
recognize a Kosovo declaration of independence.  Kosovo State 
Secretary Dusan Prorokovic told poloff December 20 that the GOS 
 
SIPDIS 
would meet with parties and key ministries to consult on the 
content, as with previous resolutions.  In his view, the resolution 
would reflect Serbia's position that the UNSC meeting on December 19 
was the "first of many" discussions on Kosovo status, and that 
Kosovo status negotiations began in earnest only with the Troika 
process.  Prorokovic said that the Ahtisaari talks did not address 
status and were therefore "not real negotiations."  Prorokovic said 
Serbia would look to "Russia and certain European countries' 
support" for more talks with Pristina and the international 
community.  Parliament's last resolution on Kosovo, passed in late 
July 2007 (reftel), stopped short of defining what steps the GOS 
would take other than to "react vigorously."  This time, with 
looming presidential elections pitting the Radicals against the DS, 
the Radicals may insist on specific steps. 
 
Comment 
------ 
 
¶5. (SBU) The DSS admits it cannot stop or delay presidential 
elections while the DS and Radicals want to hold them in January. 
As the December 21 walkout shows, however, the DSS still wields key 
influence in parliament.  As long as the DSS believes the DS is not 
softening on Kosovo (the DSS's main concern), post expects the DSS 
to remain effectively neutral during the campaign but work for a 
 
BELGRADE 00001718  002 OF 002 
 
 
Kosovo resolution (barely) palatable to the DS.  The DSS will likely 
use next week's parliamentary sessions to ensure the DS holds the 
line on Kosovo but also to hold off Radical demands for harsh 
consequences against countries that recognize its declaration of 
independence. End comment. 
 
MUNTER