VZCZCXRO6562
PP RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO
DE RUEHYD #1308/01 3061341
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 021341Z NOV 07
FM AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8283
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE PRIORITY 0030
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 1663
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY 1943
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/DIA WASHDC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 YAOUNDE 001308 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/C AND INR/AA 
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA ACTION OFFICERS 
EUCOM FOR J5-1 AND POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2017 
TAGS: CM PREL PINR ECON KCOR PGOV PHUM TBIO
SUBJECT: CAMEROON:  BIYA STILL AN ENIGMA AFTER 25 YEARS 
 
Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Scott Ticknor for reasons 1.4 b and d. 
 
¶1.  (C)  Summary:  Nationwide events on November 6 will fete 
the anniversary of Cameroonian President Paul Biya's 25 years 
in office.  Biya survived over two decades filled with 
political turmoil and economic crisis.  While preserving 
unity and a measure of stability, he has performed poorly in 
governance, investing in people and improving the country's 
business climate.  Discussion will quickly turn next week to 
Biya's plans for the future.  He is due to step down in 2011. 
 However, he is famously enigmatic, as reinforced in a rare 
international interview on October 30.  The next year will be 
crucial in determining whether Biya is serious about reforms 
and is steering Cameroon toward a peaceful transition or a 
political crisis.  End summary. 
 
-------------------------- 
A Historical Retrospective 
-------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U)  On November 4, 1982 former President Ahmadou Ahidjo 
surprised the nation with the announcement he was stepping 
down after 24 years as Head of State.  Two days later, his 
constitutional successor, Prime Minister Paul Biya, took over 
as president.  For the next decade, Biya survived a series of 
crises.  In the mid-1980s he weathered a power struggle with 
Ahidjo (who tried unsuccessfully to unseat him) and a coup 
attempt.  In the late 1980s, falling international commodity 
prices (especially cocoa and oil) compounded problems of 
capital flight, corruption, and structural weaknesses to 
cripple the economy.  The economic crisis, the lack of 
democracy and the changing global environment (including the 
fall of communism in the former Soviet Union and Eastern 
Europe) spurred major social unrest in Cameroon in 1990-92. 
 
¶3.  (U)  In response, President Biya began a slow reform 
process.  In 1988 he began an IMF structural adjustment 
process that helped revive the economy.  He allowed the 
country's first multiparty elections (1992 -- though the 
verdict was badly tainted), implemented the devaluation of 
the CFA currency to make the economy more competitive (1994), 
created a new, more liberal constitution  and allowed the 
first multiparty municipal elections (1996), held the first 
legislative and presidential elections (1997), and gradually 
liberalized the media.  He also opened up more to the outside 
world. 
 
¶4.  (C)  As a result, Biya's Cameroon in 2007 is a mixed 
story of largely unrealized potential.  Political space has 
opened up somewhat but corruption corrodes every aspect of 
society and all elections over the years have been seriously 
flawed.  The government welcomes investment but controls much 
of the economy.  The media is relatively free but civil 
society is feeble.  The Presidency makes most decisions and 
seems largely (though not totally) indifferent to the outside 
world.  Officials often highlight Cameroon's stability as its 
biggest achievement, especially in light of the country's 
great cultural diversity, divided anglophone/francophone 
history and unification process in 1972, and its tumultuous 
neighborhood.  However, there has been limited progress on 
social indicators and, while the per capita GDP of $970 is 
better than many African countries, poverty is pervasive. 
The high cost of living, poor job prospects, inadequate 
political freedom, and corruption have left many Cameroonians 
despondent. 
 
------------ 
Who is Biya? 
------------ 
 
¶5.  (C)  Biya is an enigmatic figure, seen by many as 
unpredictable and secretive about decision making  His 
hallmark characteristics are: 
 
-- Intelligence:  Biya is highly educated, urbane, 
intelligent and respectful of order.  A graduate of Paris' 
prestigious Sciences Po and a fast riser in former President 
Ahidjo's government, Biya is a product of the establishment. 
Despite his 74 years and reportedly ailing health, Biya 
nimbly answered questions in an October 30 interview with the 
France 24 news channel, never stumbling or stuttering as he 
provided detailed and thoughtful answers and effectively 
 
YAOUNDE 00001308  002 OF 003 
 
 
rebutted even implied criticism. 
 
-- Caution:  Biya is a cautious, largely reactive president 
who likely sees Cameroon's record of stability as his single 
greatest achievement, significant enough to diffuse all 
criticism of his regime.  Biya is a product of the 
established order; he is most comfortable in a French 
tailored suit and never knew the battle fatigues that brought 
some of his counterparts to power.  The 1984 coup attempt 
reportedly fundamentally altered Biya's initial liberalizing 
instincts and continues to shape his decision-making. 
 
-- Loose Grip on the State Machinery:  Decisions in Cameroon 
are highly centralized, but the power seems to be with the 
Presidency more than the President.  Biya has and perceives 
himself to have relatively limited power, often seeming out 
of loop on important decisions.  He has confessed privately 
that he does not know all the members of his cabinet or how 
they were chosen.  We know of a number of instances where 
parts of his government have delayed implementing his 
instructions or brazenly deceived him.  Biya is not even 
certain of support from powerful elements within his own 
ethnic group.  Despite the appearance of an ethnic Beti 
monolith supporting Biya, the Beti elite are fractured by 
competing networks of power. 
 
-- Patronage Politician:  While Biya appears to have let go 
of his bureaucracy, he has skillfully juggled different 
interest groups, keeping them invested in him without 
allowing any one to become too powerful or too disenchanted 
with their stake.  He relies heavily on a small circle of 
family and friends for advice and control of a network of 
patronage.  He has also carefully managed his military 
leadership, while in parallel cultivating an independent, 
better equipped presidential guard. 
 
-- Reform Minded:  While Biya is conservative about his 
domestic agenda and the world at large, he is often portrayed 
as relatively reform-minded within the ruling circles of 
power.  His own Beti ethnic group, for example, is among the 
strongest opponents of a reform agenda, especially one tied 
to democratic regime change.  He has allowed some 
democratization and taken some steps against corruption, at 
times against potent vested interests.  He has tolerated 
limited dissent and indiscipline from within and outside his 
government. 
 
---------------- 
Biya's Interview 
---------------- 
 
¶6.  (U)  As noted above, on October 30, Biya gave his first 
interview with a foreign media outlet (in this case France 24 
in Paris) in twenty years.  It provided a rare tour d'horizon 
of Biya's current thinking on a range of issues.  He hoped 
for continued support from France and noted that President 
Sarkozy had accepted an invitation to visit Cameroon (date 
undetermined).  He noted Cameroon's contribution of police in 
peace keeping efforts in Cote d'Ivoire, Darfur, Chad, DRC and 
Haiti, adding that with the Bakassi conflict resolved 
Cameroon could make a more substantial military contribution 
to these efforts. 
 
¶7.  (U)  On the domestic front, Biya stressed his commitment 
to combat corruption, pointing to recent successes like 
raising revenues at Douala port by cutting graft.  When asked 
about his view of the 2011 election and beyond, he stated 
that the election will happen and that the constitution, as 
currently written, does not permit him to have a third term, 
but averred that "I know constitutions are not set in stone". 
 He would let the people debate these issues.  He said he is 
not preparing anybody to take his place, noting that "in a 
republic, the word dauphin sounds bad."   He emphasized that 
he was in the middle of his second term and he saw the 
election as a lesser priority at this point than fighting 
corruption, HIV/AIDS, and poverty. (Note:  While Biya is in 
the middle of his second term since the 1996 constitution, he 
served additional terms as president under earlier charters. 
End note.) 
 
¶8.  (U)  Biya welcomed dialogue with opposition parties, 
saying he would meet with main opposition leader and head of 
 
YAOUNDE 00001308  003 OF 003 
 
 
the Social Democratic Front (SDF) John Fru Ndi (who "lost" 
the 1992 presidential election and whom Biya has never met). 
"Cameroon is changing," Biya stated; "I have only restarted 
an open politics ("politique d'ouverture") which is old but 
is, I think, useful in a young country like ours."  He said 
he had no objection to family desires to bury former 
President Ahidjo in Cameroon. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶9.  (C)  The big question on people's minds here, now and for 
the foreseeable future, is Biya's intentions for 2011 and 
beyond.  Many observers were disappointed (if not surprised) 
that in his France 24 interview Biya did not rule out 
changing the constitution or extending his term.  We were not 
surprised that he wants to keep his options open and people 
guessing, especially more than three years before the 
election.  In previous years, he has told us that a stated 
decision not to run in 2011 would complicate his ability to 
govern and could unleash major political battles he would 
prefer to deflect. 
 
¶10.  (C)  Many here suspect Biya will try to maneuver his way 
into another term.  This may be his plan, but he is truly 
unpredictable.  The safety of his family will be his 
overriding concern, closely followed to the stability of the 
country, which he will seek to preserve as his greatest 
achievement in office.  Given his age (78 in 2011), reported 
frail health (rumored prostate cancer), and apparent desire 
for slow political reform, it is plausible to us that that he 
will use the next few years to try to build his economic and 
political legacy and set the stage for an orderly transition 
of power in 2011.  He may try to prepare for succession to a 
trusted colleague whom he believes will competently manage 
the country's continued, gradual modernization and 
liberalization. 
 
¶11.  (C)  Cameroon's much-vaunted stability cannot be taken 
for granted.  Biya's management of this delicate transition, 
starting with his seriousness about reforms in the next year, 
will be crucial in determining the country's future for the 
next generation.  We expect he will make some progress on 
economic reforms and governance, but probably at at his usual 
glacial pace for fear of threatening stability.  We will 
continue to encourage him to act more deliberately to open 
the political space, liberalize the economy, and think more 
globally, while reinforcing the need for him to step down in 
2011 -- after 29 years in office -- and pave the way for a 
peaceful, democratic future. 
GARVEY